nw baltimore wx Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I like the NAM better for my back yard. You do pretty well in many of these redevelopment types. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 GFS doesn't look that bad, still has 4-5" inches of snow maybe after the precipitation ends? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Trends aren't good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The Day 8 analogs included 1/22/05, 2/4/95, and 1/21/61--- all storms where we got some snow but somewhere northeast of us did much much better. I am trying not to get distracted by northeast of us and just hoping there's enough consolidated energy in the beginning for a 3 or 4" snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Gfs really doesn't seem any better than the nam for mby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Total precip. on the GFS through 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 24, 2015 Author Share Posted January 24, 2015 Gfs really doesn't seem any better than the nam for mby.You must just be looking at the qpf map then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Trends aren't goodI dunno. I'd probably still favor the GFS around here even if SNE ends up getting blasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 gymengineer's analogs make me feel a lot better 1/22 was a disappointment with the dryslot but wasn't that terrible overall. The others were a sweet deal for the Baltimore area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I agree. Don't care at all what happens in SNE if I can get a decent long duration type deal. With the qpf depiction, is that enough for low end warning snow? It might seem weenie since I like snow and maybe it is but I'd probably go with GFS thru the time the coastal starts to rip and then switch to Euro type solution. I guess the front runner strong vort on the GFS could disappear but it looked almost identical to 0z thru our money period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Are the models really that much drier/ showing a shorter duration event than they were yesterday? Its seems the major change is that NE is looking more likely to get a coastal. But since that was never really on the table for this area anyway, its hard to get disappointed. I'll easily take a 2-4 or 3-5 inch long duration event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 gymengineer's analogs make me feel a lot better 1/22 was a disappointment with the dryslot but wasn't that terrible overall. The others were a sweet deal for the Baltimore area Those were from a few days ago based on 500-mb matches. Don't take them verbatim. All they indicated was an elevated chance of moderate snow for our region this coming Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Just for fun, know that these maps don't matter all that much, but I don't get the NAM hate that happened earlier. GFS: NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I like the NAM better for my back yard.Most of the nam qpf for us is from an inverted trough. That's like winning the lottery. Great if it happens but foolish to plan on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Are the models really that much drier/ showing a shorter duration event than they were yesterday? Its seems the major change is that NE is looking more likely to get a coastal. But since that was never really on the table for this area anyway, its hard to get disappointed. I'll easily take a 2-4 or 3-5 inch long duration event. It's the verbatim Euro solution from the 0Z run for our region that is freaking out everyone. Even the NAM isn't that different to the GFS for what happens in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I don't get the whining about NE always doing better than us. They're supposed to. It's NE, they are farther north, CLIMO, all that shi#. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 It's the verbatim Euro solution from the 0Z run for our region that is freaking out everyone. Even the NAM isn't that different to the GFS for what happens in our area.Except for the way it happens on the NAM as psuhoffman eloquently put it. But the nam fails consistently at 12 hours so.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Most of the nam qpf for us is from an inverted trough. That's like winning the lottery. Great if it happens but foolish to plan on it. Agree 100%. Gfs is a standard light to mod snow event with no complications. NAM solution is ripe to disappoint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Current early stage of this system in SK on radar (MT and ND are in the lower portions of this map) http://weather.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=XBE It is raining and 36 F at Weyburn SK which is quite unusual for January. The developing low has taken in some abundant Pacific moisture (my location saw 3 inches of rain yesterday) and so the low is off to a good start in terms of available moisture. As the weak bubble of arctic high drops further southeast over the weekend and interacts with the bombing out east coast low and the snow cover left by that storm in n NJ and se NY, I believe it will work in your favor by feeding in somewhat colder air than might be anticipated otherwise as the Midwest low approaches. I like the RGEM depiction and figure that the low will gradually redevelop in a southeastward push overnight Sun-Mon which will allow the filtering cold air to keep drifting further south towards RIC and this may make some of the sleet or rain depictions on various models erroneous by Monday morning as all snow develops almost right to the ORF coastal region. However, the heavier snow will be north of a secondary arctic frontal boundary which will stall just south of DCA to north of Ocean City. This will become the focus for moderate snow and accumulations of 4-8 inches seem quite possible, 6-10 if the system keeps feeding Atlantic moisture back for a prolonged period during its rapid development phase late Monday. To recap for snowfall predictions, would say 2-4" central VA, 4-6" DC metro and central MD into s/c DE, 6-8" northern and western higher suburban areas over to BWI and extending into southern tier of counties in PA, but mixing reduction into s NJ so back to 3-5" there. Local 8-12 on higher terrain in e WV and n VA, w MD. I expect this might be on the higher side of most guidance or forecasts but remain optimistic, the earlier clipper had less moisture and a much shallower structure, and this one already has plenty of moisture along for the ride. What it loses to orographic lift it will more than regain from Atlantic inflow. The key I think is that a cold surface flow is well supported by height and thickness trends as well as that snow cover laid down to your northeast overnight. (N NJ 5-9 inches). There is also the very good time of day factor that the storm is slumping and repositioning its frontal boundaries during the late overnight hours. The max on Sunday whether 45, 50 or whatever won't be a factor given the number of hours of CAA available. (DCA 3.7 .. IAD 5.5 .. RIC 2.2 .. CHO 3.0 .. SBY 4.0 .. BWI 6.8 .. PHL 4.0 .. MDT 5.5 .. ACY 2.2) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Except for the way it happens on the NAM as psuhoffman eloquently put it. But the nam fails consistently at 12 hours so.. I get the part after 0Z Tuesday... but does the inverted trough feature start before then? The first burst through Monday afternoon is not that far off QPF from the GFS solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Current early stage of this system in SK on radar (MT and ND are in the lower portions of this map) http://weather.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=XBE It is raining and 36 F at Weyburn SK which is quite unusual for January. The developing low has taken in some abundant Pacific moisture (my location saw 3 inches of rain yesterday) and so the low is off to a good start in terms of available moisture. As the weak bubble of arctic high drops further southeast over the weekend and interacts with the bombing out east coast low and the snow cover left by that storm in n NJ and se NY, I believe it will work in your favor by feeding in somewhat colder air than might be anticipated otherwise as the Midwest low approaches. I like the RGEM depiction and figure that the low will gradually redevelop in a southeastward push overnight Sun-Mon which will allow the filtering cold air to keep drifting further south towards RIC and this may make some of the sleet or rain depictions on various models erroneous by Monday morning as all snow develops almost right to the ORF coastal region. However, the heavier snow will be north of a secondary arctic frontal boundary which will stall just south of DCA to north of Ocean City. This will become the focus for moderate snow and accumulations of 4-8 inches seem quite possible, 6-10 if the system keeps feeding Atlantic moisture back for a prolonged period during its rapid development phase late Monday. To recap for snowfall predictions, would say 2-4" central VA, 4-6" DC metro and central MD into s/c DE, 6-8" northern and western higher suburban areas over to BWI and extending into southern tier of counties in PA, but mixing reduction into s NJ so back to 3-5" there. Local 8-12 on higher terrain in e WV and n VA, w MD. I expect this might be on the higher side of most guidance or forecasts but remain optimistic, the earlier clipper had less moisture and a much shallower structure, and this one already has plenty of moisture along for the ride. What it loses to orographic lift it will more than regain from Atlantic inflow. The key I think is that a cold surface flow is well supported by height and thickness trends as well as that snow cover laid down to your northeast overnight. (N NJ 5-9 inches). There is also the very good time of day factor that the storm is slumping and repositioning its frontal boundaries during the late overnight hours. The max on Sunday whether 45, 50 or whatever won't be a factor given the number of hours of CAA available. (DCA 3.7 .. IAD 5.5 .. RIC 2.2 .. CHO 3.0 .. SBY 4.0 .. BWI 6.8 .. PHL 4.0 .. MDT 5.5 .. ACY 2.2) I am going to hug this forecast. You nailed the clipper we had on 1/6. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Current early stage of this system in SK on radar (MT and ND are in the lower portions of this map) http://weather.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=XBE Thank you for keeping my weenie hopes alive until the 00z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Those were from a few days ago based on 500-mb matches. Don't take them verbatim. All they indicated was an elevated chance of moderate snow for our region this coming Monday. I'll take it... especially if it will stay around the whole week. My bar is 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I'll take it... especially if it will stay around the whole week. My bar is 4" My bar is 2.3". Only because my largest snowfall this season is 2.25" lol. Also, great post Roger. I hope you're right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 We're gonna opt for a middle of the road forecast for now but I worry more about a banding boomlet bust for the CWG ideas than a whiff. I think the latter is unlikely. The GFS 500 intrigues me, it's really close to being a good solution even fro us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I don't know about you and everyone else, but I'm kind of getting an adrenaline jolt tracking this. Just hope it doesn't all end with getting shafted (which I don't think is likely at the moment). I'm not sure what the bar should be. My bar is this one has ro beat 1/6 or I'll be disappointed. I got 3.8 with that one. Also, wsw criteria needs to be met somewhere in the close in burbs of either city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Total precip. on the GFS through 84. This looks fine to me for an area wide moderate snowstorm. Why the whining. We weren't expecting smowmaggeden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 All I want is 3.6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 We're gonna opt for a middle of the road forecast for now but I worry more about a banding boomlet bust for the CWG ideas than a whiff. I think the latter is unlikely. The GFS 500 intrigues me, it's really close to being a good solution even fro us. Wes, do you think we have a shot at a closeoff and neutral/neg tilt as it passes underneath? The idea was there but too little too late. I'm still greedy. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 GGEM is a good solution, though warm-ish.....Really clocks the western burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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