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1/25-1/26 Snow Threat


DDweatherman

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Maybe. Comparing h5 from 0z last night was a step backwards. Doesn't make me feel good that the GFS did also.

I didn't look at 0z.. I have yet to see a run with a legit consolidated vort solution though. Even the good ones were odd. 

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I didn't look at 0z.. I have yet to see a run with a legit consolidated vort solution though. Even the good ones were odd.

Just going off the basic rule of thumb with slp track doesn't give me a lot of confidence even if it does light up. Obviously there is plenty of time for improvements. Just noting the trend from yesterday to today.

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If the 500 was a little more consolidated, its track isn't too bad but because of the messy 500, can never get a low to pop over VA like we need to score.

Very true. The strung out double low thing is usually a sign that the model is having a hard time pinpointing. We saw it a couple weeks ago when it looked like days of light snow but as time grew near it was a more consolidated/discrete event.

I'm sure a strung out light event is very possible but reality will likely look a lot different than what we see today.

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Well, this one looks bad.  Not gonna give up yet.  On to Feb 1-3.    Sigh

 

Yeah, not quite going to give it up yet, but it's now only ~4 days out.  Guess we'll have to see how it is modeled once the Fri/Sat event gets into real-time.

 

Just stunning how bad a turn the guidance has taken for us in the past couple of days or even less.

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Yeah, not quite going to give it up yet, but it's now only ~4 days out.  Guess we'll have to see how it is modeled once the Fri/Sat event gets into real-time.

 

Just stunning how bad a turn the guidance has taken for us in the past couple of days or even less.

and it's for that reason I ain't giving up on anything yet

as we've gotten closer to every event the vorts have been pushed south and/or compressed, and I think the seasonal pattern will repeat....and if I'm wrong, I remain confident in saying what we see today will not be what we see on Sunday's runs

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lets face it...were the worst snow town in the world for a reason. When we need a arctic high, we get a great lakes low. When we need a southern shift, the vort goes north. when we need the storm to trend west, it goes out to sea. When we need the storm to go east, it becomes an inland runner. When we need the upper low to close it opens...when we need something to phase, it phases to early or not at all. When we get 3 chances to score, we dont capitalize on one. When the euro usually locks in, it changes only when it can screw us. The GFS is a piece of trash model, but somehow beats the Euro when it comes to not giving us snow. 

 

the most common thing that Zwyts types is the word "next"

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lets face it...were the worst snow town in the world for a reason. When we need a arctic high, we get a great lakes low. When we need a southern shift, the vort goes north. when we need the storm to trend west, it goes out to sea. When we need the storm to go east, it becomes an inland runner. When we need the upper low to close it opens...when we need something to phase, it phases to early or not at all. When we get 3 chances to score, we dont capitalize on one. When the euro usually locks in, it changes only when it can screw us. The GFS is a piece of trash model, but somehow beats the Euro when it comes to not giving us snow. 

 

the most common thing that Zwyts types is the word "next"

Valley low.  real low.

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Valley low.  real low.

 

I admit, I LOL'ed at this.  And the comment that you responded to.

 

Ji's comment sounds like it could be made into a country western type song (not that I'm a huge fan of that music)...just need the right music to set the words to!  The old stereotype that they're all about how everything goes wrong.  Heard a joke that if you play a country western song backward, your dog lives, your truck starts up, and your wife comes back to you!

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lets face it...were the worst snow town in the world for a reason. When we need a arctic high, we get a great lakes low. When we need a southern shift, the vort goes north. when we need the storm to trend west, it goes out to sea. When we need the storm to go east, it becomes an inland runner. When we need the upper low to close it opens...when we need something to phase, it phases to early or not at all. When we get 3 chances to score, we dont capitalize on one. When the euro usually locks in, it changes only when it can screw us. The GFS is a piece of trash model, but somehow beats the Euro when it comes to not giving us snow. 

 

the most common thing that Zwyts types is the word "next"

post-1372-0-41389400-1421952770_thumb.jp

 

Please tell me more........

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lets face it...were the worst snow town in the world for a reason. When we need a arctic high, we get a great lakes low. When we need a southern shift, the vort goes north. when we need the storm to trend west, it goes out to sea. When we need the storm to go east, it becomes an inland runner. When we need the upper low to close it opens...when we need something to phase, it phases to early or not at all. When we get 3 chances to score, we dont capitalize on one. When the euro usually locks in, it changes only when it can screw us. The GFS is a piece of trash model, but somehow beats the Euro when it comes to not giving us snow.

the most common thing that Zwyts types is the word "next"

You were too quick to uncancel winter on your Facebook page. Think of your followers next time.

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