DDweatherman Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Here we go. Thought we would actually have a thread here because of what is going on with the other events but the long term pattern is looking good so there will be more threats after this one to discuss in the LR thread. This is down to almost d4 on the leads. 12z GFS puts .4 QPF for some in CMD, but Euro from 0z last night delivered a good h5 vort track, cold temps (upper 20's, low 30's) as well as heavy QPF. Tune in for more in a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Here we go. Thought we would actually have a thread here because of what is going on with the other events but the long term pattern is looking good so there will be more threats after this one to discuss in the LR thread. This is down to almost d4 on the leads. 12z GFS puts .4 QPF for some in CMD, but Euro from 0z last night delivered a good h5 vort track, cold temps (upper 20's, low 30's) as well as heavy QPF. Tune in for more in a little bit. Good Luck. Even if none of these produce 6+ it's still nice to have something to track and be in the game. Tracking storms while it's snowing is the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 Good Luck. Even if none of these produce 6+ it's still nice to have something to track and be in the game. Tracking storms while it's snowing is the best. It is. The famous snow on snow on snow on etc. is great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Weak at the surface on the euro but a very nice vort pass. This one should be interesting to figure out the final solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Big changes on the 12Z Euro it looks like to me - a much quicker passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 Weak at the surface on the euro but a very nice vort pass. This one should be interesting to figure out the final solution. Yeah since were busy with the clipper and the coastal, my eyes are on the pass for now. Its a great pass this run, the rest we will iron out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 It starts sunday afternoon...I'd change the thread title to 1/25-26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 It starts sunday afternoon...I'd change the thread title to 1/25-26 Oh I hope it does...going to Canaan Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 It starts sunday afternoon...I'd change the thread title to 1/25-26 what starts? there is hardly any precip. We went from 6 inches to maybe a dusting this particular run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 what starts? there is hardly any precip. We went from 6 inches to maybe a dusting this particular run so, it lost it GFS still has some decent qpf it'll be back at 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I didn't see a single euro member with a big hit for this threat. Lots of strung out and light qpf solutions. A couple modest ones. Overall not looking like a good hit attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 GFS is not our friend. Low passes to the N and the vort pass isn't nearly as good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 GFS is not our friend. Low passes to the N and the vort pass isn't nearly as good. seasonal persistence my friend it'll trend like all the others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Looks like the new thread killed this one for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 vort looks in a good spot on the 84 hr. NAM this model link http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_084_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150122+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model it actually does and if you run a loop it is aimed to our south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Looking better on the 0z GFS vs 18z. A bit further south and more potent at h5 Still rain tho. Gotta get that thing south of us again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Even though it's a colder air mass I've yet to see a good solution that makes a lot of sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 It's a miss as shown but it's actually been trending towards a more consolidated system. It's very close to a big storm this run. A little south and this could be decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 00z GFS 8-12" from NYC north. We get . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Euro is this prolonged light snow event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Euro is this prolonged light snow event Most importantly it tracks slp through central va. South track is imperative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 06z GFS takes the potent s/w just south of us through C VA at 114 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 06z GFS takes the potent s/w just south of us through C VA at 114 crushes NYC and screws us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 crushes NYC and screws us You might want to take a long nap until your Feb 3rd HECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I think this has potential. First I believe the gfs idea of a more potent system over the euro. So what we need is the solution of the gfs with the euro track. Gfs has been north with systems in the northern stream lately from this range so I'm not down on this yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I think this has potential. First I believe the gfs idea of a more potent system over the euro. So what we need is the solution of the gfs with the euro track. Gfs has been north with systems in the northern stream lately from this range so I'm not down on this yet. I'll be surprised if the models don't shift it south like all the other vorts that have been modeled too far north at 4+ days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I think this has potential. First I believe the gfs idea of a more potent system over the euro. So what we need is the solution of the gfs with the euro track. Gfs has been north with systems in the northern stream lately from this range so I'm not down on this yet. [ian]Vort pass has been consistently good. Just have to wait for the surface to get more properly represented, i.e. shift south.[/ian] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 [ian]Vort pass has been consistently good. Just have to wait for the surface to get more properly represented, i.e. shift south.[/ian] Also, #clippertown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I have to brush up on my vort 101 I've learned from Ian and Bob for this one. #trustthevortpass ETA: Mods, can we pin this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I have to brush up on my vort 101 I've learned from Ian and Bob for this one. #trustthevortpass ETA: Mods, can we pin this? I am just a graduate from The University of Usedtobe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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