stormtracker Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 GFS holds...looks like .5 or so for DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Nice to hear tracker and fan, thanks. That was grim reading before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I'll take the Hi-Res NAM and run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Tracker/Snowfan- do you have the RGEM past 48 hours? Does anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 06z RGEM goes out to 54hrs. It looks wetter than the NAM thru the end of the run from the DC area southward, w/ more to come. Surface temps are warm to start, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Where can I get that? It's on the AmWx model site, but I believe the Canadian site carries it too w/ full precip depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 My call for MBY is 1.8" total. I think Sunday gets up to about 44 degrees and as is the usual the precip gets here early so the heavy stuff is waisted on rain...the turnover will be fun and the accumulation will be quick but brief and then it will just be light non accumulating snow on Monday. After the event Ji will then proclaim victory on his 0-3 prediction despite two of the events will have delivered some snow...also DT will post something about how he nailed this back in December Obviously I'm just guessing...using model trends or my interpretation of them splashed with some seasonal trends and knowledge of my areas climo and yes....lots of pessimism...but hey...I've been more right then wrong this year despite my complete and total lack of skill. Good luck...hope I'm wrong and it's more. Don't forget my call that the cold coming will be pretty unimpressive and short lived Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 ^ That was a joy to wake up to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 ^ That was a joy to wake up to. lol I know right. Good morning Debbie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 ^ That was a joy to wake up to. On a better note both the 6z nam and gfs show more blue shaded colors for the 24 hour precip maps of our area as compared with previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The next big storm on gfs is non snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 ^ That was a joy to wake up to.its like waking up and reading your own tweet s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The next big storm on gfs is non snow Looks like 32 and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 A little blurb from Mount Holly AFD this morning. I could see a scenario where both the far western and eastern areas do the best, with the area in between getting lighter amounts. If I didn't have to work I might road trip to Rehoboth THERE IS OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS STORM TO DEEPEN CLOSER TO THE COASTON MONDAY. THIS CERTAINLY PORTENDS TO BECOME AT LEAST AN ADVISORYSITUATION FOR THE DELMARVA AND COASTAL NEW JERSEY AND NEEDS TO BEMONITORED FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT POWDERY AMOUNTS OF SNOW. SNOW WATERRATIOS SHOULD BE MUCH DRIER THAN WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT....INOTHER WORDS FLUFFIER.A POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE IS IN THE OFFING FORA PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 TO 25MPH MAY CAUSE SOME DRIFTING OF THE SNOW ON THE DELMARVA...ESPECIALLYTHE DELAWARE COAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 03Z SREF has a mean of 7.4" for Martinsburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Personally think 2-5 or 4-6 might be the correct call for DC area --- but it would be nice to have the EURO on board as well. Hope the 12z runs hold (or improve slightly) and EURO wakes up. Snowstorm would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Euro has to be off given consensus... but it is Euro so eh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 A little blurb from Mount Holly AFD this morning. I could see a scenario where both the far western and eastern areas do the best, with the area in between getting lighter amounts. If I didn't have to work I might road trip to Rehoboth THERE IS OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS STORM TO DEEPEN CLOSER TO THE COAST ON MONDAY. THIS CERTAINLY PORTENDS TO BECOME AT LEAST AN ADVISORY SITUATION FOR THE DELMARVA AND COASTAL NEW JERSEY AND NEEDS TO BE MONITORED FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT POWDERY AMOUNTS OF SNOW. SNOW WATER RATIOS SHOULD BE MUCH DRIER THAN WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT....IN OTHER WORDS FLUFFIER. A POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE IS IN THE OFFING FOR A PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 TO 25 MPH MAY CAUSE SOME DRIFTING OF THE SNOW ON THE DELMARVA...ESPECIALLY THE DELAWARE COAST. Yeah, if the Euro solution plays out it would be torture, precip to the west of the area in PA, West VA, western MD, that reforms and buries NYC/eastern NJ/ and LI. But skips over Baltimore/DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Euro has to be off given consensus... but it is Euro so eh. so pull the trigger....you would go w/it or you wouldn't? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 so pull the trigger....you would go w/it or you wouldn't? I waited up for it since I was up late and today was my forecast.. and then ended up basically entirely disregarding it. I did remove "shovelable" from the title just in case. But no.. I wouldn't go with 0z, esp since the other models seem to be holding since. If they all start bailing and 12z backs it up maybe a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I waited up for it since I was up late and today was my forecast.. and then ended up basically entirely disregarding it. I did remove "shovelable" from the title just in case. But no.. I wouldn't go with 0z, esp since the other models seem to be holding since. If they all start bailing and 12z backs it up maybe a different story. well, I think it's wrong on the qpf but the warmth is now starting to worry me this is the GFS info for BWI.....it's quickly turning into another last minute, pos storm for us I fear http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KBWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 9z sref seem to like 2-4" for DCA and bwi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 well, I think it's wrong on the qpf but the warmth is now starting to worry me this is the GFS info for BWI.....it's quickly turning into another last minute, pos storm for us I fear http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KBWI the warmth is a concern for sure though i'm not sure the models are handling things completely right as it gets going. i'd rather not hit 50 tomorrow tho that's for sure. but i think we'd see temps drop pretty rapidly as the system happens.. i undercut guidance a bit on that.. maybe too much, went u 10s to mid-20s by Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 the warmth is a concern for sure though i'm not sure the models are handling things completely right as it gets going. i'd rather not hit 50 tomorrow tho that's for sure. but i think we'd see temps drop pretty rapidly as the system happens.. i undercut guidance a bit on that.. maybe too much, went u 10s to mid-20s by Monday morning. RGEM did pretty darn well with last night's storm qpf-wise, though it was too cold if the 6Z run is any indication on qpf, I think we can get .5", but it shows rain falling up to the PA border on its 48 hr map http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/06_054_R1_north@america_I_QPFTYPES_t6_048.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 My call for MBY is 1.8" total. I think Sunday gets up to about 44 degrees and as is the usual the precip gets here early so the heavy stuff is waisted on rain...the turnover will be fun and the accumulation will be quick but brief and then it will just be light non accumulating snow on Monday. After the event Ji will then proclaim victory on his 0-3 prediction despite two of the events will have delivered some snow...also DT will post something about how he nailed this back in December Obviously I'm just guessing...using model trends or my interpretation of them splashed with some seasonal trends and knowledge of my areas climo and yes....lots of pessimism...but hey...I've been more right then wrong this year despite my complete and total lack of skill. Good luck...hope I'm wrong and it's more. Don't forget my call that the cold coming will be pretty unimpressive and short lived sounds a bit wonky to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 well, I think it's wrong on the qpf but the warmth is now starting to worry me this is the GFS info for BWI.....it's quickly turning into another last minute, pos storm for us I fear http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KBWI Temps are an issue early on, but assuming there is some influence from the deepening coastal, temps will be crashing as the snow gets steadier. Question is how far south and how soon the trough goes neg. Need this to come together sooner/further south/closer to the coast. If not we watch folks up the coast get buried while we get an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Vort has closed off and has dug a little more by hour 30, also the SLP looks a little further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Not a good run for DC. We've seen that band set up before and it always points to the best spot to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Not a good run for DC. We've seen that band set up before and it always points to the best spot to be. Essentially 0 QPF through 12z Monday, don't like seeing the NAM/EURO teamed up against us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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