WxBlue Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Can we close this ridiculous thread now? Wasn't ridiculous when someone started it, but yes please. What a flippin' disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pack83 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Looks like 6z nam wants to bring a few flakes thru with ull sat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 18z NAM looks totally different at hour 6 compared to hour 12 of 12z: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=012ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_012_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150122+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=006ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_006_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150122+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Don't think it will help us any but still interesting Edit: Everything looks the same by 24/30 --model error--- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Alchemist Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Almost 12 hours between post, boy this went to crap quickly. Still think some in WNC might see some ZR with this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 My updated forecast!!! FRIDAY...SNOW LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN AND SLEET IN THEAFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION. MUCH COOLER.NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE MID 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT..FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATUREIN THE MID 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATIONNEAR 100 PERCENT..SATURDAY...CLOUDY WITH RAIN LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN PARTLYSUNNY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THELOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. I like the Freezing rain and mid 30s the best! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Wtf?? https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_01_2015/post-96-0-17841700-1421964920.png There's no way in hell Roanoke is getting 4-8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Wtf?? https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_01_2015/post-96-0-17841700-1421964920.png There's no way in hell Roanoke is getting 4-8. Who put that map out? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Who put that map out? lolFrosty, you know that the crazy part is is that Ellington from the Mid Atlantic forum, who I consider a very respected red tagger posted this. Idk how in the world he possibly thought this would come to fruition. Maybe if 850's cooperated and it was in the 20's then maybe I could see but no model is really showing this other than the Euro from a couple days ago when James posted on here the mean average for ROA was 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Who put that map out? lol Ellinwood from the Mid-Atlantic forum. I generally find his maps to be fairly accurate, although I think it might be a bit too high IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 It could be pretty close for MBY, I'm on the boarder of 1-2 to mix... Which mix is possible 1-2 no way... (I wish) You should at least see some snow flying maybe get a couple inches! You're in a pretty good spot, this could have been a good one if we was just a touch colder 3 or 4 degrees would make a world of difference.. Good luck up there anyway!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Ellinwood from the Mid-Atlantic forum. I generally find his maps to be fairly accurate, although I think it might be a bit too high IMBY. Me too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Ok lol maybe I need to check myself before I go out and about posting on Ellinwood, who I should have stated I have an immense amount of respect, hell of a meteorologist. Saying that, looking at the Oz Nam, the 850s hover over souuthwest VA pretty much the entire time the moisture is over us. The Nam is very juicy as well. *MAYBE if you follow the Nam's projected output to the tee, Ellinwood may not be so crazy after all going out with numbers like that. Anyone concur? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Ok lol maybe I need to check myself before I go out and about posting on Ellinwood, who I should have stated I have an immense amount of respect, hell of a meteorologist. Saying that, looking at the Oz Nam, the 850s hover over souuthwest VA pretty much the entire time the moisture is over us. The Nam is very juicy as well. *MAYBE if you follow the Nam's projected output to the tee, Ellinwood may not be so crazy after all going out with numbers like that. Anyone concur? Soundings are very sleety. Lots of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Soundings are very sleety. Lots of it. The way this year has been I would take mounds and mounds of sleet. Anything to cure the thirst for some winter weather. Do you actually see the NAM coming to fruition? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The way this year has been I would take mounds and mounds of sleet. Anything to cure the thirst for some winter weather. Do you actually see the NAM coming to fruition? Not sure if I trust it 100% because it is the NAM, but it has been trending a bit colder the past couple runs. 18z NAM was colder than 12z and 0z was colder than 18z. We'll see. Very borderline here so a few miles/elevation could make the biggest difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Short and sweet and to the point Rain, snow, Sleet and Freezing Rain will fall across the region the next few days. There are some VERY interesting **TRENDS/SIGNS** showing in the models. My thoughts on those in the latest weather video. https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Not sure if I trust it 100% because it is the NAM, but it has been trending a bit colder the past couple runs. 18z NAM was colder than 12z and 0z was colder than 18z. We'll see. Very borderline here so a few miles/elevation could make the biggest difference. Nam output is 1-1.25 of liquid equivalent so if we were to have it come down hard after dark we have a shot. If the GFS comes in colder here in about an hour, I may get a little excited. We have the WWA in place and usually when Blacksburg downplays it we get thumped so lets pray brother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 With the impending storm... I've updated the HRRR grids to center them over Asheville, NC. I've also updated some of the code on my page to make it easier to quickly shift the floater grid on the fly... let me know if there appear to be any slowdowns with the site. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/hrrr.php#flt (click on the .gif below for a full 15-h loop of the visible variables) ----- The HRRR seems to be rather bullish in expecting wet snow to near the valley floors. A nice deep isothermal layer with only a small boundary layer that won't be deep enough to allow for full melting. (click image to load a 15-h loop).... note that as the sounding saturates things quickly go below freezing. As long at the rates are there things should switch over at the airport according to the latest HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 With the impending storm... I've updated the HRRR grids to center them over Asheville, NC. I've also updated some of the code on my page to make it easier to quickly shift the floater grid on the fly... let me know if there appear to be any slowdowns with the site. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/hrrr.php#flt (click on the .gif below for a full 15-h loop of the visible variables) ----- The HRRR seems to be rather bullish in expecting wet snow to near the valley floors. A nice deep isothermal layer with only a small boundary layer that won't be deep enough to allow for full melting. (click image to load a 15-h loop).... note that as the sounding saturates things quickly go below freezing. As long at the rates are there things should switch over at the airport according to the latest HRRR. Thanks for posting this and providing your insight phil! I also think we will see some wet snow here in the valley tomorrow morning. Temp at my house is 38. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 hires nam showing a quick changeover to snow over northern nc @hr 42 as the precip pulls out. pretty close to wake cty. may be something to watch saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Gfs at 12 looks nice with the wedge all the way down the NC mountains with precip moving in. Gfs also a little juicier thus far with the precip in the south moving northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Can't wait for my 2 inches of rain and 36 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Gfs at 24 hrs is def colder for sw va extending up the 81 corridor. Has a pocket of 0c 850s and the moisture is more significant on this run. Could get interesting for the guys along 81. It may be trying to compensate for the lift that we usually get off the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 hires nam showing a quick changeover to snow over northern nc @hr 42 as the precip pulls out. pretty close to wake cty. may be something to watch saturday. Looks like 850s are <0C with it. However, surface temps are probably an issue (showing at 35), and it wouldn't be shocking of there's some warm layers in there. Don't really see anything but rain for us lowlanders. The GFS is significantly warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Phil, if you wouldn't mind, would you explain what the TOA Brightness Temperature graphic from your page displays? What is its significance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nomanslandva Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 First post…been lurking for a long time, so thanks to everyone out there who contributes to this forum! Models have seemed to trend slightly cooler the last couple of runs and HiRes NAM shows more pockets of -0 at 850 than earlier today for the mountains and wedge areas of VA and NC so I guess there is still a little hope. Latest ROA soundings show -0 up to 850 MB for most of the event but +0 between 850 and 725 so I guess we are looking at sleet. Also, final wave or ULL seems to offer some hope for a little snow Sat on the for west TN,NW NC, and SW VA too so still hoping! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Also, final wave or ULL seems to offer some hope for a little snow Sat on the for west TN,NW NC, and SW VA too so still hoping! Welcome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 First post…been lurking for a long time, so thanks to everyone out there who contributes to this forum! Models have seemed to trend slightly cooler the last couple of runs and HiRes NAM shows more pockets of -0 at 850 than earlier today for the mountains and wedge areas of VA and NC so I guess there is still a little hope. Latest ROA soundings show -0 up to 850 MB for most of the event but +0 between 850 and 725 so I guess we are looking at sleet. Also, final wave or ULL seems to offer some hope for a little snow Sat on the for west TN,NW NC, and SW VA too so still hoping! Whattayouknow, another Roanoker. Nice to see more people from the area on here. I do agree with you that the mesoscale models have been trending colder. I bet someone in the general vicinity will get a nice surprise from this. I believe this storm has a greater chance of over performing rather than under performing, specifically for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Sleet being reported in Georgia. Is this a good sign for nc as sleet was not expected in Georgia?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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