Brewers Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Back to around 0.2" across the cities on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Looking a little more interesting for us, sans NAM. I'd hedge north for best totals at this time but another south shift would put us in a better spot. Still thinking there could be a band of advisory criteria snows. North of here is definitely better. 12z Euro is all rain for us (34˚ cold rainer)...though there could be a little snow at the end, but we know how that usually goes. Oh well, back to ignoring the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Moved the model discussion to the banter thread...continue it there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 GGEM snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 North of here is definitely better. 12z Euro is all rain for us (34˚ cold rainer)...though there could be a little snow at the end, but we know how that usually goes. Oh well, back to ignoring the weather. i'm only using freebies but the euro looks GEMish if a bit drier, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Game on around mby all of a sudden. Totally unexpected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 i'm only using freebies but the euro looks GEMish if a bit drier, no? Yeah, track is pretty close on both. Though the 12z Euro is a little wetter (and a broader swath) for far eastern IL, IN, and OH. They're about the same for your hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Yeah, track is pretty close on both. Though the 12z Euro is a little wetter (and a broader swath) for far eastern IL, IN, and OH. They're about the same for your hood. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Could argue some pretty solid ratios around here using the 12z GFS, 850's fairly cold with mid 20's at the sfc with a deeper DGZ as the event goes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 12z GEM gem1.png Somewhat obvious....but the 12Z RGEM features a 1000 SLP pretty much over cyclone at H48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 SREF plumes jumped into much better focus...lost all but one of the low hanging outliers and amped members. Really tight cluster ~3.5" with ratios right at 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 SREF plumes jumped into much better focus...lost all but one of the low hanging outliers and amped members. Really tight cluster ~3.5" with ratios right at 10:1 yeah pretty solid, I'd still argue slightly better ratios though. And I'd guess the 18z NAM heads south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 yeah pretty solid, I'd still argue slightly better ratios though. And I'd guess the 18z NAM heads south re: ratios...maybe during the peak but we will be dealing with warm surface temps, especially at onset. I think 10:1 works fine as an average re: 18z NAM, for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 A little too much uncertainty to feel comfortable with a call here but I'm a bit more optimistic for LAF than Tim is (big shock). I think it will be more snow than rain here but surface temps could be an issue, at least for a while. I guess I'd lean 1-2" but any colder trend and we can double that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Quite a spread for LAF but the trend has been up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 2-3" seems good here. Pretty worried about getting northern-side fringed now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 LAF is locked and loaded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 SREF plumes jumped into much better focus...lost all but one of the low hanging outliers and amped members. Really tight cluster ~3.5" with ratios right at 10:1 Decent JOT cluster from 2 to 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 west/south it is with the NAM...also a bit slower probably going to be a decent weenie run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 west/south it is with the NAM...also a bit slower solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 mimilliman's revenge v2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 As usual, the NAM seems to be picking up on the better banding potential leading to some juicy QPF values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 As usual, the NAM seems to be picking up on the better banding potential leading to some juicy QPF values. it doesn't have much support but it's a textbook looking track for our area, so i guess it has that going for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 it doesn't have much support but it's a textbook looking track for our area, so i guess it has that going for it 4km NAM is even more juiced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 NAM on steroids run. 'Grats to Mimilliman, Thunder Road, IWXwx, etc etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 18z NAM always good for a laugh. Thinking 2 to 4 here over to fort Wayne. I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 18z NAM always good for a laugh. Thinking 2 to 4 here over to fort Wayne. I'll take it! Its nice to see once a 2-4" snow hits outside of lower MI that there are indeed others who do enjoy the nickel and dime snows over no snows at all. I knew you all would come out of the woodwork Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 ILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH352 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY WITH EMBEDDED WEAK VORTDROPPING THRU SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING. WEAK SFC TROF TO WORK SE THRUTHE FA TOWARD EVENING. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OF MAINLYSNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE FAR NORTH. SATURDAYS HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THEUPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH. ILN/S FA BETWEEN SYSTEMS SATNIGHT WITH WEAK SFC RIDGE WORKING ACRS THE REGION. WITH CONSIDERABLECLOUDINESS...LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHTO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH.FOCUS SHIFTS TO CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WHICH DROPS SE FROM THE UPPER MSVLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. MODEL SOLNS DIFFERON EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. GENERAL TREND OF SOLN/S ISA FURTHER SOUTH TRACK.NAM HAS TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND TAKES THE SFC WAVE THRUTHE SRN I-70 CORRIDOR SUNDAY AFTN. THE GFS 06Z RUN WAS A LTL SOUTHOF THIS TRACK AND NOW (12Z RUN) HAS SHIFTED THE SFC LOW TRACK TONEAR CVG BY 00Z MONDAY WITH IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF TRACK. MODELS ARETYPICALLY TOO FAR NORTH WITH THESE DIGGING SYSTEMS. THEREFORE...HAVEGONE WITH A BLENDED GFS/ECMWF SOLN AND WILL BRING CATEGORICAL POPSFURTHER SOUTH. HAVE ALL SNOW ACRS THE NORTH WITH A MIX...CHANGING TOSNOW ACRS THE CENTRAL AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACRS THE FAR SOUTH.IT IS EARLY WITH THIS BEING A 4TH AND 5TH PERIOD EVENT BUT AT THISTIME HAVE BUMPED UP SNOW TOTALS TO 2 TO 4 INCHES FROM I-70 ON NORTHWITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS NORTH. 18Z RUNS ARE TRENDING EVEN FURTHERSOUTH WITH STORM TRACK...SO THIS MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED FURTHER S.HAVE ADJUSTED SUNDAY/S HIGHS A LTL COLDER RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30SN TO THE LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE UPPER TEENSNORTH TO NEAR 30 SOUTH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 ILN interesting they think it will verify even further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 LOT going with 2-4" along/north of a SQI-IKK line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.