Ian Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 If you blend the Euro/GGEM/NAM/GFS, take 75% of it for QPF overinflation, pixie dust, non accumulating front end. and use 11:1 ratios, we still get over 4"We might still be on last year's heater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 We might still be on last year's heater. Or we might strike out as we get closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Or we might strike out as we get closer In a normal situation id be more worried. We've been money on these sys this month tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 GFS is a lot better for areas North of Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Or we might strike out as we get closer A bit close for their usefull range but there was maybe 1-2 euro ens members with more than .25. The mean was around .10. Gfs and nam have done better leading into ns vorts so I'm not that concerned about the euro yet. All the ingredients are there for at least a moderate event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 A bit close for their usefull range but there was maybe 1-2 euro ens members with more than .25. The mean was around .10. Gfs and nam have done better leading into ns vorts so I'm not that concerned about the euro yet. All the ingredients are there for at least a moderate event. I'm more weary of a north trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 SOmeone should start a thread for Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 SOmeone should start a thread for Thursday Snow on snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 First Watch/Warning of the year? Had a token warning for the clipper I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Since my biggest event has been 3.25" (3 times) it would be nice to pull at least 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Unlike the last clipper it looks like this snow should have some staying power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Had a token warning for the clipper I think. I don't think so - not up here anyway. There was a late warning a few counties west of DC, but nothing area-wide. And we def have not had a watch yet this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Had a token warning for the clipper I think. nope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 What a pretty map. Wes would be one happy dude if it verifies. happyhour.JPG This sort of clipper -- considering the strength/amplitude of the upper shortwave, is essentially a northern Miller B. We just have to hope the surface low tracks far enough south to lock in the cold air and keep us out of any dry slotting, but not too far south where we get moisture starved. What's interesting about this clipper is that because the upper shortwave is as amplified as progged (taking on a more negative tilt), the models maintain a discernible surface low throughout the process -- i.e. not like you're typical Miller B that weakens over the OH Valley and re-forms along the mid Atlantic coast. That could be key in terms of maintaining the swath of at least moderate CCB precip east of the mountains -- if the surface low can stay to our south (while the 850 mb low remains closed off), we've got ourselves a real good shot here. Areas just north of the 850 mb low would most probably hit the jackpot -- especially if we can get any closure at 700 mb. Tthis would only help to deepen the moist easterly fetch/isentropic lift into a nice compact deformation band/comma head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 21z SREF mean for DC is 0.25"+ and it looks to be all snow, with surface temps below freezing. Closest 0.5" contour is offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 21z SREF mean for DC is 0.25"+ and it looks to be all snow, with surface temps below freezing. Closest 0.5" contour is offshore. actually, I believe it's more than what may initially appear since the snow falls for >24 hours we should take the 12 hr. map ending 63 hours and add to it the 24 hr. map ending 87 hrs.; they are below http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=063ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F21%2Fsref_namer_063_precip_p12.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=precip_p12&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150123+21+UTC&imageSize=&ps=model http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=087ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F21%2Fsref_namer_087_precip_p24.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150123+21+UTC&imageSize=&ps=model EDIT: not that .25+ isn't correct, but I think it's closer to .35-.4" when both maps are considered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I don't think so - not up here anyway. There was a late warning a few counties west of DC, but nothing area-wide. And we def have not had a watch yet this winter. I have, warning too. The snow before thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I have, warning too. The snow before thanksgiving. Sure. But, again, that wasn't area-wide. Hoping for an area-wide watch and warning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Sure. But, again, that wasn't area-wide. Hoping for an area-wide watch and warning event. Well, you said we. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 actually, I believe it's more than what may initially appear since the snow falls for >24 hours we should take the 12 hr. map ending 63 hours and add to it the 24 hr. map ending 87 hrs.; they are below http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=063ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F21%2Fsref_namer_063_precip_p12.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=precip_p12&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150123+21+UTC&imageSize=&ps=model http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=087ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F21%2Fsref_namer_087_precip_p24.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150123+21+UTC&imageSize=&ps=model EDIT: not that .25+ isn't correct, but I think it's closer to .35-.4" when both maps are considered That's a really good point, actually - thanks for catching that. You must have taken your V8 today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Well, you said we. My "we" is pretty much to include all the area and the usual posters. A group collective high 5, if you will, as opposed to the most of us gazing at the warnings on mt. parkton or out toward winchester... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I have, warning too. The snow before thanksgiving. To be fair, that warning didn't exactly verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Let's hope the 0Z model suite holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Tonight feels like the night GFS and euro come in dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Several Gefs members move the low off Virginia and then hook it back into New England. Been through a lot of solutions with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Several Gefs members move the low off Virginia and then hook it back into New England. Been through a lot of solutions with this. Let's stall it for 4 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Tonight feels like the night GFS and euro come in dry Why man. Why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 It's like ppl want failure. They like the pain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Why man. Why. Ji texted me and wanted me to post that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Already can tell this run of the NAM is gonna be good. Again..digging s/w.....trof axis stretching a bit further southwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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