Deck Pic Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 6:30 PM, zwyts said: Obviously parsing the minutia of a new solution is silly, but I have access to other subscription maps and are wetter and further west than WB....I wonder if WB even with the higher res has an off output this run edit...my other maps match WB...SV Is probably too wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 24, 2015 Author Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 6:33 PM, birdsofprey02 said: What is the timing? I'm worried about sun angle (jk)... late sunday evening maybe 12z into 3z? With the coastal this thing wouldnt give us snow from that until around Monday afternoon. I havent checked time stamps just my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Heavy 78 look to it Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 6:31 PM, UVVmet84 said: That is what worries me, what was the storm I'm thinking of...December 30, 2000? The evolution of this storm looks totally different than that one but the results could be the same except for the front end. 12/30/2000 had not front end at all, we were depending on a coastal developing solely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 6:30 PM, Bob Chill said: The uneasy feeling I have is if we took the last 30 relatively similar setups over the last however many years, heartbreak is a heavy favorite. The MA is rarely a complicated snow region. I think the upside is that this is the is the best coastal solution we have seen....so it is a pretty monster trend...not saying it will keep trending, but it could... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 6:31 PM, UVVmet84 said: That is what worries me, what was the storm I'm thinking of...December 30, 2000? That, or Dec 2010... I'm anxious about what tonight's 0z EURO will indicate but with all the drastic shifts it's too early to draw any conclusions. We could get anything from a simple 1-3 to a KU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 CLASSIC MILLER B Anlogs are FEB 8-10 1969.... FEB 5-7 1978 DEC 302000all 3 events were screw jobs for most of MD and VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 6:17 PM, Bob Chill said: Very sharp edge on wxbell maps. I don't see .7 @ dca? europrecip1.JPG Well. that is better than I expected to see. I would take being in the .5 contour any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 24, 2015 Author Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 6:36 PM, Fozz said: That, or Dec 2010... I'm anxious about what tonight's 0z EURO will indicate but with all the drastic shifts it's too early to draw any conclusions. We could get anything from a simple 1-3 to a KU. I guess thats what makes this so much fun... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Thanks Dave... we def needed that post of yours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 6:34 PM, Lowershoresadness said: kinda looks like Jan 87 except further up the coast Would say this maybe good snowfall analog accept along the Delmarva. H5 doesn't look similar. If the primary in 2005 were about 150 miles south that would make a good analog also. This storm draws almost all it's moisture off the atlantic and almost none from the gulf which is almost never good for the western 2/3 of our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 keep in mind that in MILLER Bs that BOMBS out liEr this the nw side of the Low/ precipo shield i always over done by models look at the SHARP cutoff on the Model between 4" and 14" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 6:38 PM, UVVmet84 said: I guess thats what makes this so much fun... Yep... I don't think I've ever seen models at this range shift from a modest northern VA clipper to a northeast HECS, in just 1-2 cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I should probably leave for my NY business trip tomorrow instead of Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 not even close Jan 1987 was miller a On 1/24/2015 at 6:38 PM, Amped said: Would say this maybe good snowfall analog accept along the Delmarva. H5 doesn't look similar. If the primary in 2005 were about 150 miles south that would make a good analog also. This storm draws almost all it's moisture off the atlantic and almost none from the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 24, 2015 Author Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 6:40 PM, DTWXRISK said: not even close Jan 1987 was miller a will you just post your first guess so we can discuss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 6:21 PM, mapgirl said: Total precip is a bit better than that, but yeah. Western folks need to hope for a better front end thump while eastern folks want the reach around Haha! I dont even know how to respond to this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 ??? EuroWx actually shows 30" in NJ, where WxBell shows 26". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 6:36 PM, zwyts said: I think the upside is that this is the is the best coastal solution we have seen....so it is a pretty monster trend...not saying it will keep trending, but it could... The trend has been pretty solid and hasn't shown signs of reversing yet. What it does in the next 12 hours will set the table for what we get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 6:41 PM, clskinsfan said: Haha! I dont even know how to respond to this one. Was the point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 6:36 PM, Fozz said: That, or Dec 2010... I'm anxious about what tonight's 0z EURO will indicate but with all the drastic shifts it's too early to draw any conclusions. We could get anything from a simple 1-3 to a KU. I managed to be on the western fringes in Dec 2010 storm. Was supposed to get a foot here and ended up with 5 inches, Coastal DE had 15 inches and of course much more as you went NE. Might look good for here on this run but I am skeptical. I was happy with the idea of getting a few inches lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Coming back from sby so I haven't been able to post, just read while driving. Anyway, let me just say that the euro has been crap with this so far so I don't know what to believe. gfs has been very good imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Definitely great steps toward what the GFS was showing a couple of nights ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 6:37 PM, DTWXRISK said: CLASSIC MILLER B Anlogs are FEB 8-10 1969.... FEB 5-7 1978 DEC 302000 all 3 events were screw jobs for most of MD and VA Calssic death band signature Philly to boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 6:17 PM, Bob Chill said: Very sharp edge on wxbell maps. I don't see .7 @ dca? europrecip1.JPG WOW! 1 inch QPF IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 6:41 PM, Warrior Bigfoot said: ??? EuroWx actually shows 30" in NJ, where WxBell shows 26". No, Weatherbell actually shows a 31" jackpot in N. NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 6:22 PM, Bob Chill said: It would only take a small adjustment with neg tilt and precip shield goes west quickly. The thing I hate is that we are literally on razor's edge. Every little tick counts with us now, bad or good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Jan 87 superbowl storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 6:30 PM, Bob Chill said: The uneasy feeling I have is if we took the last 30 relatively similar setups over the last however many years, heartbreak is a heavy favorite. The MA is rarely a complicated snow region. This. The biggest storm bust and disasters in my life have all come from this type of scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 24, 2015 Author Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 6:46 PM, stormtracker said: The thing I hate is that we are literally on razor's edge. Every little tick counts with us now, bad or good. I agree Rand, if we can get 50 miles west shift in the edge, which could come from a number of things (tilt, phase, low positioning, block), we would have a lot more to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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