Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Can you tell how much precip the Euro gives us before the coastal? 1-3" in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 the GFS run that had NO precip just a 1000 mb somewhre off the coast? that GFS ? It was a couple nights ago where it showed much earlier development off the coast getting MD in to the deform band. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015012300&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=090 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Here are some revised estimates based on the changes in modelling to the northeast of this forum ... DCA 4.0 .. IAD 6.5 .. BWI 9.0 .. PHL 13.0 ... MDT 5.0 .. ACY 6.0 .. SBY 10,0 ... RIC 2.2 ... ORF 3.5 and I'm thinking EWR 18, NYC 16, ISP 22, BDL 15, BDR 12, PVD 15, ORH 30, BOS 22 Not much change to my forecast for the storm anywhere west of Chesapeake Bay and I don't think there would be a reason to reduce any previous amounts, just more piles in from the northeast into the eastern half of the region and as DT states there may be even better prospects now for se VA although I think with the second system keeping a frontal boundary rather tight to the west, it prevents this particular coastal storm from just leapfrogging DCA and re-developing. Snow mostly moderate west of BWI but could be heavy at times PHL to BWI and while not as heavy in Delmarva could be more wind-blown with resultant lower visibility issues and drifting in open areas. Certainly never thought that my original 4-8 would seem a bit puny at any point but hey, if it busts low then we're all due for a pretty good laugh about that I would imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Ya this is going to be painful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 This isnt about DC vs IAD. Bigger picture chief. DC gets screwed in alot of set ups. Storms do occur that deliver more snow east of both those locations. Maybe you slept through those. it is about DC vs IAD. more east vs west does happen, but not that often. not really interested in MD either, except for BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Euro shows a nearly identical storm on 2/1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 WPC has given a model diagnostic discussion on the ECMWF:So at the end of the discussion, they say they prefer a compromise of the 12z GFS/EURO that is close to the UKMET/Canadian but at the top of the discussion they prefer the UKMET/Canadian compromise. Am I reading that correctly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 If this becomes a Miller B monster that shafts DC and west (relatively speaking), then I may have to stay away for the day. Best for everyone involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 anyone still have access to the text output on accuwx? Yes. What do you need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Yes. What do you need. Westminster qpf. Just to settle the qpf discrepancy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 24, 2015 Author Share Posted January 24, 2015 Credit to Typhoon Tip in the NE forum :"Quick notes of caution... This system has evolved in the models to be a very large, and powerfully dynamic system. So much so that it will have "it's own" internal idiosyncrasies that will inevitably emerge, and be poorly modeled when they do. Such nuances can and do have an impact on sensible as well as more meaningful strike events...Having said that, the Euro actually is processing details that may not even exist ... or, perhaps they will; but the point being, with immense systems of certain power comes along equally daunting complexities, and the Euro's creating a wave out over the Gulf Stream may have a couple considerations....One, it may rob some moisture from wrapping W into the CCB band. It may also cut off some of the WCB ingest into the core deep layer mechanics. The 2ndary result of that (if in deed it is an error) is that the system may actually not be currently modeled deep or prolific enough in that particular guidance source...That said, there is soooo much incredible dynamics with this thing, satellite vortices (to borrow an expression from our Plains brethren) almost seem necessary. I could almost even envision a wave forming over the Bahamas after the cold front clears Florida." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Unlikely. The strength and slp track of the clipper is pretty good. Accum snow before any transfer/bombing is pretty likely and supported by all guidance. IMO- the only way we get a meaningful hit from redevelopment is the trough going neutral then negative before it clears the coast. Even though h5 is closed off at our latitude, getting precip back further west will be tough unless we get the tilt going early. Which is probably not very likely. Exactly, and the models have differed on the trough's tilt from run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Westminster qpf. Just to settle the qpf discrepancy. Give me a couple minutes and I'll give you the breakdown of the entire event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 24, 2015 Author Share Posted January 24, 2015 I am really interested in the euro ensembles. Since many up and down 95 want to see what the ecens does with the coastal, we are kinda backing into ensemble range, t+60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Exactly, and the models have differed on the trough's tilt from run to run. I have that sinking feeling.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 it is about DC vs IAD. more east vs west does happen, but not that often. not really interested in MD either, except for BWI Ok, for you. Your world is small. Your reply to DT's post made little sense in the context of how this storm may evolve regionally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 nobody who has lived here a while is jumping for joy with the type of evolution the euro is showing. Exactly. I'm nervous as hell...even more so than I was earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 In my fantasies, the last three suites become a trend that keeps pulling the system south, until SNE ends up with 2-3 inches and we get slammed by a system that redevelops off OBX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 24, 2015 Author Share Posted January 24, 2015 SREF rolls in with around .35 it would look like on SV maps. .55ish around PHL. NYC over 1", BOS near 2.5 Westward lean significantly with a mean around the canadians low locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Ya this is going to be painful at least it's not Christmas....come to NY with me...I have a king bed at the Hampton Inn in Queens waiting for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Exactly. I'm nervous as hell...even more so than I was earlier. That's only because your hope have risen some. The Euro solution is one that fails more than it works out but.....occasionally we do OK with miller bs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 SREF is pretty ugly imo....not awful though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I have that sinking feeling.... Isn't worst case for you guys is like 3-4" if the coastal completely misses? Trend is to deepen this further south and west, still time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I have that sinking feeling....Understandable but look on the bright side, we still have our original clipper with maybe 2-3". And if you have a sinking feeling now, its only because you dare to dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Credit to Typhoon Tip in the NE forum : " Quick notes of caution... This system has evolved in the models to be a very large, and powerfully dynamic system. So much so that it will have "it's own" internal idiosyncrasies that will inevitably emerge, and be poorly modeled when they do. Such nuances can and do have an impact on sensible as well as more meaningful strike events... Having said that, the Euro actually is processing details that may not even exist ... or, perhaps they will; but the point being, with immense systems of certain power comes along equally daunting complexities, and the Euro's creating a wave out over the Gulf Stream may have a couple considerations.... One, it may rob some moisture from wrapping W into the CCB band. It may also cut off some of the WCB ingest into the core deep layer mechanics. The 2ndary result of that (if in deed it is an error) is that the system may actually not be currently modeled deep or prolific enough in that particular guidance source... That said, there is soooo much incredible dynamics with this thing, satellite vortices (to borrow an expression from our Plains brethren) almost seem necessary. I could almost even envision a wave forming over the Bahamas after the cold front clears Florida." I love reading Typhoon Tip's write ups. He's a very knowledgeable Met on American and is not afraid to benunk anything he sees. I know he's excited because he's located in NE, but hearing him mention how complex this setup is for a system of this magnitude and to heed caution is a big statement. This has such huge boom/bust potential that if you get too worked up, you could end up being majorly disappointed. I'm leaning 2-4", 3-6" for Baltimore on north for now. I need more than one Euro run to change my mind. 0z runs should be fun tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Afternoon AFD from LWX will probably be late so that they can peak at the 18z NAM... not putting LWX down or anything, just saying what i thnk wlll hapen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Ok, for you. Your world is small. Your reply to DT's post made little sense in the context of how this storm may evolve regionally. his reasoning rarely makes sense. norfolk would likely be a mix and rain, more so than snow. that's just the way it goes down there most of the time. annapolis sometimes gets more snow than areas further west, but not that often. you are in a bit of a tough spot, but if you want a lot of snow i hope it works out for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 My 2pm update for DC proper https://www.facebook.com/HeadfulOfSnow There are a three different scenarios on the table. Keep in mind, my confidence level for all 3 is medium at best. Scenario 1 - We get light snow starting late Sunday evening or overnight, and ending Monday evening. 1-3" Scenario 2 - We get 1-2" in part 1 (see above). But then we get a "2nd round" from the deepening coastal storm starting Monday evening and lasting into Tuesday morning. This scenario would give us 4"+ total. We have failed many times at getting wraparound from a coastal, so we need to be bearish on this. Scenario 3 - We get no help from the coastal and the front end is too dry - 1" Right now I lean toward a blend of 1 and 2, but leaning toward 1. So if you forced me to make a forecast for DC right now, I would say 2-3". Sounds reasonable to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Isn't worst case for you guys is like 3-4" if the coastal completely misses? Trend is to deepen this further south and west, still time.It's starting to get too complicated. I've been down this road too many times to count. Bombing miller b's have a habit of reducing our "easy" snow on the front and give us nothing on the back. Under 3" region wide is very much a possibility. I just wanted a simple 3-6. There is time for things to get right but I'm not feelin it like I was the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Afternoon AFD from LWX will probably be late so that they can peak at the 18z NAM... not putting LWX down or anything, just saying what i thnk wlll hapen I just hope they don't blow this for us and issue watches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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