DDweatherman Posted January 24, 2015 Author Share Posted January 24, 2015 Exactly. People have been here long enough to know how it goes from here without having to sit through the entire movie. With that in mind, we should all be asking for refunds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 What happened to "It's just the NAM?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Exactly. People have been here long enough to know how it goes from here without having to sit through the entire movie. Might as well break out the sour mash and start bookmarking NE webcams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Obviously this doesn't look as good as it did yesterday morning, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the GFS hold and then the other models start to show similar solutions tomorrow. I'd rather have the GFS show a decent outcome than the EURO in this situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 What happened to "It's just the NAM?" Again.. The NAM by itself and especially past 48 hours is mostly conversational, good for trends. The NAM SUPPORTED by other good models or supporting other good models is another story. Look, nobody is saying bail now...it's still a little early..but given the trends, it just doesn't look good. I hope I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Might as well break out the sour mash and start bookmarking NE webcams If the NAM is supported by the GFS/Euro with that unholy looking storm, I might even ride up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Exactly. People have been here long enough to know how it goes from here without having to sit through the entire movie. I dunno if it's that clear cut yet... the trough evolution has been different on a lot of runs even if we ended up snow with many. I should probably wait to press post till I see the GFS in a few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I dunno if it's that clear cut yet... the trough evolution has been different on a lot of runs even if we ended up snow with many. I should probably wait to press post till I see the GFS in a few minutes. It's not set it stone...the trend is troubling. We both know it usually doesn't just stop once it keeps going. I'd wait for the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Again.. The NAM by itself and especially past 48 hours is mostly conversational, good for trends. The NAM SUPPORTED by other good models or supporting other good models is another story. Look, nobody is saying bail now...it's still a little early..but given the trends, it just doesn't look good. I hope I'm wrong. When the better models dig this thing way, way south, transfer to the coast, then go negative and eventually cut off over New England, then I'll worry. Until then, I'm going to assume the NAM is overs long this thing. I'll be pissed if I'm being overly optimistic though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Especially since the GFS has handled clippers better than the Euro in just about every clipper scenario this month. I think it's also important to note that with each clipper we had a set of runs at close range which caused collective panic initially, only to be proven model noise (or nonsense). No, the trend hasn't been good, but I'd probably wait a bit longer to start jumping. GFS needs to hold imo. Is this still a clipper though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tstate21 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I know we are talking about the NAM here, but what is going to stop this vort from closing off earlier and closer to the coast? The last few runs of not only the NAM, but other models such as the EURO have been slowing the storm down as it treks across the country; thus, showing a phase closer to the coast. I don't think it is out of the spectrum of possibilities for this thing to close off sooner than currently anticipated and give us a hit as well. Just my two cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Is this still a clipper though? I'm not sure that last Wednesday was a clipper either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 When the better models dig this thing way, way south, transfer to the coast, then go negative and eventually cut off over New England, then I'll worry. Until then, I'm going to assume the NAM is overs long this thing. I'll be pissed if I'm being overly optimistic though. THE NAM trended toward the Euro tho...that's what I'm saying. If it was just the NAM, I'd roll my eyes and move on. The Euro was the only one doing this until now. Euro screwed us good last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 GFS looks more like 0z GFS than Euro thru 39. It doesn't hang back the main vort as much not quite as diggy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJField Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 12z RGEM is our new friend.http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2015012412&fh=30&xpos=0&ypos=313 Is that a big dryslot that is forming there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 GFS looks like it's looked mostly.. It definitely doesn't dig and hang back as much as the Euro. Almost identical to 0z thru 60. GO AMERICA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 GFS looks like it's looked mostly.. It definitely doesn't dig and hang back as much as the Euro. Almost identical to 0z thru 60. GO AMERICA! It definitely has stopped the bleeding caused by the Euro/NAM I cant help but wonder what could be if the other clipper weren't perhaps acting as a kicker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 24, 2015 Author Share Posted January 24, 2015 GFS looks like it's looked mostly.. It definitely doesn't dig and hang back as much as the Euro. Almost identical to 0z thru 60. GO AMERICA!NE forum likes it so far hizenberg as the leader l Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 It definitely has stopped the bleeding caused by the Euro/NAM I cant help but wonder what could be if the other clipper weren't perhaps acting as a kicker Still not clean but it wasn't prior. The GFS keys in more on the first vort in the trough initially.. eventually it may look like the Euro but not till after we score at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Still not clean but it wasn't prior. The GFS keys in more on the first vort in the trough initially.. eventually it may look like the Euro but not till after we score at least. Good run, still keeps that 0.3+ band in DC metro. Would be a nice long duration 3-5 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Just now reviewing the suites from this morning, and other than peoples greed and disdain for NE, not sure what the crying is about. If your bar was set properly from the beginning you'll be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 NE forum likes it so far hizenberg as the leader l It's moving toward the Euro up there.. basically the same by late Monday. The Euro has no strong vort in the lead of the trough like the GFS does and hangs back longer initially partly because of that I would assume. NE is probably going to get dumped on... let's just hope the GFS is right with the pre part I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Lots of uncertainty still with this one guys. Gonna be a long day of model watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Was out last night and thankfully missed the euro nam. The gfs/euro debate should be about different streams in general and not clipper specific. Old gfs consistently did better with northern stream systems. New gfs appears to as well so far but we can't know for sure because we have limited experience with it. This storm is a great test because the models are quite different at short leads. 12z looked good to me. I'll hug it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I like the NAM better for my back yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 It's moving toward the Euro up there.. basically the same by late Monday. The Euro has no strong vort in the lead of the trough like the GFS does and hangs back longer initially partly because of that I would assume. NE is probably going to get dumped on... let's just hope the GFS is right with the pre part I suppose. Yeah this is reasonable. It's definitely bombs away Long Island to New England but doesn't screw us as bad with the transfer. GFS has done well with these in the past so no reason to doubt it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Still light snow in the area Tuesday evening....this would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Looks like close to .5 precip through the cities so still pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I'd like the storm to sink down to SC an then redevelop down there and then bomb out. It looks like today's storm acts like a 50/50 low for Sunday night's storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 If nothing else it looks like snow TV for 24 hours or so seems a lock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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