Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

January 25-26th Clipper


wisconsinwx

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 310
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I think this clipper will be going to the south of me. But, today's clipper was suppose to also. We were told we'd get 0.2" and ended up with 2.5". Still, I'm getting tired of "clippers" and want a nice storm coming up from the southwest. I can't remember getting any of those this year. At least none in the form of snow here, but rather rain.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There are some striking similarities at 500mb between the GFS prog for this clipper and the "super clipper"...including the orientation of the 528dm line, the depth/tilt of the shortwave, the ridging out west, the cut off over the southwest, and the PV east of Hudson Bay is even in a very similar spot albeit a bit deeper in this case. Differences are a slightly broader shortwave progged for the upcoming event and somewhat weaker vorticity...the temp gradient the system will be moving across may also be a bit weaker than the super clipper event. However, I'd say the intensity of the shortwave for this upcoming clipper is pretty abnormal for a clipper, possibly helped by a potential phase between two vort maxes west of the Lakes on Sunday. I could see how someone squeezes out marginal warning criteria snow out of this in the subforum.

 

post-525-0-89881200-1421912585_thumb.gif

 

post-525-0-18104900-1421912597_thumb.gif

 

The GFS has had some good runs thrown in off and on for this clipper, including the most recent 0z run. The Euro has generally shown a couple to a few inches from northern IL east across IN/OH, especially north of I-70, while the Canadian is farther north. Given the decently high-amplitude flow on the east side of the very strong west coast ridge and decent confluence over Nova Scotia, and the location of the PV, I'd favor a track somewhere close to the GFS and Euro. Clippers are the one thing I'd expect the GFS to handle better than the Euro, or at least perform comparably to.

 

post-525-0-70550000-1421912850_thumb.png

 

So, this could be interesting for a few people I think. We'll see if the models hold with a pretty robust shortwave and see what they end up doing with QPF as we get closer. My one concern is decent confluence over Nova Scotia that may limit how sharp the shortwave will be, and ultimately may make it harder to get warning snows somewhere.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

at least not right away....

 

looks good for YBY up through moneyman country

 

You're right about the qualifier, but in general looking at the Ensembles the next couple weeks look to be seasonably cold at worst, no clear visits from the PV or anything at this point (yet still cool enough to likely maintain a snowpack if this clipper delivers).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There are some striking similarities at 500mb between the GFS prog for this clipper and the "super clipper"...including the orientation of the 528dm line, the depth/tilt of the shortwave, the ridging out west, the cut off over the southwest, and the PV east of Hudson Bay is even in a very similar spot albeit a bit deeper in this case. Differences are a slightly broader shortwave progged for the upcoming event and somewhat weaker vorticity...the temp gradient the system will be moving across may also be a bit weaker than the super clipper event. However, I'd say the intensity of the shortwave for this upcoming clipper is pretty abnormal for a clipper, possibly helped by a potential phase between two vort maxes west of the Lakes on Sunday. I could see how someone squeezes out marginal warning criteria snow out of this in the subforum.

 

attachicon.gifGFS 500.gif

 

attachicon.gifsuper clipper.gif

 

The GFS has had some good runs thrown in off and on for this clipper, including the most recent 0z run. The Euro has generally shown a couple to a few inches from northern IL east across IN/OH, especially north of I-70, while the Canadian is farther north. Given the decently high-amplitude flow on the east side of the very strong west coast ridge and decent confluence over Nova Scotia, and the location of the PV, I'd favor a track somewhere close to the GFS and Euro. Clippers are the one thing I'd expect the GFS to handle better than the Euro, or at least perform comparably to.

 

attachicon.gifeps 500.png

 

So, this could be interesting for a few people I think. We'll see if the models hold with a pretty robust shortwave and see what they end up doing with QPF as we get closer. My one concern is decent confluence over Nova Scotia that may limit how sharp the shortwave will be, and ultimately may make it harder to get warning snows somewhere.

 

 

heh, that's pretty interesting in terms of similarities, though that event has pretty much become the gold standard in terms of clippers so not expecting a repeat.

 

Mentioned it yesterday but will have to watch for some lake enhanced/lake effect potential.  The 2005 event was prolific in that regard (2 feet of snow in NW IN with a majority of it being lake effect).  Thermodynamics aren't nearly as good this time so a much more modest outcome preferred.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Seems like there are some positive trends for Detroit-Toledo-Cleveland area. Looks like Toledo/Cleveland could be at 28-32 degrees for this storm. Hopefully on the lower side. There shouldn't be any freezing rain issues

This is something no one wants to discuss or think about, but if this system trends any deeper, while no freezing preciptation concerns, we may have to consider the possibility of rain mixing in on the southern and eastern edge of the better snows. Boundary layer temps may get marginal for a time...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

heh, that's pretty interesting in terms of similarities, though that event has pretty much become the gold standard in terms of clippers so not expecting a repeat.

 

Mentioned it yesterday but will have to watch for some lake enhanced/lake effect potential.  The 2005 event was prolific in that regard (2 feet of snow in NW IN with a majority of it being lake effect).  Thermodynamics aren't nearly as good this time so a much more modest outcome preferred.

Yeah, I don't see a repeat due to an ever so slightly weaker shortwave, a slightly broader trough and a weaker baroclinic zone...although, I could see 6"+ somewhere, possibly across southern lower MI into extreme northern Ohio. The GFS and Euro really only get 850mb temps down to -10C or so right behind the clipper, so that argues against heavy lake enhancement, although maybe a couple of inches could be added in favored areas.

 

As has been mentioned, it won't exactly be cold for this one, I could see mixing pretty close to Cleveland, although I highly doubt Detroit sees a mix unless this trends a good bit farther north.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...