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January 25-26th Clipper


wisconsinwx

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The sfc/mid level features take a pretty favorable path for LAF, but still, it's hard to completely dismiss the thermal issues and why I'm hesitant to go above my 1-2" at this point.  On the plus side, I think that's the floor with this setup with the potential to go higher.

 

If I had just checked in and looked at models and ran through the 850temp/precip plots and low track I'd be thinking no-brainer, it's a snowstorm for CMH.  But then you look at surface temps, and temps in the lower levels and we go from a no-brainer to a thread the needle situation.  We need a perfectly timed thump....otherwise most likely outcome is band of heaviest snow falls north of Columbus, like Findlay to Mansfield.

At least I've kept myself from getting vested in this storm.   No disappointments.  

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High altitude fishbone clouds working overhead....i have seen better before previous nw flow evens this season...regardless....a decent signal for mby

I like it. Non model forecasting. Looks like my 2.76 call in trouble. Still hoping for a couple inches with some lake help.

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I like it. Non model forecasting. Looks like my 2.76 call in trouble. Still hoping for a couple inches with some lake help.

 

haha yeah....typically the better producing nw flow systems feature crisper sets of fishbones before the storm....today's were kinda, meh....not very crispy...makes me feel not too hot about my 3.3 call as well....

 

oh well, we'll see

 

one of my baseball coaches from the past is being inducted into the Illinois baseball hall of fame tonight...I am going for the ceremony, so I am hoping the delayed onset of precip continues so I don't have to worry about any icy travel problems on the way home tonight

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN

447 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT SUNDAY

NIGHT FOR THOSE AREAS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM LAFAYETTE

TO FRANKFORT TO NEW CASTLE...

INZ021-029>031-038-040>042-049-250615-

/O.COR.KIND.WW.Y.0005.150125T1800Z-150126T0500Z/

CARROLL-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-TIPTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-

RANDOLPH-HENRY-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAFAYETTE...FRANKFORT...KOKOMO...

ANDERSON...MUNCIE

447 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT

EST SUNDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW ...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SUNDAY

TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT.

* MAIN IMPACT: ROADS MAY BECOME SLIPPERY DUE TO SNOW. SOME BLOWING

SNOW IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING AND TRAVEL MAY BECOME DIFFICULT.

* ACCUMULATIONS: SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE

FROM KOKOMO TO MUNCIE AND WINCHESTER WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO

THE SOUTH.

* TIMING: RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY

AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING. SNOW WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT BY

MIDNIGHT SUNDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW

WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW

COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE

DRIVING.

&&

$$

JH/CP

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^  think there might be a shot at 6 with this one across the 24 - 28 corridor.  Temps east of 31 are going to be right on the margin, but if we can stay all snow could be a good hit.  Best lift and def look to be right over us and east.  Definitely threading the needle with advisory vs warning totals.  I'm calling a weenie 6 for mby :weenie:   

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I'm riding 1-2" to the death.  Gotta say, glad I didn't go higher.

 

lol, good luck. 

 

Don't think I've seen too many clippers that take a good track for us that result in mainly rain...in freakin' late January. 

 

Sure am glad that Jan 5-6 was good to us. :D

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Still riding my 1-3" but the very low end is looking like the way to go.  

 

I used to forecast specific amounts back in the day, but the last few seasons have gone with NWS style amount ranges.  Even with advancement in model forecasts the last several years forecasting exact amounts a few days out is too tricky for me.

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I was hoping we might pull it off but I guess this miserable winter continues.

 

Don't give up! I still think we're going to get a shot here.  If it pivots as forecast it's still going to give of us extra time under the best lift.  Winds will be out of the SE, there's a fresh weenie snow pack down in Central and Eastern KY.  To much model riding on this forecast from the AFD's, their P&C's have been dancing with the stars over the last 24 hours.  The wrap around cold air is now moving down out of MN and WS.  The ULL is just now starting to crank some, there's still potential for a trowel to set up from 31 east into North Central Ohio.  Yes it's thread the needle but I have one eye closed and am aiming  :yikes:

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Don't give up! I still think we're going to get a shot here.  If it pivots as forecast it's still going to give of us extra time under the best lift.  Winds will be out of the SE, there's a fresh weenie snow pack down in Central and Eastern KY.  To much model riding on this forecast from the AFD's, their P&C's have been dancing with the stars over the last 24 hours.  The wrap around cold air is now moving down out of MN and WS.  The ULL is just now starting to crank some, there's still potential for a trowel to set up from 31 east into North Central Ohio.  Yes it's thread the needle but I have one eye closed and am aiming  :yikes:

 

 

Can't buy the KY snowcover being a player here.  Not like it's continuous up into our region.  Besides, winds turn more E/NE throughout the day as the low is passing through.

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