usedtobe Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 USA_VRTHGTGRD_500mb_048.gif Looked good at 48 but closed off too early and then sheared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 It's not that bad. Vort is way south overall but still way more precip than euro for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 It's not that bad. Vort is way south overall but still way more precip than euro for me. exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 NAM is barely a model though. Wait for the GFS-king of the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Still probably good for a light snow during the day monday, see if we can salvage a 1-2 type event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 exactly maybe first run where bulk comes during the day monday but it's time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 As long as SNE still gets a good snowstorm, that's all we should care about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 NAM is barely a model though. Wait for the GFS-king of the clipper. Keeps sliding right in time. Still 48hrs out. GFS has been lethal on these last 2 clippers within 24-36hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 It's not that bad. Vort is way south overall but still way more precip than euro for me. The problem is that it has come around to the general idea of the Euro. And NAM precip, well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Still looks like it gets DC proper over 0.2 by Monday night. Not terrible, still would be a decent event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Just don't compare the 24 hr precip maps from 6z with this run and it'll seem ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The problem is that it has come around to the general idea of the Euro. And NAM precip, well... Other than a few runs the vort/trough pass was not the best IMO.. I harped on that for a while before the good runs. We've sorta gone back that way and then some maybe on those models. They're similar.. not quite the same. It always frustrates me a bit that meteorology has become Euro Euro Euro Euro but I guess there's a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Other than a few runs the vort/trough pass was not the best IMO.. I harped on that for a while before the good runs. We've sorta gone back that way and then some maybe on those models. They're similar.. not quite the same. It always frustrates me a bit that meteorology has become Euro Euro Euro Euro but I guess there's a reason. The whole character of the storm has changed on the runs. We were in a good spot, though tenuous, when this was a simple vort passage/clipper system. Now we are staring at a digging redeveloper, and that bodes poorly for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I feel like GFS might join the legion of Europe. We can still salvage a token WWA IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The coastal redevelopment does keep things interesting from DC north and east through Tuesday AM though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Not sure I understand the wailing over the NAM. Looks great for much of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Inverted trough still keeps the snow going well into Tuesday if you want to buy the NAM 48+ hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Nam is pretty decent up here, .5qpf through Monday into Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Not sure I understand the wailing over the NAM. Looks great for much of the area. Because it's drier Because it's trending toward the Euro idea of redeveloper skipping over us. Its really not that great relative to what we had going in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The whole character of the storm has changed on the runs. We were in a good spot, though tenuous, when this was a simple vort passage/clipper system. Now we are staring at a digging redeveloper, and that bodes poorly for us. Yeah.. tho we did get snow in a lot of runs the 500mb always bothered me a bit though. I just assumed once it tightened up and made a good pass that was the trend. There were a lot of runs with the bagginess way south even with a vort passing nearby. I dunno. If this screws us and hits New England.. oy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Don't look at NE. Just don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Inverted trough still keeps the snow going well into Tuesday if you want to buy the NAM 48+ hrs out. Good luck wit that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I guess we can hope it digs far enough and redevelops further south and become a hybrid A/B? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The NAM really isnt that bad...it wraps around moisture an keeps it snowing for a while..it may not be right but its not terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Because it's drier Because it's trending toward the Euro idea of redeveloper skipping over us. Its really not that great relative to what we had going in. I guess I didn't look closely enough at the earlier runs but this paints .5 - .75 over the DC north area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Don't look at NE. Just don't. It's like the Euro but with NAM QPF! We suck at life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 24, 2015 Author Share Posted January 24, 2015 First call to lighten the mood. I have been pretty good with these in the past, and did decently well for the airports the other day. Forecasted just a bit low on that event. For this go around... IAD 2.3 BWI 2.9 DCA 1.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The NAM really isnt that bad...it wraps around moisture an keeps it snowing for a while..it may not be right but its not terrible. I guess it is no longer as good for DC south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 NAM looks like a nice hit around these parts... def better for Baltimore than DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I guess it is no longer as good for DC south. Not bad up this way... lol look at SNE. 30"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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