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January 25-26th Clipper


wisconsinwx

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Why i am not writing anything off is the state of the MJO/EPO/NAO etc.. They are all in a similar state to what they were in Jan 05.. Jan 05 also had a system go up the coast just a day or so prior to the clipper.

 

Thus it may boil down to strength of the clipper which again the 12z runs should know a bit more about. I say that because look at the vort energy at initialization time and you will see it was still mostly off the coast.

 

Not saying this will come back north but it is a legit candidate for such a shift.

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A very nice discussion regarding the storm for Northern IN by Amos Dodson at IWX this morning:

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)ISSUED AT 356 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015MAIN FOCUS OF LONG TERM PERIOD IS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR SUNDAYWITH FEW CONCERNS THEREAFTER. PARENT JET ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED PVANOMALY ARE NOW FULLY ONSHORE THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. LATEST 00ZNUMERICAL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE REACHING A CONSENSUS AND THOUGHSUBTLE CHANGES ARE STILL CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...CONFIDENCE IN THEFINER SCALE DETAILS IS INCREASING. AT LEAST TO THE POINT WHERE IT ISPOSSIBLE TO HAVE A MEANINGFUL DISCUSSION OF THE EVENT SPECIFICS.MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL DIG INTO THEMIDWEST SUNDAY MORNING AND SEND SURFACE REFLECTION THROUGH SOUTHERNINDIANA DURING THE AFTERNOON. SYNOPTIC SCALE DYNAMICS ARE DECENT BUTSYSTEM STARTS TO OCCLUDE FAIRLY QUICKLY. LOW LEVEL CYCLONE IS STEADYOR EVEN FILLING SLIGHTLY BY THE TIME IT ARRIVES IN OUR REGION.NEVERTHELESS...A HEALTHY MESOSCALE RESPONSE IS STILL NOTED IN THELOWER LEVELS. INCREASING 285K WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND COLD AIRFILTERING SOUTH FROM SURFACE HIGH OVER ONTARIO WILL HELP TIGHTEN THETHERMAL GRADIENT IN PLACE AND LIGHT UP A MODEST BAND OF 925-850MBFRONTOGENESIS. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS OF EPV AND THETA-E...AS WELL ASREGULAR FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ALSO SHOW REDUCED STATIC STABILITY INTHE MIDLEVELS FROM ROUGHLY 700 TO 400MB. FGEN SIGNAL IS PRETTYSHALLOW SO AM NOT SURE IT WILL BE ABLE TO FULLY CAPITALIZE ONREDUCED STABILITY ALOFT BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR MESOBANDING IS THEREAND THIS WILL BE THE KEY FACTOR TO WATCH FOR GREATER SNOWFALLTOTALS. OTHER FACTOR SUPPORTING HIGHER QPF IS AVAILABLE MOISTURE. ASPREVIOUSLY NOTED...SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OF OVER 3 G/KG EXTEND THROUGHALMOST 700MB AND PW VALUES APPROACH 0.6 INCHES. GIVEN THESEFACTORS...MODEL QPF TOTALS OF UP TO A HALF INCH ARE DEFINITELYWITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILLDETERMINE FINAL ACCUMULATIONS AND THIS REMAINS THE BIGGEST NEGATIVEFACTOR FOR THE EVENT. SEVERAL ASPECTS SUPPORT A LOWER THAN AVERAGESNOW RATIO. BULK OF THIS EVENT WILL FALL DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS ANDALTHOUGH SUN ANGLE IS STILL PRETTY LOW THIS TIME OF YEAR...IT STILLHAS AN EFFECT WHEN SURFACE TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR FREEZING AS THEYWILL THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SECONDLY...DGZ IS VERY SHALLOW ANDHIGHLY ELEVATED. UVM EXTENDS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AND WILL PRODUCE AHODGEPODGE OF DIFFERENT CRYSTAL TYPES. THE 0 TO -10C LAYER IS ALSOVERY DEEP AND WILL PROMOTE A HIGH DEGREE OF RIMING. COUPLED WITHSURFACE/GROUND TEMPS RIGHT AROUND OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING...ALL OFTHESE FACTORS SHOULD SUPPORT A WET/HEAVY SNOW WITH RATIOS PROBABLYNEAR 10:1. (AVERAGE RATIOS FOR OUR CWA ARE AROUND 15:1.)THEREFORE STILL THINK GENERALLY 3-5 INCHES WILL FALL ALONG AND SOUTHOF US-30. (2 TO 4 INCHES NORTH OF THERE AND MAYBE JUST AN INCH ORTWO IN OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES.) HIGHER QPF TOTALS IN THE FARSOUTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD LARGELY BE OFFSET BY LOWER RATIOS ANDHIGHER POTENTIAL FOR MELTING. A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY SEEENHANCED BANDING PUSH TOTALS TOWARD WARNING CRITERIA OF 6 INCHES IN12 HOURS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGHFOR THE ISSUANCE OF A WATCH. LACKLUSTER MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICSWITH A SLOWLY FILLING SYSTEM AND WARM THERMAL PROFILES RAISE TOOMANY CONCERNS. ANY 6+ INCH TOTALS SHOULD ALSO BE FAIRLY ISOLATED ANDIT IS DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN PRECISE LOCATIONS THIS FAR INADVANCE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN HOW THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN HANDLED BY THEMODELS THUS FAR. LESS IMPACTS ALSO ANTICIPATED GIVEN THAT IT IS THEWEEKEND. WILL THEREFORE FORGO ANY HEADLINE ISSUANCE AT THIS JUNCTUREAND ALLOW DAY SHIFT ONE FINAL LOOK WITH THE BENEFIT OF 12Z DATA.
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A very nice discussion regarding the storm for Northern IN by Amos Dodson at IWX this morning:

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 356 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

MAIN FOCUS OF LONG TERM PERIOD IS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR SUNDAY

WITH FEW CONCERNS THEREAFTER. PARENT JET ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED PV

ANOMALY ARE NOW FULLY ONSHORE THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. LATEST 00Z

NUMERICAL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE REACHING A CONSENSUS AND THOUGH

SUBTLE CHANGES ARE STILL CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...CONFIDENCE IN THE

FINER SCALE DETAILS IS INCREASING. AT LEAST TO THE POINT WHERE IT IS

POSSIBLE TO HAVE A MEANINGFUL DISCUSSION OF THE EVENT SPECIFICS.

MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL DIG INTO THE

MIDWEST SUNDAY MORNING AND SEND SURFACE REFLECTION THROUGH SOUTHERN

INDIANA DURING THE AFTERNOON. SYNOPTIC SCALE DYNAMICS ARE DECENT BUT

SYSTEM STARTS TO OCCLUDE FAIRLY QUICKLY. LOW LEVEL CYCLONE IS STEADY

OR EVEN FILLING SLIGHTLY BY THE TIME IT ARRIVES IN OUR REGION.

NEVERTHELESS...A HEALTHY MESOSCALE RESPONSE IS STILL NOTED IN THE

LOWER LEVELS. INCREASING 285K WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND COLD AIR

FILTERING SOUTH FROM SURFACE HIGH OVER ONTARIO WILL HELP TIGHTEN THE

THERMAL GRADIENT IN PLACE AND LIGHT UP A MODEST BAND OF 925-850MB

FRONTOGENESIS. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS OF EPV AND THETA-E...AS WELL AS

REGULAR FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ALSO SHOW REDUCED STATIC STABILITY IN

THE MIDLEVELS FROM ROUGHLY 700 TO 400MB. FGEN SIGNAL IS PRETTY

SHALLOW SO AM NOT SURE IT WILL BE ABLE TO FULLY CAPITALIZE ON

REDUCED STABILITY ALOFT BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR MESOBANDING IS THERE

AND THIS WILL BE THE KEY FACTOR TO WATCH FOR GREATER SNOWFALL

TOTALS. OTHER FACTOR SUPPORTING HIGHER QPF IS AVAILABLE MOISTURE. AS

PREVIOUSLY NOTED...SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OF OVER 3 G/KG EXTEND THROUGH

ALMOST 700MB AND PW VALUES APPROACH 0.6 INCHES. GIVEN THESE

FACTORS...MODEL QPF TOTALS OF UP TO A HALF INCH ARE DEFINITELY

WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL

DETERMINE FINAL ACCUMULATIONS AND THIS REMAINS THE BIGGEST NEGATIVE

FACTOR FOR THE EVENT. SEVERAL ASPECTS SUPPORT A LOWER THAN AVERAGE

SNOW RATIO. BULK OF THIS EVENT WILL FALL DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS AND

ALTHOUGH SUN ANGLE IS STILL PRETTY LOW THIS TIME OF YEAR...IT STILL

HAS AN EFFECT WHEN SURFACE TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR FREEZING AS THEY

WILL THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SECONDLY...DGZ IS VERY SHALLOW AND

HIGHLY ELEVATED. UVM EXTENDS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AND WILL PRODUCE A

HODGEPODGE OF DIFFERENT CRYSTAL TYPES. THE 0 TO -10C LAYER IS ALSO

VERY DEEP AND WILL PROMOTE A HIGH DEGREE OF RIMING. COUPLED WITH

SURFACE/GROUND TEMPS RIGHT AROUND OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING...ALL OF

THESE FACTORS SHOULD SUPPORT A WET/HEAVY SNOW WITH RATIOS PROBABLY

NEAR 10:1. (AVERAGE RATIOS FOR OUR CWA ARE AROUND 15:1.)

THEREFORE STILL THINK GENERALLY 3-5 INCHES WILL FALL ALONG AND SOUTH

OF US-30. (2 TO 4 INCHES NORTH OF THERE AND MAYBE JUST AN INCH OR

TWO IN OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES.) HIGHER QPF TOTALS IN THE FAR

SOUTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD LARGELY BE OFFSET BY LOWER RATIOS AND

HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR MELTING. A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY SEE

ENHANCED BANDING PUSH TOTALS TOWARD WARNING CRITERIA OF 6 INCHES IN

12 HOURS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH

FOR THE ISSUANCE OF A WATCH. LACKLUSTER MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS

WITH A SLOWLY FILLING SYSTEM AND WARM THERMAL PROFILES RAISE TOO

MANY CONCERNS. ANY 6+ INCH TOTALS SHOULD ALSO BE FAIRLY ISOLATED AND

IT IS DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN PRECISE LOCATIONS THIS FAR IN

ADVANCE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN HOW THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN HANDLED BY THE

MODELS THUS FAR. LESS IMPACTS ALSO ANTICIPATED GIVEN THAT IT IS THE

WEEKEND. WILL THEREFORE FORGO ANY HEADLINE ISSUANCE AT THIS JUNCTURE

AND ALLOW DAY SHIFT ONE FINAL LOOK WITH THE BENEFIT OF 12Z DATA.

Nice. Good event shaping up for yby

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Early guess nam trends south towards consensus guidance

Edit: correct. Time to formally punt. Good luck IN crew

LOT has it handled:

THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THIS COULD SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH.

1-3 call across the metro a nice call. I suspect the 2 inch broadbrush is the way to go.

Just a weak winter for snow lovers....it would seem.

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Yes. A consistent southward trend over the course of 72 hours. In addition, most offices noted this was a possibility. Model huggers pay a price.

 

That may be true, but it's a good thing we have keen human minds.  Those human minds should not have to bail out computer models time and again. Once in awhile, sure, but there hasn't been one event the models have done well with this year, so I'm with Michsnowfreak and Powerball.

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This system doesn't look very impressive for Iowa.  Models suggest Iowa may end up in a relative dry pocket while the storm turns the corner and wraps up to the southeast.  The GFS has very little snow falling over southeast Iowa.  Even the best-looking model only has 1-2 inches around here from a quick burst of snow first thing Sunday morning.  That's ok, though.  We got hit good by the January 5th clipper(~6") and it'll be nice to see some snowfall again.

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4km NAM continues its LAF love with QPF. Too bad the surface and lower levels are en fuego for here. Hate relying on changeover events, so I think my call is a sloppy inch...two at best. Just north and east of here look to do well.

 

attachicon.gifhires_t_precip_indy_16.png

 

 

A couple degrees colder on that run would make a big difference.  The plus is that it could rip for a time. 

 

Bigger spread in the SREF than you want to see at this range.

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The sfc/mid level features take a pretty favorable path for LAF, but still, it's hard to completely dismiss the thermal issues and why I'm hesitant to go above my 1-2" at this point.  On the plus side, I think that's the floor with this setup with the potential to go higher.

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A couple degrees colder on that run would make a big difference.  The plus is that it could rip for a time. 

 

Bigger spread in the SREF than you want to see at this range.

 

12z Euro gets us to a toasty 39˚. And not much precipitation. This one ain't happening for the LAF. :lol:

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