mimillman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 pass Agreed. This event seems way too marginal for us. Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Agreed. This event seems way too marginal for us. Next. Son of Alek Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Son of Alek At the end of the day, even an optimistic low track over IKK just isn't historically good for us, especially when the antecedent airmass is schwaggy. I wouldn't rule out a sloppy inch or two north of I88 but this doesn't look too interesting for metro Chicago. Moneybags through metro Detroit are a little more interesting in the 2 to 5 range but again, nothing wild. LE prospects look marginal at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 At the end of the day, even an optimistic low track over IKK just isn't historically good for us, especially when the antecedent airmass is schwaggy. I wouldn't rule out a sloppy inch or two north of I88 but this doesn't look too interesting for metro Chicago. Moneybags through metro Detroit are a little more interesting in the 2 to 5 range but again, nothing wild. LE prospects look marginal at best. This is never a beneficial 850 low track for us: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Son of Alek lol Temps do seem marginal around there as it stands now. Could use a southward/colder shift. If you can get that plus added lake precip, could turn into a halfway decent event for Chicago...but big if. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 This is never a beneficial 850 low track for us: 850low.gif Euro is farther south with it, so you got that going for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Euro is farther south with it, so you got that going for you. can't wait to bust out the wagons south gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Setting up to be another Euro vs others showdown. Euro is holding firm being the only western outlier. Which models cave first? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 can't wait to bust out the wagons south gif Quad cities always comes through: FEELING IS A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK PERHAPS CLOSER TO ECMWF OR BLENDED WITH GFS REASONABLE. AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE MENTIONED THE ORIENTATION OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF 150+ KT JET WITH COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH FAVORS MORE DIGGING OF SYSTEM WHICH FITS CONCEPTUALLY WITH SYSTEM ENTERING LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS WOULD SUPPORT MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WHICH IS ALSO HINTED BY GFS ENSEMBLE WITH ITS LARGEST STANDARD DEVIATION IN 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST IL SUNDAY 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Euro is farther south with it, so you got that going for you. The 18z GFS also went south and has a more healthy mid-level wave but still not Euro south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 This is looking like one of those setups where relying on the 850 mb 0C line is really not a good idea. Image on the left is 18z GFS 850 mb temps valid 18z Sun. Seems pretty good...heck, even below 0C here. Then there's the 2m temp image on the right, also valid 18z Sun. Pretty big displacement between the 850 mb 0C line and the 2m 0C line. Of course, good rates with temps around/slightly above freezing could mitigate the issue to some extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Besides the 2005 Super Clipper, another good analog that hasn't been mentioned is the January 15, 2004 Clipper... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Besides the 2005 Super Clipper, another good analog that hasn't been mentioned is the January 15, 2004 Clipper... I believe that one was #1 on CIPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Besides the 2005 Super Clipper, another good analog that hasn't been mentioned is the January 15, 2004 Clipper... I remember that one very well, Mount Pleasant got crushed with that event. Here is the snow map from GRR for that event: And DTX's Snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I remember that one very well, Mount Pleasant got crushed with that event. Here is the snow map from GRR for that event: And DTX's Snow map I remember that one, I only got 8" being 15 miles NE of mount pleasant but was still very happy with the total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxhstn74 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Parade of Clippers Only Systems Bringing Snow This Slow Season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Parade of Clippers Only Systems Bringing Snow This Slow Season It is indeed the winter of the clippers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The biggest differences i could find with Jan 04 vs Jan 05 was with the AO ( Severely negative in 04 ) and the epo which was switching to positive in 04 and going negative in 05. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 0z GFS continues the south trend toward the Euro. .30" liquid gets into the nrn half of Kane and most of DuPage/Cook county. Nice hit just north of here on into northern IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 00z GFS is actually south of the 12z EURO... 2-4" looks like a good bet here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 0.4" liquid line is close here on the GFS. Looks like the 0z 12km NAM was juiced up and south too. Baby steps. All trending toward the King. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 00z GFS is actually south of the 12z EURO... 2-4" looks like a good bet here... If that happens it would be the 5th event of the winter that dropped between 2-4" for a majority of metro-Detroit. You would not be a happy camper lol. Heres to 3-6" (Although, an amount of 3-4" technically does fall into either range lol.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 If that happens it would be the 5th event of the winter that dropped between 2-4" for a majority of metro-Detroit. You would not be a happy camper lol. Heres to 3-6" Yep. I'll be officially over this winter and hoping it ends early, especially with no relief as far as big storm potential in sight. These nuisance snows that just get in the way of my daily routine without actually being anything to write home about are doing nothing for me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 GFS is DAB for QC. Pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Yep. I'll be officially over this winter and hoping it ends early, especially with no relief as far as big storm potential in sight. These nuisance snows that just get in the way of my daily routine without actually being anything to write home about are doing nothing for me... Well obviously I enjoy them and will take every one Mother Nature dishes out, but for someone like you I can understand. There have already been numerous brutal commutes this month without a big storm to show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Well obviously I enjoy them and will take every one Mother Nature dishes out, but for someone like you I can understand. There have already been numerous brutal commutes this month without a big storm to show. And it wouldn't be as bad if they weren't happening so frequently or if bigger snowstorms were mixed in (I.E. 2007-2008). But yeah, neither is the case as my user title is clearly right on the money. It's like playing Plinko with the chips only landing in the $500 and $1000 slot. While not as bad as every chip landing in the $0, it just doesn't compare to the excitement you feel when at least one of those chips land in the $10,000 slot. All of that said, the system is still 72 hours and the east coast storm that will dictate its evolution hasn't even developed yet. So potential is still there or something nice despite tonight's runs, granted it's hard to expect anything more than what we've been seeing so far with these clippers as the trend can't be denied. If once we're in 24-36 hours the picture hasn't improved, I will be lighting up the Complaint thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Higher resolution of the total moisture for the Clipper - GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 So the euro goes full circle and is back to where it was at 00z last night and thus further south again? lol Seems to be a theme with the 12z runs one way and 00z another.. Question is which wins out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Best run yet of the GFS with some chi metro pivot point action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Best run yet of the GFS with some chi metro pivot point action. Wow. Early start. Seems there has been an uptick in the possibilities for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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