yoda Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I just hope they don't blow this for us and issue watches. They had already talked about issuing watches for Western CWA in morning disco... as in I-81 corridor and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 It's starting to get too complicated. I've been down this road too many times to count. Bombing miller b's have a habit of reducing our "easy" snow on the front and give us nothing on the back. Under 3" region wide is very much a possibility. I just wanted a simple 3-6. There is time for things to get right but I'm not feelin it like I was the last few days. Snow is never easy around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 If the model had you at 1.5" of liquid you'd stil be worried about the edge.History suggests way more threats don't work out then do so looking fir what could go wrong seems logical to me. I'm pragmatic about it. Unless it's 12 hours before the start of a feb 6 2010 storm I never relax and feel totally safe. Keeps me from having the monumental let down and melt down when something goes wrong because I was ready for it. We all cope with our demons in our own way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 24, 2015 Author Share Posted January 24, 2015 This is pretty awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Give me a couple minutes and I'll give you the breakdown of the entire event. For Westminster. Front end as follows. 6 hour period as you know ending is as follows . 0z Mon .01 6z Mon .07 12z Mon .04 18z Mon .05 0z Tue .02 6z Tue .03 This run looks a little too dry overall with the front end. Also we are in a weird precip hole after the first .08 falls starting 12z Mon lasting to 0z Tue. So it rips us off of about .07-.08 of qpf that every direction around us receives. Backend/coastal 12z Tue .04 18z Tue .10 0z Wed .12 6z Wed .01 Total Qpf. about .5 Manchester actually would be a little higher with the coastal part since we are a bit more east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 his reasoning rarely makes sense. norfolk would likely be a mix and rain, more so than snow. that's just the way it goes down there most of the time. annapolis sometimes gets more snow than areas further west, but not that often. you are in a bit of a tough spot, but if you want a lot of snow i hope it works out for you. If the Euro idea works out, I am just as likely to get screwed as places further inland. The low will likely develop slower and go neg tilt too late for anywhere down here. Philly north does well if the Euro scenario plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Snow is never easy around here. Truth. Wtf happened to overunning from the tn valley? Didn't that used to happen more often? That is easy snow and damn elusive nowadays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Putting too much faith in the latest deterministic EC run is risky, especially 36-72 hours out. HOWEVER, what I am keying on here is the westward and quicker TREND of the bombogenesis. Even the operational GFS and UK show the left trends, though obviously not to the extent as the EC. Can't wait to see the latest EC ensembles...and evaluate their trends. At this point, with a fluid Miller B such as this, the trend can certainly be your friend. Didn't you guys go through this with the Feb 10th 2010 system? (I was at WFO AKQ at the time...we got def banded, but not nearly to the extent as here in the DC area). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 24, 2015 Author Share Posted January 24, 2015 Truth. Wtf happened to overunning from the tn valley? Didn't that used to happen more often? That is easy snow and damn elusive nowadays.Gfs 228 as you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 These transfers never work out well for us as far as the coastal. We can get good snow as the low is traversing from our west toward us, then the energy transfer and by the time it gets going along the coast we miss it. 2-4" as the low approaches and then likely zip as it transfers, there are exceptions but 90% of the time the scenario is as just described. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Cross your fingers... 12z EPS are coming out now... and 18z NAM is running Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I fully expect last min changes to this. keeping your expectations in check is the best. don't let the inner weenie come out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Truth. Wtf happened to overunning from the tn valley? Didn't that used to happen more often? That is easy snow and damn elusive nowadays. Soo much easier when we have a blocky N. Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Putting too much faith in the latest deterministic EC run is risky, especially 36-72 hours out. HOWEVER, what I am keying on here is the westward and quicker TREND of the bombogenesis. Even the operational GFS and UK show the left trends, though obviously not to the extent as the EC. Can't wait to see the latest EC ensembles...and evaluate their trends. At this point, with a fluid Miller B such as this, the trend can certainly be your friend. Didn't you guys go through this with the Feb 10th 2010 system? (I was at WFO AKQ at the time...we got def banded, but not nearly to the extent as here in the DC area). I think our fate lies in how far off the coast the boundary sits from last night's storm. I'm not sure we'll know that until tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I fully expect last min changes to this. keeping your expectations in check is the best. don't let the inner weenie come out The more I look at the Euro, the more that Dec 2010 haunts me (not actually a Miller B, but it effectively acted like one for our area) I think most of us know how these systems usually work out for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 It's starting to get too complicated. I've been down this road too many times to count. Bombing miller b's have a habit of reducing our "easy" snow on the front and give us nothing on the back. Under 3" region wide is very much a possibility. I just wanted a simple 3-6. There is time for things to get right but I'm not feelin it like I was the last few days. This Maybe we spook too easy and are panicking for nothing, but I'm bracing myself. Been down here long enough to know the script when complications and transfers enter the picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 If this becomes a Miller B monster that shafts DC and west (relatively speaking), then I may have to stay away for the day. Best for everyone involved. Best news of the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 This Maybe we spook too easy and are panicking for nothing, but I'm bracing myself. Been down here long enough to know the script when complications and transfers enter the picture. At least enjoy the nice run for a while. Never seen such negativity after a good run. I think some of you would have been better off if the euro was a total miss screwjob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC249 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015MDZ004-005-503-505-VAZ028-031-505-WVZ052-053-250400-/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0001.150126T0200Z-150127T0200Z/FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY-NORTHWEST HOWARD-FREDERICK VA-CLARKE-WESTERN LOUDOUN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER...GERMANTOWN...DAMASCUS...LISBON...WINCHESTER...PURCELLVILLE...MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN249 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGHMONDAY EVENING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HASISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAYEVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES.* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES.* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN SUNDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGHLATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR BETWEENMIDNIGHT AND 8 AM MONDAY.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S.* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BE SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY WITHVISIBILITIES BEING REDUCED TO NEAR ONE-QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.THE COMBINATION OF SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITY WILLMAKE TRAVELING DANGEROUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The more I look at the Euro, the more that Dec 2010 haunts me (not actually a Miller B, but it effectively acted like one for our area) I think most of us know how these systems usually work out for us. The difference here is that it is a pretty good bet you're going to see accumulating snow and probably at least a couple inches. Sure we all maybe looking from the outside if and I emphasize if the storms looks anything like what was just shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 For Westminster. Front end as follows. 6 hour period as you know ending is as follows . 0z Mon .01 6z Mon .07 12z Mon .04 18z Mon .05 0z Tue .02 6z Tue .03 This run looks a little too dry overall with the front end. Also we are in a weird precip hole after the first .08 falls starting 12z Mon lasting to 0z Tue. So it rips us off of about .07-.08 of qpf that every direction around us receives. Backend/coastal 12z Tue .04 18z Tue .10 0z Wed .12 6z Wed .01 Total Qpf. about .5 Manchester actually would be a little higher with the coastal part since we are a bit more east. I interpret that as probably 1-2" front end then 4-5" back end with high ratios. I would be ok with that the problem us we all know the bust potential if this shifts east at all. Of course with the h5 track I could see a compromise if the ggem/ec and we are happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 This Maybe we spook too easy and are panicking for nothing, but I'm bracing myself. Been down here long enough to know the script when complications and transfers enter the picture. You have to play to win. We're all suckers here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The more I look at the Euro, the more that Dec 2010 haunts me (not actually a Miller B, but it effectively acted like one for our area) I think most of us know how these systems usually work out for us. yea falling back on your history and outcomes on previous storms is best. models are fun to look at but rely on past experiences to temper expectations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The euro ensemble mean has the same look as the operational, backs the precipitation back into DC. Has quite a few panels with .10" or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I see 48 on EPS mean on WB... but Zwyts/Bob... help showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 996 MSLP 00z TUE ~150 miles east of ORF... yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 So Watch up for N and W burbs. I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane M. Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 ECMWF ens Looks somewhat similar to op. Throws mod precip at Delmarva at hr 66 And 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 NAMer is diggin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 So Watch up for N and W burbs. I guess. LWX is still playing opposite forecast day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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