eurojosh Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 These aren't unheard of....these long duration events 1/25-27/2004 2/26-28/2003 were both over 48 hours, and both had precip most of the time....1/25-27 I think had SN or ZR every single OB....2/26-28 was all snow, and there were gaps for a few hours here and there, but basically it snowed for 60 hours...both were 6" events Here are the OPM analogues based on those years... 2004 January 28, 2004 Unscheduled Leave January 27 (PM) Early Dismissal January 27 (AM) Unscheduled Leave January 26, 2004 Unscheduled Leave 2003 February 28 Unscheduled Leave February 27 Open I think OPM analogues should be a thing with all storms... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 850's are between -3 and -5C according to WxBell's maps. That coupled with temps in the 20's and I would think we do better than 10:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Second batch deflected around us. Saw that...still almost a 24 hour event on the Canadian, though not nearly as much fun as the other models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 850's are between -3 and -5C according to WxBell's maps. That coupled with temps in the 20's and I would think we do better than 10:1 ratios. It's not the 850s and surface temps that control the ratios, it's temperatures in the snow-growth zones in the clouds. For good dendrite formation, you want (among other factors) temperatures between -10C and -20C. Looks like we'll have that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 My bar is a WSW hoisted for both metros and verifies in at least over 50% of the areas covered. So far today we are seriously winning the temp battle. It's a cold snow that will stick and stay. We live for those storms. It's a pretty perfect vort and slp track. That's my biggest focus. And we're inside of 3 days on this one (thank goodness because if we get a rainy miller A with nothing to look forward to afterwards would be awful). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 My bar is a WSW hoisted for both metros and verifies in at least over 50% of the areas covered. So far today we are seriously winning the temp battle. It's a cold snow that will stick and stay. We live for those storms. It's a pretty perfect vort and slp track. That's my biggest focus. And we're inside of 3 days on this one (thank goodness because if we get a rainy miller A with nothing to look forward to afterwards would be awful). Still nervous though..we have been burned before and although it looks impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 No one wants to comment on the UKMET? It looks amazing. Blows up off OC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I am with bobc. I want my first area wide winter storm watch of the season. And a warning thereafter. And I want it to verify area-wide. Hit those marks, even if low end, and that it is a full win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 No one wants to comment on the UKMET? It looks amazing. Blows up off OC. I was looking for an 84 hr map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I am with bobc. I want my first area wide winter storm watch of the season. And a warning thereafter. And I want it to verify area-wide. Hit those marks, even if low end, and that it is a full win. Same here... a solid 4-6"+ event would be nice, except I only really care about MBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 No one wants to comment on the UKMET? It looks amazing. Blows up off OC. Looks warm at the sfc (mid-upper 30s). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 12z UKIE at 72 12z UKIE at 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Still nervous though..we have been burned before and although it looks impressive NS vorts are tricky because they almost always come with inherent boom or bust potential. I'm less worried about this one that I was with the last 2. If this one doesn't give a pretty large area at least 3-4" I'll be surprised. Where that area will be is a moving target. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Looks warm at the sfc (mid-upper 30s). Would be another rain to snow system IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Would be another rain to snow system IMO With that slp track I kinda doubt warm enough for rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 With that slp track I kinda doubt warm enough for rain. Same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 With that slp track I kinda doubt warm enough for rain. Temps are slightly above freezing early... but looking more closely that makes sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 With that slp track I kinda doubt warm enough for rain. Yea the UKMET has a beautiful LP track shown above. Low really bombs out quick despite somewhat flat progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 It's not the 850s and surface temps that control the ratios, it's temperatures in the snow-growth zones in the clouds. For good dendrite formation, you want (among other factors) temperatures between -10C and -20C. Looks like we'll have that. What pressure level is the snow-growth zone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 With that slp track I kinda doubt warm enough for rain. probably.. it didn't start as rain this week and this looks better. UKMET looks neat.. bomb. best model with no good access to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 NS vorts are tricky because they almost always come with inherent boom or bust potential. I'm less worried about this one that I was with the last 2. If this one doesn't give a pretty large area at least 3-4" I'll be surprised. Where that area will be is a moving target.Yes...although Miller A can be tricky too for different reasons it seems so caution always I guess...tomorrow will be epic on the board if this holds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 probably.. it didn't start as rain this week and this looks better. UKMET looks neat.. bomb. best model with no good access to it. Hey at least we got it on weatherbell now Ian. Well snow maps and surface stuff, but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 probably.. it didn't start as rain this week and this looks better. UKMET looks neat.. bomb. best model with no good access to it. You don't have WxBell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 probably.. it didn't start as rain this week and this looks better. UKMET looks neat.. bomb. best model with no good access to it. It's on wxbell now but limited panels and sporadic updates. Still stuck @ 12z yesterday http://models.weatherbell.com/ukmet/ukmet_region.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 What pressure level is the snow-growth zone? Varies. Often around 700mb, but can be quite thick or rather narrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 You don't have WxBell? I do.. did see it was added. Pretty limited. SV only has 500mb at 24 hour increments too. And as Bob notes it's still showing yesterday's run at WxBell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Varies. Often around 700mb, but can be quite thick or rather narrow. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 It's on wxbell now but limited panels and sporadic updates. Still stuck @ 12z yesterday http://models.weatherbell.com/ukmet/ukmet_region.php Ah... I am stupid. Yoda, disregard my "warm" comment. I was looking at 12z for yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 FWIW, Here's a summary of the WPC outputs for this event: Model Diagnostics Discussion: AN ENERGETIC CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT PROGRESSION-WISE -- IT'S THE DEPTH ALOFT THAT'S AN ISSUE. CONSIDERING THE BREADTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, A WEAKER SOLUTION AT 500/700 HPA MAKES THE MOST SENSE. A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF/00Z CANADIAN APPEARS BEST MASS-FIELD WISE. FOR QPF DETAILS, CONSULT OUR QPF DISCUSSION (QPFPFD). QPF Discussion: DAY 3: ...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC... A SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW TRACKING OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...BEFORE REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. INCREASING MODEL SPREAD WITH TIME CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM LEADS TO A LOWER THAN AVERAGE FORECAST... ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC (ACROSS NORTHERN MD INTO SOUTHEAST PA...SOUTHERN NJ AND DE). AT THIS POINT...A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL AND SURFACE SYSTEMS APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY...THOUGH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF MAY BE TOO FAR SOUTH. IN AN ATTEMPT TO MITIGATE SOME OF THE DIFFERENCES...THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/21Z SREF MEAN/12Z ECMWF BLEND. AS THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE DEEPENS ON ITS TRIP FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMS ON A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING FROM EASTERN OH ACROSS SOUTHERN PA AND NORTHERN MD INTO THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA. THE MODEL SPREAD IS FOCUSED ON THE POSITION OF THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE (AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE). MOST 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE (INCLUDING THE 00Z ECMWF) NOW HAVE A CLOSED 850 MB LOW TRACKING ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SO THE TREND TO TAKE QPF FURTHER SOUTH SEEMS JUSTIFIED. BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND GFS APPEAR TO BE A BIT TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE BEST LIFT (AND RESULTANT QPF)...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF PLACES THE HIGHEST QPF ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE WPC FORECAST IS CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE MODELS MENTIONED EARLIER...WHICH PLACES THE HIGHEST QPF (BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES) EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN MI AND NORTHEAST IN ACROSS MUCH OF OH INTO WESTERN PA. THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHEST QPF HAS IMPLICATIONS ON SNOWFALL IN THE REGION. CONSIDERING THE SHIFT IN MODEL QPF WITH THE 00Z MODEL SUITE...THERE MAY BE A MODEL CORRECTION WITH UPCOMING FORECASTS. And finally, Winter Weather Forecast Discussion: ...UPPER MS VALLEY...GREAT LAKES...NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...MID ATLANTIC... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND MOVES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS MN AND WI SUN AND THEN EITHER INTO THE GREAT LAKES OR OH VALLEY AFTERWARD. THE MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LOW SO LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IN BETWEEN SUPPORTS A STREAK OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD. DEEPER COLD AIR SHOULD RESULT IN RELATIVELY HIGHER SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS AND THUS LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL TOTALS. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE CYCLONE TIMING AND TRACK WITH THE ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOUTH OF THE NAM/GFS/GEFS MEAN/UKMET LOW POSITIONS ON DAY 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Ah... I am stupid. Yoda, disregard my "warm" comment. I was looking at 12z for yesterday. Pretty sure it's a good hit. Looks kinda GFS'ey from last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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