SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 And that's the more likely outcome. Long duration clippers only work with a perfect transfer/inverted trough. They are pretty uncommon. Bob, what are your thoughts on getting the surface right? In this set-up do you think we will flip to snow pretty quick? Edit: was just ninja'd by wes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 worked twice this month, why should it change now?If this verifies it is more than both combined, 10+ storm for someone in eastern MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Bob, what are your thoughts on getting the surface right? In this set-up do you think we will flip to snow pretty quick? Edit: was just nina'd by wes Definitely. It's pretty cold above. Temps would drop like a rock as soon as heavy rates kicked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Heh, if the high res nam is right, temps won't even be an issue... eta: scratch that. Picked dp panel instead of temps. Temps are 35-40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Get rates and I think this is going to be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I think I'm in love. The temps should crash pretty quickly.Yeah im not worried about temps much. Temps love to plummet on these scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Definitely. It's pretty cold above. Temps would drop like a rock as soon as heavy rates kicked in. Based on sim radar, heavy rates would kick in about 30 seconds after precip starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 One step forward, with sim radar at 35dbz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Something that kind of hurts is there is a 'kicker' behind the shortwaveNot a good one though, it doesn't deamplify the ridge or shift it east much. It may even have the opposite effect if it digs a little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Lock it in...actually bring it a tad north, dont want the S&E folks getting the jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Yeah im not worried about temps much. Temps love to plummet on these scenarios. It looks like a good amount of cold feeding into the storm. Wouldn't temps be falling throughout the night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmcwahoo Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Looks like Richmond too far south again. We just can't get in on anything this year. Not that there's been much, but at least a lot of folks have seen flakes and some accumulation. Big divide in the forum this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 With that thermal profile (and with clippers in general), we'd probably get ratios more like 12:1 with good dendrite formation. This certainly has warning-level potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I'll take the 06z GFS please. 9.5" for APG. Kind of OT: Did anyone see the GFS for Feb. 2nd? -10F sfc temps in N. Baltimore County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The NAM meteograms do indeed show a temperature plunge Sunday night and a quick change from rain to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Vort is sharper and more amped than 6z. Another good trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Vort is sharper and more amped than 6z. Another good trend. Yup, like it through 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I'm already getting excited about the GFS at 57hrs. I think this will be a good run. Famous last words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Vort is sharper and more amped than 6z. Another good trend. It's nice looking system, you guys are going to clipper your way to climo this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 It's digging like 120 miles south of 6z. Should be a good run (at least temperature wise) for all LWX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I'm already getting excited about the GFS at 57hrs. I think this will be a good run. Famous last words. First time I've heard you say this about a system this year. First time i've see you this enthused. I'm 100% in. With Wes going for 8-14", we can't miss yall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 First time I've heard you say this about a system this year. First time i've see you this enthused. I'm 100% in. With Wes going for 8-14", we can't miss yall. Dave said on his FB page Wes is going 18-24". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Seems a bit slower than the NAM at 60hrs... I think that's a good thing as the energy arrives in one packet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 It's nice looking system, you guys are going to clipper your way to climo this winter. I'm pretty sure nearly100% of our climo and climo+ winters include one good or multiple clippers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Damn, that vort pass is going to be a beaut. I honestly would like to see it go even further south for insurance with the inevitable north correction as we get close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 It's digging like 120 miles south of 6z. Should be a good run (at least temperature wise) for all LWX. Thats exciting to hear from someone in the southern part of LWX.....I am in Spotsylvania and occasionally its tough to get good info for around here......hope this is finally the real deal for around EZF and CHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I keep forgetting this is only 2 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 I keep forgetting this is only 2 days away.So you're forgetting the best part? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 It's good, but oddly enough, a bit drier than 6z and that had a more northern vort pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I-95 corridor has 2-4 I-81 corridor has 4-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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