hosj III Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 10:1 is not the ratio to roll with given that this is a northern stream system. I managed a ratio of 11:1 on Wednesday despite temps above freezing. 15:1 is probably the best call right now. Given the first .1" is likely to be white rain, that gives DC about 6" for this run. Obviously looking at the soundings for snow ratios the day before is going to be more important than any guess at this point but assuming 10:1 is probably low-balling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 have you guys forgotten that ratios will likely be 1:12 or possibly 1:15? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Almost too much digging but we're just getting greedy. Insurance Wes, insurance....you know it's going to adjust north some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 yea i think at this point we want to lock this one in. i'm glad there's a least some precip into southern pa. allows for some wiggle room, but i don't think we want any further south at this point. I'd definitely lock this in now if I could. I'd like to see the Euro get juicier tonight, though I don't put as much stock in it with these types of systems. 2-4" event is looking good right now, with the potential for more, if all things go well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Insurance Wes, insurance....you know it's going to adjust north some I'd feel better if the euro liked it better but will be staying up for the GFS for the second straight night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I will be awake for the 0z euro sunday night even if we're expecting d10 torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 It's probably been discussed already, but here is the breakdown of the 18z GEFS as I can tell from the psu ewall site: Over .1" QPF: 12/12 Over .25" QPF: 11/12 Over .5" QPF: 6/12 Over .75" QPF: 1/12 Over 1" QPF: 1/12 (lol) So tossing the high and low outliers you have a general cluster around .5" QPF. Tossing .1" or so as white rain at onset you get .4 That supports a 4-6" event in DC proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 more would fall after 84 hours on this run (ala GFS?) take a look at the radar and 700mb RH http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_084_700_rh_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=700_rh_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150124+00+UTC&imageSize=L&ps=model http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_084_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150124+00+UTC&imageSize=L&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 funny thing is, if everyone remembers, the Euro and the GFS had the long duration event days ago, then shifted it north to NE, lost the long duration and brought the vort back south to us, and now all the models seem to be liking the long duration thing https://video.search.yahoo.com/video/play;_ylt=A0LEVjI4DMNUvUkAfx0nnIlQ;_ylu=X3oDMTBsa3ZzMnBvBHNlYwNzYwRjb2xvA2JmMQR2dGlkAw--?p=Flounder+saying+Oh+Boy&tnr=21&vid=C997D98E16A0939097EDC997D98E16A0939097ED&l=6&turl=http%3A%2F%2Fts3.mm.bing.net%2Fth%3Fid%3DUN.608007966140073270%26pid%3D15.1&sigi=11r70hp19&rurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3D0KDm7s0PhDI&sigr=11alim1ii&tt=b&tit=Oh+Boy+is+this+Great!!!&sigt=10n2uagpn&back=https%3A%2F%2Fsearch.yahoo.com%2Fyhs%2Fsearch%3Fp%3DFlounder%2Bsaying%2BOh%2BBoy%26ei%3DUTF-8%26hsimp%3Dyhs-001%26hspart%3Dmozilla&sigb=132e6dbbj&hspart=mozilla&hsimp=yhs-001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Hi Res nails north central VA....still gives DC 0.3" through 60 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Monday looks like the best day this winter. 19 degrees at 7:00 a.m. at MRB on the NAM with 0.54" QPF on the ground. Stays in the low 20's all day. Wind chills near 10 for shoveling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Hi-res NAM supports a quick changeover. Rain moves into DC around 10pm and by 1 am, the RA/SN line is south of Spotsylvania. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 funny thing is, if everyone remembers, the Euro and the GFS had the long duration event days ago, then shifted it north to NE, lost the long duration and brought the vort back south to us, and now all the models seem to be liking the long duration thing https://video.search.yahoo.com/video/play;_ylt=A0LEVjI4DMNUvUkAfx0nnIlQ;_ylu=X3oDMTBsa3ZzMnBvBHNlYwNzYwRjb2xvA2JmMQR2dGlkAw--?p=Flounder+saying+Oh+Boy&tnr=21&vid=C997D98E16A0939097EDC997D98E16A0939097ED&l=6&turl=http%3A%2F%2Fts3.mm.bing.net%2Fth%3Fid%3DUN.608007966140073270%26pid%3D15.1&sigi=11r70hp19&rurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3D0KDm7s0PhDI&sigr=11alim1ii&tt=b&tit=Oh+Boy+is+this+Great!!!&sigt=10n2uagpn&back=https%3A%2F%2Fsearch.yahoo.com%2Fyhs%2Fsearch%3Fp%3DFlounder%2Bsaying%2BOh%2BBoy%26ei%3DUTF-8%26hsimp%3Dyhs-001%26hspart%3Dmozilla&sigb=132e6dbbj&hspart=mozilla&hsimp=yhs-001 Once we get closer, we'll get a better idea how to parse this long duration thing. What radar simulations look like. Whether it is random snowshowers, or some persistent -SN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 This NAM run is something else. 30 hours of snow for just about everyone in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Hi Res nails north central VA....still gives DC 0.3" through 60 hours It sure didn't do well with the last clipper but is nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 This NAM run is something else. 30 hours of snow for just about everyone in this thread. sw is the little bro on this forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 sw is the little bro on this forum You belong in the SE forum. Your climo is really totally different than NoVA and MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 48 hr RGEM...aimed right at us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 You belong in the SE forum. Your climo is really totally different than NoVA and MD. Have much more in common w you than them...Roa averages 21....LYH 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 You belong in the SE forum. Your climo is really totally different than NoVA and MD. However this is the Mid-Atlantic forum.... All of VA is part of the Mid-Atlantic.... Maybe we need a subforum just for NoVA,MD and DE http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mid-Atlantic_states Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Have much more in common w you than them...Roa averages 21....LYH 18 you guys have just been screwed badly the last few years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 00Z NAM has closed lows at 850 and 700mb like Wxman1 mentioned earlier. Better look aloft than 18Z had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 you guys have just been screwed badly the last few years Yep... much of southern VA except maybe Hampton Roads (two historic Norfolk storms in the past 10 years... wtf!!) has had it rough in recent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 you guys have just been screwed badly the last few years We did better than you all in 11 12 and 12 13....last year hit Climo on that last March 25 event. We are in most miller A events that impact the board vs the SE.. Clippers are small stripes. I don't think I'm out yet. Potent vort goes negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 at T-48 hrs. I don't think it comes any further south, but a trend north may occur but not much as I remain confident (for a weenie) that N/VA and MD will remain the best spots in general Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 sw is the little bro on this forum Sorry Huff. i did say just about everyone. Been a pretty rough stretch for u all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 We did better than you all in 11 12 and 12 13....last year hit Climo on that last March 25 event. We are in most miller A events that impact the board vs the SE.. Clippers are small stripes. I don't think I'm out yet. Potent vort goes negative shows how good my memory is lol last year sorta stunk vs. us though, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Have much more in common w you than them...Roa averages 21....LYH 18 Maybe from a totals perspective, but it sure seems like storms evolve differently down there and you get snow from all sorts of weird things that never give most of the forum snow. Strange Tennessee Valley and inland runner stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 So we are going to fight as we are on the verge of the best storm of the year??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 48 hr RGEM...aimed right at us Looking at the precip loop on coolwx it looks like it's sinking a little south of where we would like it for bwi north. Looks good trajectory for dc. Problem here is this is such a small impact area storm. With that vort track if this was more amped up none if us should have to worry but it's only giving precip to suck a narrow area. Someone is going to be unhappy in our area either south or north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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