lsukev Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The surface low zig zags north and south until it reaches the Atlantic. Weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The whole series seems wonky on the euro. Has a weak vort that meanders from West Virginia to Southern North Carolina in 6 hours. It develops into a Miller B and than bombs out to 979 mb? It would basically end civilization on eastern long Island and Nantucket verbatim. Not impossible, but if the high is a driving mechanism to the original vort, it would have a more defined track than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The whole series seems wonky on the euro. Has a weak vort that meanders from West Virginia to Southern North Carolina in 6 hours. It develops into a Miller B and than bombs out to 979 mb? It would basically end civilization on eastern long Island and Nantucket verbatim. Not impossible, but if the high is a driving mechanism to the original vort, it would have a more defined track than that. I was better off not having watched that.. now that I see it.. makes more sense. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Just looking at H5 @ 51 hours you would have thought this was going to be a great run, it ends up crushing SNE with the late phase, but this is a pretty interesting storm whether it hits us or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 25 billion dollars worth of guidance later -- 4 to 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Just looking at H5 @ 51 hours you would have thought this was going to be a great run, it ends up crushing SNE with the late phase, but this is a pretty interesting storm whether it hits us or not. It's almost February. It's only interesting if it hits us. Otherwise it's sickening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 It's almost February. It's only interesting if it hits us. Otherwise it's sickening. Well yeah obviously it would suck, but from a meteorological standpoint, what the EURO does would be pretty wicked to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Just looking at H5 @ 51 hours you would have thought this was going to be a great run, it ends up crushing SNE with the late phase, but this is a pretty interesting storm whether it hits us or not. No sir. No it is not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Well yeah obviously it would suck, but from a meteorological standpoint, what the EURO does would be pretty wicked to see It would be interesting to see the meltdown here for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I'm going with GFS is better for northern stream till it bails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Well yeah obviously it would suck, but from a meteorological standpoint, what the EURO does would be pretty wicked to see I know what you're saying but the time is now to cash in. I've seen enough New England blizzards that leave us high and dry. Watching a scenario play out as depicted on tonight's Euro would be unbearable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 FWIW the GEFS is even south of the OP (central NC). Still a very good solution for DC assuming it's potent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 No way gfs is wrong 48 hours out on a clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 24, 2015 Author Share Posted January 24, 2015 I just want another 2"+ event. They're my bar usually. This one is going south a lot. I either want it to dig to the gulf and come up the coast or come north a bit back to 12z and overnight last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I'm going with GFS is better for northern stream till it bails. Nice thing is we are only 2 days away.. so it will not be a slow meltdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I'd like to see the initial vort trend north a bit, at this point. Don't want to see it buried in NC before the transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 It's just one run of the euro but I'm torn how to feel about the fact it dies eventually bomb out the low. I want a higher end event. But not sure if a bombing out miller b scenario can work for us. Obviously it diesel on this run but can we get a combo of the gfs and euro where this bombs out off Norfolk instead if New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 FWIW, if people remember, Euro gave us a run with like 0.10" QPF like 24-36 hours before 1/21/14, and then corrected itself next run...it is the best model, but it still screws up northern stream stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 FWIW, if people remember, Euro gave us a run with like 0.10" QPF like 24-36 hours before 1/21/14, and then corrected itself next run...it is the best model, but it still screws up northern stream stuff It looks kinda whacky for the Thur/Fri system as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 FWIW, if people remember, Euro gave us a run with like 0.10" QPF like 24-36 hours before 1/21/14, and then corrected itself next run...it is the best model, but it still screws up northern stream stuff on 1/19/14, 12z EURO gave DC 0.07" after being much more bullish the night before....then it corrected that night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 on 1/19/14, 12z EURO gave DC 0.07" after being much more bullish the night before....then it corrected that night... euro had major issues with 2-10-10 also. The night of the storm it cut way back and showed it missing us to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 SREF's look ok....It has the 40N bomb that actually backs into us a bit....0.4"+, but in 2 separate "events" through Tuesday morning...might as well stay up for the Euro ens at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 EPS are meh...maybe 0.15"?...there is one ok panel between 6z and 12z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Hopefully the GFS can score a coup here. Just need a slight slowage (and maybe a small northward bump) of the leading vort and we'll be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 6z NAM is like 0.35" for DC and more for western burbs...scaled back from before, but still would be an ok hit....my benchmark is 2" for MBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 24, 2015 Author Share Posted January 24, 2015 6z NAM is like 0.35" for DC and more for western burbs...scaled back from before, but still would be an ok hit....my benchmark is 2" for MBY A pretty good hold overall. IWM has 6" for Baltimore down to NW DC, and up to 8 by OKV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Is the surface low more south on this run of the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 24, 2015 Author Share Posted January 24, 2015 Is the surface low more south on this run of the NAM? Not this run according to my 3am eyes. Actually looks a few miles north to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 A pretty good hold overall. IWM has 6" for Baltimore down to NW DC, and up to 8 by OKV. yes...it's more like 0.6" for me, but that includes that stuff associated with the coastal late on Monday...it nails new england, but maybe that can be a good thing for us...not sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Gfs still a good hit but not as far south. Really nice for BWI and north/northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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