stormtracker Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 On 1/23/2015 at 8:46 PM, Scuddz said: Wes with the cheap shot. Wes is a vicious SOB. Part of that Calvert County Crips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Lets go North Trend please, NAM looks ok for Northern MD. It's a Clipper though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 On 1/23/2015 at 8:47 PM, MN Transplant said: 0.7" or 0.8" total QPF for IAD/DCA, little less for BWI. So........ shave a tenth to account for possible rain at onset -- > 0.7, cut in half because of the NAM factor --> .35, account for ratios better than 10:1 (give it 12:1), and you're looking at 4.2. Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The Tuesday/Wednesday event on its heels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 On 1/23/2015 at 8:42 PM, interstate said: Throw it because it is the NAM? No, throw it because it shows me in the bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 On 1/23/2015 at 8:49 PM, stormtracker said: Wes is a vicious SOB. Part of that Calvert County Crips. lmao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I fully expect an old school gfs happy hour run. Book it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 On 1/23/2015 at 8:50 PM, NinjaWarrior2 said: Lets go North Trend please, NAM looks ok for Northern MD. It's a Clipper though. Not really. Wednesday's clipper would be more lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 If it means even an inch less snow for me, I hope northern areas of this forum are completely shut out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 On 1/23/2015 at 8:46 PM, Scuddz said: Wes with the cheap shot. It has its purposes but at the time range we're dealing with, it's clearly not up with the other models. The UKMET is pretty good and it had a nice solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 On 1/23/2015 at 8:51 PM, Bob Chill said: I fully expect an old school gfs happy hour run. Book it Well it is friday so its time for happy hour anyway....but seriously if we could just end up somewhere between the global guidance and the NAM that would be awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 On 1/23/2015 at 8:51 PM, zwyts said: If it means even an inch less snow for me, I hope northern areas of this forum are completely shut out LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 On 1/23/2015 at 8:51 PM, zwyts said: If it means even an inch less snow for me, I hope northern areas of this forum are completely shut out Harumph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 On 1/23/2015 at 8:49 PM, stormtracker said: Wes is a vicious SOB. Part of that Calvert County Crips. Nah, he's just become more hardened after the DT incident! NAM looks good, but yeah, hope the more important models follow suit (haha!). I was a bit worried about the usual NAM sharp precip gradient as you go north (like a couple of similar events last year), but looks like it filled in more during the later projections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 On 1/23/2015 at 8:51 PM, zwyts said: If it means even an inch less snow for me, I hope northern areas of this forum are completely shut outSharing is caring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 On 1/23/2015 at 8:50 PM, NinjaWarrior2 said: Lets go North Trend please, NAM looks ok for Northern MD. It's a Clipper though. Nah, we good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 On 1/23/2015 at 8:52 PM, DCTeacherman said: Well it is friday so its time for happy hour anyway....but seriously if we could just end up somewhere between the global guidance and the NAM that would be awesome. It's always 18:00 somewhere in the world! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 On 1/23/2015 at 8:53 PM, Always in Zugzwang said: Nah, he's just become more hardened after the DT incident! NAM looks good, but yeah, hope the more important models follow suit (haha!). I was a bit worried about the usual NAM sharp precip gradient as you go north (like a couple of similar events last year), but looks like it filled more in during the later projections. I'm more concerned that the NAM sucks and shouldn't be used for anything more than entertainment purposes at 60 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 NAM precip max seems further north than it should be .. did the same thing the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 On 1/23/2015 at 8:50 PM, zwyts said: The Tuesday/Wednesday event on its heels yup http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_084_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18¶m=sim_radar&fhr=084&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150123+18+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 On 1/23/2015 at 8:55 PM, zwyts said: I'm more concerned that the NAM sucks and shouldn't be used for anything more than entertainment purposes at 60 hours out. LMAO!! Touche, and true enough. But I do recall situations where the NAM even in it's "good range" had shown some nasty QPF gradients across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 On 1/23/2015 at 8:55 PM, zwyts said: I'm more concerned that the NAM sucks and shouldn't be used for anything more than entertainment purposes at 60 hours out. you should. It gave me 6 inches last night for tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 On 1/23/2015 at 8:56 PM, Ian said: NAM precip max seems further north than it should be .. did the same thing the other day. mid-level moisture is north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 On 1/23/2015 at 8:59 PM, Scuddz said: mid-level moisture is north. Though that's probably more of a symptom than a cause... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 On 1/23/2015 at 8:59 PM, Scuddz said: mid-level moisture is north. All the models kind of have it a bit removed to the north of the main vort area it seems.. not a huge problem, just random thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 That's the kind of run that will make my guesses for more snow Dulles to Richmond in the winter snow total thread than for BWI have a chance of coming to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 On 1/23/2015 at 8:44 PM, MN Transplant said: If only... USA_APCPI24_sfc_066.gif meh. Figures one day we'd get payback for Dec 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I want a WSWatch tomorrow morning And I hope the GFS follows along with the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 RGEM not looking too bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 GFS looking potent at 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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