HighStakes Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 7:52 PM, psuhoffman said: I interpret that as probably 1-2" front end then 4-5" back end with high ratios. I would be ok with that the problem us we all know the bust potential if this shifts east at all. Of course with the h5 track I could see a compromise if the ggem/ec and we are happy. Today's Euro looks real good right up until the panel it spreads the initial precip in the area. Definitely looked as though it should have been wetter for the front end, it just shears the precip too much or else we would be talking another .10-.15 in the first 24 hour period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Not really sure why LWX only did North/West counties. AA, Balt, etc. have the same chances as them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 7:57 PM, Yeoman said: NAMer is diggin! Unfortunately it is the second S/W we need to dig and pull the first one west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 7:57 PM, Ian said: LWX is still playing opposite forecast day. Considering guidance, it's just....odd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane M. Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 7:54 PM, usedtobe said: The euro ensemble mean has the same look as the operational, backs the precipitation back into DC. Has quite a few panels with .10" or more. Yup shows 4-8 for all of md west of bay and 8-12 east of bay. So ens onboard as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 7:59 PM, ThePhotoGuy said: Not really sure why LWX only did North/West counties. AA, Balt, etc. have the same chances as them. Hobestly, I'd ignore it. Let them play catch up. It's their specialty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 8:01 PM, snowfan said: Hobestly, I'd ignore it. Let them play catch up. It's their specialty. Oh, I agree. I just think it is dumb on their part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 whoa....EPS mean looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 8:03 PM, zwyts said: whoa....EPS mean looks good Yes it does... I count 15-20 ensemble members with 8"+ for DCA... will recount to double check Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Well, in NAM news..looks like it may be trying to get that trough tilted neutral sooner. I dunno..I'm looking for any and everything to help us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 8:00 PM, Shane M. said: Yup shows 4-8 for all of md west of bay and 8-12 east of bay. So ens onboard as well Oh? That's a lot better than I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 8:03 PM, zwyts said: whoa....EPS mean looks good I looked at each member. There are 26 royal screwjobs. 12 or so push the 6" line west of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 8:05 PM, Bob Chill said: I looked at each member. There are 26 royal screwjobs. 12 or so push the 6" line west of DC. I counted 17 with the 6" line right near/at/or west of DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 8:07 PM, yoda said: I counted 15 or so 15 or so screwjobs or the 6" line west of DC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 8:09 PM, Wonderdog said: 15 or so screwjobs or the 6" line west of DC? Edited my post... 6" line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Closed h5 low in NW KY at 30 on 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 7:56 PM, stormtracker said: So Watch up for N and W burbs. I guess. Yeah and pretty bullish call for 4-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 def appears colder earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 It's definitely digging even more at 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 About to Snow in DCA 10pm tomorrow night per 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 NAMage to ensue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 8:13 PM, clskinsfan said: Yeah and pretty bullish call for 4-6. You'd think they'd learn a lesson by now. Warning even includes mention of +SN. From what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 8:13 PM, clskinsfan said: Yeah and pretty bullish call for 4-6. Hate to say it but WTF LWX? I mean, didn't yesterday happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 All things considered, NAM looks better/wetter so far than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane M. Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 8:05 PM, stormtracker said: Oh? That's a lot better than I thought. Yeah it definitely doesn't have as harsh of a cut off over the area compared to the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 8:18 PM, Clueless said: Hate to say it but WTF LWX? I mean, didn't yesterday happen?assume they are just riding temps for now .. Or something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 8:03 PM, zwyts said: whoa....EPS mean looks good And it's biased east by those few really far-east outliers. Biggest cluster is just west of the mean's position. Although we're kind of inside where I usually put more emphasis on ensembles, at least for the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 8:20 PM, Ian said: assume they are just riding temps for now .. Or something I mean, I usually don't get into the whole worrying about Watches, etc and criticizing them for it..but it just seems kinda strange considering guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 8:18 PM, Clueless said: Hate to say it but WTF LWX? I mean, didn't yesterday happen? You must not have gotten the memo.. NWS is paid to be wrong and their Meteorologists love to fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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