AdamHLG Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I already told my kids there will be no school Monday. We're good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I already told my kids there will be no school Monday. We're good. Kiss of dwath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 This sort of clipper -- considering the strength/amplitude of the upper shortwave, is essentially a northern Miller B. We just have to hope the surface low tracks far enough south to lock in the cold air and keep us out of any dry slotting, but not too far south where we get moisture starved. What's interesting about this clipper is that because the upper shortwave is as amplified as progged (taking on a more negative tilt), the models maintain a discernible surface low throughout the process -- i.e. not like you're typical Miller B that weakens over the OH Valley and re-forms along the mid Atlantic coast. That could be key in terms of maintaining the swath of at least moderate CCB precip east of the mountains -- if the surface low can stay to our south (while the 850 mb low remains closed off), we've got ourselves a real good shot here. Areas just north of the 850 mb low would most probably hit the jackpot -- especially if we can get any closure at 700 mb. Tthis would only help to deepen the moist easterly fetch/isentropic lift into a nice compact deformation band/comma head. Nice post and totally agree. This setup is basically what we root hard for with every clipper but rarely happen with a nice defined slp tracking south and keeping the shield intact. Still kinda nervous with what happens when the low crosses the mountains and jumps offshore. Still much better than the typical weak undefined low that gets shredded over the mountains.I know folks near the blue ridge and Fred valley hate that scenario. If the low can stay together with defined circ on this track then a lot of us are in good shape for a fun storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Nice post and totally agree. This setup is basically what we root hard for with every clipper but rarely happen with a nice defined slp tracking south and keeping the shield intact. Still kinda nervous with what happens when the low crosses the mountains and jumps offshore. Still much better than the typical weak undefined low that gets shredded over the mountains.I know folks near the blue ridge and Fred valley hate that scenario. If the low can stay together with defined circ on this track then a lot of us are in good shape for a fun storm. NAM is going to smoke us. Compare the h5 maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 NAM is going to smoke us. Compare the h5 maps. looks slightly further south so far. precip shield about the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 looks slightly further south so far. precip shield about the same. Yeah as long as the baroclinic zone and the lip of the troff are in the same spot we're good. So far difference from 18z is minor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 My "we" is pretty much to include all the area and the usual posters. A group collective high 5, if you will, as opposed to the most of us gazing at the warnings on mt. parkton or out toward winchester... Oook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 NAM looks like its going to run the max precip along and just to the south of the Potomac. Nice run unfolding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 NAM looks like its going to run the max precip along and just to the south of the Potomac. Nice run unfolding. Hey I live there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Well, the right turn at Albuquerque makes "me" a little nervous. Redevelopment is off obx. Similar to GEFS mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Long duration snow machine (albeit light after the intial thump) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 NAM simulates 0.3-0.7" of precipitation for DCA itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Not too worried about the precip shield right now. Good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 NAM simulates 0.3-0.7" of precipitation for DCA itself. Pardon? I believe it gives a precise amount Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Long duration snow machine (albeit light after the intial thump) Looks quite a bit like the gfs version with the tail. Wes will love this run as much as the gfs. No doubt about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Through 00z Tuesday, DC approaching 0.6". Not sure I buy the really long duration event but this would be a 5-6" snowfall, verbatim. Nice run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 NAM is going to smoke us. Compare the h5 maps. Almost too much digging but we're just getting greedy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Well, the right turn at Albuquerque makes "me" a little nervous. Redevelopment is off obx. Similar to GEFS mean. Lol...I miss Bugs... . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Lol, I keep waiting for the models to shorten the duration but it just keeps snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Looks quite a bit like the gfs version with the tail. Wes will love this run as much as the gfs. No doubt about that. I get into some kind of banding feature though the very best of it is just to the south. Still, I'm guessing I'm at least .60. Haven't seen the 24 hr QPF yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Looks quite a bit like the gfs version with the tail. Wes will love this run as much as the gfs. No doubt about that. I sense that this one has you nervous. I mean more nervous than we all usually are when it comes to modeled storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 It hits us dead-one, but it is worrisome that the spatial extent of the snow as depicted on tropical tidbits.com decreases steadily between Minnesota (hour 30) and hour 66. Doesn't mean the storm is dieing (it is moving into latitudes less friendly to snow) but it does mean the sweet spot is small. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Almost too much digging but we're just getting greedy. I'm rooting for you to jackpot. You've been on the short side too much the last couple years. I hope you are top end region wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I sense that this one has you nervous. I mean more nervous than we all usually are when it comes to modeled storms. Not nervous of a whiff. My greedometer is high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Through 00z Tuesday, DC approaching 0.6". Not sure I buy the really long duration event but this would be a 5-6" snowfall, verbatim. Nice run. yea i think at this point we want to lock this one in. i'm glad there's a least some precip into southern pa. allows for some wiggle room, but i don't think we want any further south at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Longest period of snizzle ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 It snows from 51 hours through the end of the run without stopping...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 This is more banter, but I think we all know how this will shake out in the end. The northerners will max, but it's starting to look like a nice 2-5" event area-wide with the chance for some higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 This is more banter, but I think we all know how this will shake out in the end. The northerners will max, but it's starting to look like a nice 2-5" event area-wide with the chance for some higher amounts. I don't know. BWI is doing better than me and so is Columbia. And it tails off to Philly. Clippers like DC better than Baltimore so far this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 This is more banter, but I think we all know how this will shake out in the end. The northerners will max, but it's starting to look like a nice 2-5" event area-wide with the chance for some higher amounts. Could easily happen but we're kinda close and the jackpot seems to favor dca south where we stand right now. The trend for the last 2 days has been to dig more. A reversal is becoming less likely with each suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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