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Jan 23-24 Winter Storm Potential


Ollie Williams

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Whattayouknow, another Roanoker. Nice to see more people from the area on here. I do agree with you that the mesoscale models have been trending colder. I bet someone in the general vicinity will get a nice surprise from this. I believe this storm has a greater chance of over performing rather than under performing, specifically for our area.

Thanks Disc, it would be cool if some unexpected dynamics cold erase that warm air aloft! Pingers are still better than ZR so we will hope for at least that!

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Phil, if you wouldn't mind, would you explain what the TOA Brightness Temperature graphic from your page displays?  What is its significance?

 

TOA = Top of Atmosphere.... basically the images are a proxy for simulated IR satellite imagery. Essentially this is the outgoing longwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere I used the Stefan-Boltzmann law to convert it to a representative temperature. Hope that makes sense!

 

You can just use it as a comparison to what IR would be showing at that time. 

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/lb13_img/hrrr/hrrr_ncep_ir_flt.php

 

hrrr_ncep_ir_KAVL_1.png

 

Actual IR Satellite Imagery. 

 

avn-l.jpg

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Temps will likely shoot up when the clouds roll in and the air starts mixing.

That will likely be the case, but the temperature has been dropping pretty fast in the past couple of hours and are now well below the forecast lows. Just since my last post less than an hour ago my temperature has dropped another two degrees. Now down to 29.6 with the dew point still at 23. I noticed on Wunderground there are several locations in the NW NC mountains in the mid 20's already. 

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TOA = Top of Atmosphere.... basically the images are a proxy for simulated IR satellite imagery. Essentially this is the outgoing longwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere I used the Stefan-Boltzmann law to convert it to a representative temperature. Hope that makes sense!

 

You can just use it as a comparison to what IR would be showing at that time.

 

Thanks, Phil!  I appreciate the explanation.

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It's looking more like .50 at best, if that much. Gulf coast convection is really cutting our totals down and radar shows another 3-4 hours of light rain at best. The drier gfs runs earlier in the week were right.

Yeah, this is quite the dud! Let's get the underperformes out of the way for next weekend!
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Saw a report on twitter of a light wintry mix in northern Durham, NC.

Here in Mount Airy were setting at 34 . We are having sleet .County schools let out at 10:30. So close to being good weather . Since it been mild here this week it not really amounting to anything.

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Here in Mount Airy were setting at 34 . We are having sleet .County schools let out at 10:30. So close to being good weather . Since it been mild here this week it not really amounting to anything.

It started out as light snow around 9 and then turned to sleet.  The sidewalk and porch are still covered with sleet, but looks like mostly rain now. 

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It's looking more like .50 at best, if that much. Gulf coast convection is really cutting our totals down and radar shows another 3-4 hours of light rain at best. The drier gfs runs earlier in the week were right.

Oh well, I guess I busted that forecast. We are approaching 1 inch now and it's still raining 12 hours later.

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