TugHillMatt Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Yay! I could get half an inch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The sfc/mid level features take a pretty favorable path for LAF, but still, it's hard to completely dismiss the thermal issues and why I'm hesitant to go above my 1-2" at this point. On the plus side, I think that's the floor with this setup with the potential to go higher. If I had just checked in and looked at models and ran through the 850temp/precip plots and low track I'd be thinking no-brainer, it's a snowstorm for CMH. But then you look at surface temps, and temps in the lower levels and we go from a no-brainer to a thread the needle situation. We need a perfectly timed thump....otherwise most likely outcome is band of heaviest snow falls north of Columbus, like Findlay to Mansfield. At least I've kept myself from getting vested in this storm. No disappointments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Precip. type issues in the last week of January? This is rough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 High altitude fishbone clouds working overhead....i have seen better before previous nw flow evens this season...regardless....a decent signal for mby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 High altitude fishbone clouds working overhead....i have seen better before previous nw flow evens this season...regardless....a decent signal for mby I like it. Non model forecasting. Looks like my 2.76 call in trouble. Still hoping for a couple inches with some lake help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 15z SREF mean is around 3" for LAF. Individual members are all over the place with a spread from about 1 to 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 15z SREF mean is around 3" for LAF. Individual members are all over the place with a spread from about 1 to 5". nam a bit south too. In fact heaviest precip is now CMH south thru Ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I like it. Non model forecasting. Looks like my 2.76 call in trouble. Still hoping for a couple inches with some lake help. haha yeah....typically the better producing nw flow systems feature crisper sets of fishbones before the storm....today's were kinda, meh....not very crispy...makes me feel not too hot about my 3.3 call as well.... oh well, we'll see one of my baseball coaches from the past is being inducted into the Illinois baseball hall of fame tonight...I am going for the ceremony, so I am hoping the delayed onset of precip continues so I don't have to worry about any icy travel problems on the way home tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Pretty awful when you get a clipper to go south and it's mainly rain (for LAF). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Pretty awful when you get a clipper to go south and it's mainly rain (for LAF). awful.gif yep... the nam came in a bit colder for us but without thump'n we aren't going to score very much. This type of set up requires you to be in heavy precip to make up for the garbage lower levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Pretty awful when you get a clipper to go south and it's mainly rain (for LAF). awful.gif Pretty awful when you get a clipper to go south and it's mainly rain (for LAF). awful.gif Ouch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Pretty awful when you get a clipper to go south and it's mainly rain (for LAF). awful.gif I'm not seeing rain as an issue other than just after onset. Our bigger problem/question mark is how quickly we can cool temps toward freezing to help with accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 447 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THOSE AREAS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM LAFAYETTE TO FRANKFORT TO NEW CASTLE... INZ021-029>031-038-040>042-049-250615- /O.COR.KIND.WW.Y.0005.150125T1800Z-150126T0500Z/ CARROLL-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-TIPTON-MADISON-DELAWARE- RANDOLPH-HENRY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAFAYETTE...FRANKFORT...KOKOMO... ANDERSON...MUNCIE 447 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW ...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT. * MAIN IMPACT: ROADS MAY BECOME SLIPPERY DUE TO SNOW. SOME BLOWING SNOW IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING AND TRAVEL MAY BECOME DIFFICULT. * ACCUMULATIONS: SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM KOKOMO TO MUNCIE AND WINCHESTER WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH. * TIMING: RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING. SNOW WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT BY MIDNIGHT SUNDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && $$ JH/CP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Looking forward to what appears to be the biggest single snow of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 ^ think there might be a shot at 6 with this one across the 24 - 28 corridor. Temps east of 31 are going to be right on the margin, but if we can stay all snow could be a good hit. Best lift and def look to be right over us and east. Definitely threading the needle with advisory vs warning totals. I'm calling a weenie 6 for mby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 NAM has us down to less than 0.1" now. GFS dried up from its great 12z run too. SREF mean cut in half from 0.31" to 0.16". All part of the trend. New call: coating-1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Looking forward to what appears to be the biggest single snow of the year. Don't look at the latest guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Precip. type issues in the last week of January? This is rough. I was shocked to see it raining earlier here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Don't look at the latest guidance Yes it's 35 in ND. I'm hoping this thing doesn't get flooded with pineapple juice. But I'm staring at bare ground here so I've got some blind faith Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Looking forward to what appears to be the biggest single snow of the year. Doesn't look like it my friend. 0z runs are pretty awful. Final call for LAF: cold rain with a T of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Doesn't look like it my friend. 0z runs are pretty awful. Final call for LAF: cold rain with a T of snow I'm riding 1-2" to the death. Gotta say, glad I didn't go higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I'm riding 1-2" to the death. Gotta say, glad I didn't go higher. lol, good luck. Don't think I've seen too many clippers that take a good track for us that result in mainly rain...in freakin' late January. Sure am glad that Jan 5-6 was good to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 2.0" looks good for ORD.Revising to a DAB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Doesn't look like it my friend. 0z runs are pretty awful. Final call for LAF: cold rain with a T of snow I was hoping we might pull it off but I guess this miserable winter continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Final call for Detroit: Trace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Still riding my 1-3" but the very low end is looking like the way to go. I used to forecast specific amounts back in the day, but the last few seasons have gone with NWS style amount ranges. Even with advancement in model forecasts the last several years forecasting exact amounts a few days out is too tricky for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I was hoping we might pull it off but I guess this miserable winter continues. Don't give up! I still think we're going to get a shot here. If it pivots as forecast it's still going to give of us extra time under the best lift. Winds will be out of the SE, there's a fresh weenie snow pack down in Central and Eastern KY. To much model riding on this forecast from the AFD's, their P&C's have been dancing with the stars over the last 24 hours. The wrap around cold air is now moving down out of MN and WS. The ULL is just now starting to crank some, there's still potential for a trowel to set up from 31 east into North Central Ohio. Yes it's thread the needle but I have one eye closed and am aiming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Don't give up! I still think we're going to get a shot here. If it pivots as forecast it's still going to give of us extra time under the best lift. Winds will be out of the SE, there's a fresh weenie snow pack down in Central and Eastern KY. To much model riding on this forecast from the AFD's, their P&C's have been dancing with the stars over the last 24 hours. The wrap around cold air is now moving down out of MN and WS. The ULL is just now starting to crank some, there's still potential for a trowel to set up from 31 east into North Central Ohio. Yes it's thread the needle but I have one eye closed and am aiming Can't buy the KY snowcover being a player here. Not like it's continuous up into our region. Besides, winds turn more E/NE throughout the day as the low is passing through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Yeah I'm grasping lol. I cant take this brown semi permafrost mud pit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Received a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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