stormtracker Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 EURO has a snowstorm Feb 1st, lock it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Euro ens are pretty supportive for "some" snow during the mon-wed timeframe. Nothing big on the members but I don't think a big whiff is likely. Mean precip is around .20 give or take. Most members drop some. There's another vort showing up thurs/fri but spread is too large to think much about. Might not be dry for days after the early week deal. That's probably all that can be said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 It's way too early to give up on the clipper with the models still forecasting such different vort tracks and evolution. Most years, clipperrs don't dig as far south as forecast. This year, they often have and have even dug a tad more. For any interested, Jasona dn my tag-team article on the clipper is linked below. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/01/22/some-snow-or-mix-possible-late-sunday-into-monday-amounts-uncertain/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 It's way too early to give up on the clipper with the models still forecasting such different vort tracks and evolution. Most years, clipperrs don't dig as far south as forecast. This year, they often have and have even dug a tad more. For any interested, Jasona dn my tag-team article on the clipper is linked below. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/01/22/some-snow-or-mix-possible-late-sunday-into-monday-amounts-uncertain/ 18Z NAM brings it south EDIT: almost there, but not far to be in the money Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 18Z NAM brings it southGlad you said it and not me so you can incur the wrath of people who think pointing out the nam is like spitting on the pope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Glad you said it and not me so you can incur the wrath of people who think pointing out the nam is like spitting on the pope. I've been saying for days that the pattern puts it to our south, basically what Wes said above . If anything, it will be shredded some by Monday, but it will be to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 Nam is of course the nam, but nice, and could be nicer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I've been saying for days that the pattern puts it to our south, basically what Wes said above . If anything, it will be shredded some by Monday, but it will be to our south. I haven't given up on Monday yet at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I've been saying for days that the pattern puts it to our south, basically what Wes said above . If anything, it will be shredded some by Monday, but it will be to our south. I don't think anyone has given up. Today's trends went a little north. That's the only observation but plenty of time. The one thing that gives me some pause is there really aren't any prolific precip producers on the GEFS and Euro ind members. That doesn't mean it can't happen of course. Just that what the ensembles are seeing aren't supportive of a larger event for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 12z UKMET looks like .2-.4" of precip (snow) with sfc temps mid-upper 30s. Plenty of time for this to trend colder. I remember with yesterday's clipper on Sunday (?) the models were showing the sfc to be upper-30s low 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 12z UKMET looks like .2-.4" of precip (snow) with sfc temps mid-upper 30s. Plenty of time for this to trend colder. I remember with yesterday's clipper on Sunday (?) the models were showing the sfc to be upper-30s low 40s. The big difference with the clipper is the vort pass was always south and there wasn't a fairly strong closed slp to the west.This go around we have to get the low to track south of us. If it doesn't it will draw plenty of warmer air from the SW into the region. We have no chance at tending colder at the surface on sw winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Glad you said it and not me so you can incur the wrath of people who think pointing out the nam is like spitting on the pope. Hey, screw those people. I'm right there with you. There is absolutely nothing wrong with discussing the NAM. Basing emotions and forecasts solely on the NAM post 48 and when it is on its own is the problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Hey, screw those people. I'm right there with you. There is absolutely nothing wrong with discussing the NAM. Basing emotions and forecasts solely on the NAM post 48 and when it is on its own is the problem. Just a few more weeks till the snow weenies leave. Thank JEBUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I don't think anyone has given up. Today's trends went a little north. That's the only observation but plenty of time. The one thing that gives me some pause is there really aren't any prolific precip producers on the GEFS and Euro ind members. That doesn't mean it can't happen of course. Just that what the ensembles are seeing aren't supportive of a larger event for now. But with the jet streak to our south, the low probably reform over VA to our south. Way too early to say much about the system. The other thing that can happen if we get the low to our south with strong height falls and lifting is end up cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Just a few more weeks till the snow weenies leave. Thank JEBUS. Yep, not long! Fishing season beckons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Hey, screw those people. I'm right there with you. There is absolutely nothing wrong with discussing the NAM. Basing emotions and forecasts solely on the NAM post 48 and when it is on its own is the problem.I love this forum it's a great weather community but there are a few people that need to chill out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Yep, not long! Fishing season beckons. This is fishing season. We've been trollign the winter waters for 2 months hoping to hook that Bluefin Tuna! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Just a few more weeks till the snow weenies leave. Thank JEBUS.Oh I see how it is then. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Yep, not long! Fishing season beckons. I can't wait till the first stretch of multiple days I can go outside without a jacket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I love this forum it's a great weather community but there are a few people that need to chill out. These things probably need names.. I could potentially be counted. My issue with the NAM stuff at range is I 100% believe it's an absolute waste of time to read. And the facts mostly agree. It's one thing to be inclusive and friendly etc.. but Yoda doing PBP of the NAM at 60-84 is perhaps the most useless thing on Earth at present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Oh I see how it is then. Lol You're cool.. at least you're knowledgeable. Rare to find someone who is only here for winter that's a good poster though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Vort on the 18z GFS is in a much better spot at 63 h. Let's get a trend the right way meow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I can't wait till the first stretch of multiple days I can go outside without a jacket.Almost golf season for me. Cool mornings warm afternoons and the grass hasn't turned brown from summer heat yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Won't be long I'll be breaking out the trotline. Should be some nice crabs in the spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 You're cool.. at least you're knowledgeable. Rare to find someone who is only here for winter that's a good poster though.Thanks I was just kidding. I read a lot all year, especially during a severe outbreak or hurricane , but I stay silent because I don't have much to add. I have no skill at seasonal forecasting, severe or tropical stuff. Others are far better then me so I just listen and learn. Still enjoy the discussions though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 GFS went back to what it showed at 0z last night. At least it improved from 12z. I'm putting all my eggs in Mitch's south trend basket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I'm with Wes on not worrying too much. I kinda wish we could just get the vort ball without all the other attachments which still seem to be messing with the evolution. But we're a clipper town and all the runs are still into us or below us. Now we just wait for the Feb 9-10 2010 redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 These things probably need names.. I could potentially be counted. My issue with the NAM stuff at range is I 100% believe it's an absolute waste of time to read. And the facts mostly agree. It's one thing to be inclusive and friendly etc.. but Yoda doing PBP of the NAM at 60-84 is perhaps the most useless thing on Earth at present.I am ok with it because why not. It's just a few posts to scroll threw. I see your point though and respect it. I wasn't thinking of you. You articulate your reasons for your point and you are always respectful. You're one of the best on here. I'm talking about a few who unleash derogatory insults and personal attacks when someone makes an off topic comment or a statement they don't like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 You're cool.. at least you're knowledgeable. Rare to find someone who is only here for winter that's a good poster though. Really? Tracker and I are offended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 18 z gfs was a step towards what we need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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