HighStakes Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The thing I hate is that we are literally on razor's edge. Every little tick counts with us now, bad or good. Really need the deform band with good qpf. to reach as far west as Washington/Frederick county line to feel safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 BINGO ANNAPOLIS and Norfolk could see a lot more snow than DC RIC Very sharp edge on wxbell maps. I don't see .7 @ dca? europrecip1.JPG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 24, 2015 Author Share Posted January 24, 2015 If you look at this progression, you'd think wow this is classic. Don't be fooled though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 the GFS run that had NO precip just a 1000 mb somewhre off the coast?that GFS ? Definitely great steps toward what the GFS was showing a couple of nights ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 BINGO ANNAPOLIS and Norfolk could see a lot more snow than DC RIC we know...we've all been through this scenario a bunch of times...It is new to nobody here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 the GFS run that had NO precip just a 1000 mb somewhre off the coast? that GFS ? No, the one that had 6-12" in the area a few nights ago. I think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 KARMA is a pain in the ass but funny Yeah. But that's what happens when you're all about hecs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 CLASSIC MILLER B Anlogs are FEB 8-10 1969.... FEB 5-7 1978 DEC 302000 all 3 events were screw jobs for most of MD and VA The gradient across the area was huge for the 78 event, Greenbelt got around 6 inches, BWI got more than that and so did Annapolis. I think one of those two had double digits if I remember correctly. DCA ended up with a whopping inch. The euro scenario is still a low probability one but is not an impossible solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 KARMA is a pain in the ass but funny Suppose that's why you're not gonna get much snow either.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Ensembles should be very interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Reminds me of the Feb 10 2010 with the tight gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Ensembles should be very interesting I hope they're west of the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 we know...we've all been through this scenario a bunch of times...It is new to nobody here Right and there is nothing to say this can't trend a little better...we have a low developing south of us and cold 850s and 2m with an improved Euro run...at three three pretty solid ingredients going into happy hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 the GFS run that had NO precip just a 1000 mb somewhre off the coast? that GFS ? The Euro is sometimes too far west with these types of setups. Canadian is a good compromise between the two, although I am hoping for a solution west of the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Damn. Euro is like .85 for mby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 we know...we've all been through this scenario a bunch of times...It is new to nobody here nobody who has lived here a while is jumping for joy with the type of evolution the euro is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 nobody who has lived here a while is jumping for joy with the type of evolution the euro is showing. He knows what he's doing....sad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 So, is this run as good as it gets for the area? Or could we possibly see earlier development/further west track that makes us all happy? I'll take 2-4, but with a storm like this I might as well get greedy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 It was a better run but that back edge is still way to close for me. The big bomb idea also means someone gets screwed with the transfer. I know everyone assumes the west trend continues abs it could but it could just as easily jump east next run too. I like the ggem idea of the primary staying strong and just bowling through and a slower developing coastal. Less high end potential but less bust also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 BINGO ANNAPOLIS and Norfolk could see a lot more snow than DC RIC not gonna happen chief. very unlikely DC gets more snow than IAD....just saying from 38 winters in the area, doesn't work that way most of teh time. i don't really care about RIC, whole nother world down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Does the NWS around here ever have an easy forecast to make?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 It was a better run but that back edge is still way to close for me. The big bomb idea also means someone gets screwed with the transfer. I know everyone assumes the west trend continues abs it could but it could just as easily jump east next run too. I like the ggem idea of the primary staying strong and just bowling through and a slower developing coastal. Less high end potential but less bust also.If the model had you at 1.5" of liquid you'd stil be worried about the edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 not gonna happen chief. very unlikely DC gets more snow than IAD....just saying from 38 winters in the area, doesn't work that way most of teh time. i don't really care about RIC, whole nother world down there. This isnt about DC vs IAD. Bigger picture chief. DC gets screwed in alot of set ups. Storms do occur that deliver more snow east of both those locations. Maybe you slept through those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Damn. Euro is like .85 for mby. No GEFS member hits the Delmarva and N MD with as much as the precip Euro. We are likely in the screw zone with 3-6, not a 12/25/10 screw zone but still not happy about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 It was a better run but that back edge is still way to close for me. The big bomb idea also means someone gets screwed with the transfer. I know everyone assumes the west trend continues abs it could but it could just as easily jump east next run too. I like the ggem idea of the primary staying strong and just bowling through and a slower developing coastal. Less high end potential but less bust also. Agreed. Most of us will probably end up much less disappointed with the GGEM scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On the razor's edge for sure and that usually doesn't bode well here. The only good think about that is it helps temper expectations. Could we get a complete shutout if this ramps like the Euro depicted? Unlikely. The strength and slp track of the clipper is pretty good. Accum snow before any transfer/bombing is pretty likely and supported by all guidance. IMO- the only way we get a meaningful hit from redevelopment is the trough going neutral then negative before it clears the coast. Even though h5 is closed off at our latitude, getting precip back further west will be tough unless we get the tilt going early. Which is probably not very likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 those precip contours reminds me of Jan. 2000 They also remind me of a run or 2 of the Boxing Day storm 2010 before things eventually pulled east. Hoping this time for a reverse and a westward trend over the next 12-24 hours. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Unlikely. The strength and slp track of the clipper is pretty good. Accum snow before any transfer/bombing is pretty likely and supported by all guidance. IMO- the only way we get a meaningful hit from redevelopment is the trough going neutral then negative before it clears the coast. Even though h5 is closed off at our latitude, getting precip back further west will be tough unless we get the tilt going early. Which is probably not very likely. Can you tell how much precip the Euro gives us before the coastal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 My 2pm update for DC proper https://www.facebook.com/HeadfulOfSnow There are a three different scenarios on the table. Keep in mind, my confidence level for all 3 is medium at best.Scenario 1 - We get light snow starting late Sunday evening or overnight, and ending Monday evening. 1-3"Scenario 2 - We get 1-2" in part 1 (see above). But then we get a "2nd round" from the deepening coastal storm starting Monday evening and lasting into Tuesday morning. This scenario would give us 4"+ total. We have failed many times at getting wraparound from a coastal, so we need to be bearish on this.Scenario 3 - We get no help from the coastal and the front end is too dry - 1"Right now I lean toward a blend of 1 and 2, but leaning toward 1. So if you forced me to make a forecast for DC right now, I would say 2-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 WPC has given a model diagnostic discussion on the ECMWF: CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM EVOLVING INTO A NOR'EASTER MON/TUE~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~PREFERENCE: UKMET/CANADIAN COMPROMISECONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGETHERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH SOME OF IT INTRODUCEDBY AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE STREAKING NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND SOMEINTRODUCED BY ITS BURGEONING SIZE OF THE OVERALL SYSTEM AS ITAPPROACHES THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND. THE 12Z GFS IS THESTRONGEST/MOST CONSOLIDATED ALOFT. THE 12Z ECMWF USES WHATAPPEARS TO BE A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK BULL'S EYE AT 60-66HOURS/MONDAY NIGHT TO DRAG ITS SURFACE LOW DUE NORTH ONCE ITEMERGES OFF CAPE HATTERAS, WHICH LOOKS UNREALISTIC. WITH AT LEASTTWO NOTABLE SHORTWAVES MERGING TO CREATE THIS LARGE SYSTEM, ITCOULD TAKE A WHILE TO CONSOLIDATE ALOFT, IMPLYING THE GFS ISPROBABLY TOO DEEP ALOFT. THE TREND IN THE ECMWF IS TOWARDS A MORESOUTHERLY SYSTEM, WHILE THE ECMWF/GFS/UKMET HAVE TRENDED STRONGERALOFT OVER THEIR PAST DAY OR SO OF RUNS, WHICH HAS FORCED AWESTWARD TREND AT THE SURFACE. WITH THE STRENGTHENING TRENDALOFT/WESTERLY SURFACE CYCLONE TRACK TREND, THE 00Z GLOBALENSEMBLE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HAVE LITTLE UTILITY TODAY. ACOMPROMISE OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF, CLOSE TO THE 12Z UKMET/12ZCANADIAN, IS PREFERRED WITH BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE DUE TO THELARGE DAY-T0-DAY CHANGES SEEN IN THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.