snowdude Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I'm not just saying this because I live here but I find the GFS snowfall map funny along the eastern shore. With this system, the temps would not be an issue during the second half of the storm. I would expect more accumulation along the eastern shore instead of it just cutting off like that right at the bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Other clippers this season have easily made it to the shore and this one is stronger and colder, and turns into a coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Other clippers this season have easily made it to the shore and this one is stronger and colder, and turns into a coastal. Agree as the last clipper was almost 100% snow (2") here on th NJ cape with less cold air to work with and a weaker overall structure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Other clippers this season have easily made it to the shore and this one is stronger and colder, and turns into a coastal. Thats the biggest difference. This is a much stronger vort to start with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Looks like .25 or so thru Monday DC and surrounds based on SV. Not sure I love the 500 'trends' since last night overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 The euro digs this thing south, way south based on a quick glance at h5 maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 SLP track is fine. Just not as organzied. Track is south of last night but hardly a big shift south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 SLP track is fine. Just not as organzied. Track is south of last night but hardly a big shift south. Probably just noise at this point. I'd like to see more precip (obviously) from the EURO/Canadian in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 SLP track is fine. Just not as organzied. Track is south of last night but hardly a big shift south. We'll get snow unless something tragic happens but the look of GFS/Euro at this point is not really a boom event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 We'll get snow unless something tragic happens but the look of GFS/Euro at this point is not really a boom event. It's a widespread .25 through 0z tuesday. You would think with an amped up vort and defined slp to the west tracking right through sva there would be more precip. The last 2 clippers pale in comparison with the approach and strength. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 It's a widespread .25 through 0z tuesday. You would think with an amped up vort and defined slp to the west tracking right through sva there would be more precip. The last 2 clippers pale in comparison with the approach and strength. We'll see.Starting at 2Z or so? That isn't much for such a long duration event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 It's a widespread .25 through 0z tuesday. You would think with an amped up vort and defined slp to the west tracking right through sva there would be more precip. The last 2 clippers pale in comparison with the approach and strength. We'll see. Well my bar is higher than those events at this range. Perhaps it shouldn't be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Starting at 2Z or so? That isn't much for such a long duration event Somewhere around there. Surface doesn't go below freezing until after 6z in the dc burbs. Best panel is 6z-12z but only a .10 for the most part. The duration would imply a ragged precip shield. I'll go against the euro and say if the h5/slp track go like that, there will be more precip to the N of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Well my bar is higher than those events at this range. Perhaps it shouldn't be. Mine too. I think I need Wes to explain why precip appears light/disorganized. The evolution to me looks more like a .25-.50 event than a drawn out .25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Mine too. I think I need Wes to explain why precip appears light/disorganized. The evolution to me looks more like a .25-.50 event than a drawn out .25. The vort pass is fine but it's not great. I think that's a big part of it. The meat passes well south and it's strung out/tilts negative late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 My 'concern' through yesterday was it never was terrible consolidated. I thought we were moving past that last night but maybe a blip. The trailing energy might be part of the problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The vort pass is fine but it's not great. I think that's a big part of it. The meat passes well south and it's strung out/tilts negative late. I want to wait until tomorrow evening when the "noise" from this current event gets out of the way and see how models handle it then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Clippers often times have a narrow band of heavier qpf that the globals have a tough time pinpointing. In general with clippers it's safe to set expectations at 1-3" with boom and bust potential area wide, IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 My 'concern' through yesterday was it never was terrible consolidated. I thought we were moving past that last night but maybe a blip. The trailing energy might be part of the problem. too many vorts in the pattern? could be that old standby weenie rule of its unsure which one to key on so it does what we see on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Could be the old rule of placing too much faith in the Euro. Wasn't it just yesterday that it was discussed that the gfs does better with ns events? I thought the gfs looked ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Mine too. I think I need Wes to explain why precip appears light/disorganized. The evolution to me looks more like a .25-.50 event than a drawn out .25. I suspect that someone will get a narrow heavier band .25+ like the GFS has but whether it is in the GFS, NAM or Euro location, who knows. ian, hit on part of why the Euro is not that great looking. It's vorticity gets a little strung out and almost has a slight positive tilt until it gets offshore. That also prevents the surface low from really bombing out until the low gets offshore too much to help us much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I suspect that someone will get a narrow heavier band .25+ like the GFS has but whether it is in the GFS, NAM or Euro location, who knows. ian, hit on part of why the Euro is not that great looking. It's vorticity gets a little strung out and almost has a slight positive tilt until it gets offshore. That also prevents the surface low from really bombing out until the low gets offshore too much to help us much. Makes sense. Still plenty of time for things to shift around (for better or worse.lol) GFS is the wettest and Euro is the driest CMC in between. I'm not sure how much the ukie had precip wise. At least all show some snow so there's that. GEFS showed a lot of spread including some too far south solutions. We'll just sweat it out as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Could be the old rule of placing too much faith in the Euro. Wasn't it just yesterday that it was discussed that the gfs does better with ns events? I thought the gfs looked ok GFS is the top end of the 12z suite. I'm not placing too much faith in anything. But I'm not tossing a strung out and drier solution. In between all guidance is still a decent outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 GFS is the top end of the 12z suite. I'm not placing too much faith in anything. But I'm not tossing a strung out and drier solution. In between all guidance is still a decent outcome. If your expectations are in check no real reason to be upset at this point. I'd bet I do better than midweek unless poof or something. But it's hard not to want to see the higher end reached... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 If your expectations are in check no real reason to be upset at this point. I'd bet I do better than midweek unless poof or something. But it's hard not to want to see the higher end reached... GEFS mean is way south with redevelopment. I hope we didn't wish too hard for a south trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The ops have definitely headed south since last night as a whole. I dunno.. kinda close to heavily weight ens mean no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 from no HP to our north to one that is just a tad bit too much if trends take it more south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 GEFS mean is way south with redevelopment. I hope we didn't wish too hard for a south trend. I'm not in that much angst about it being too far south yet. I look at it as insurance at this point in case of the late move back north the models tend to do toward crunch time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The ops have definitely headed south since last night as a whole. I dunno.. kinda close to heavily weight ens mean no? Just being guilty of looking at too much stuff. A blend of the euro/gfs op is definitely the way to go for now and the next couple days. 12z Sunday GFS is the most important. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Just being guilty of looking at too much stuff. A blend of the euro/gfs op is definitely the way to go for now and the next couple days. 12z Sunday GFS is the most important. lol Yes, that run should clear things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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