Buddy1987 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Nam has a closed contour at 18. Surface reflection has the precip maxima in Texas a little further south. Hopefully an east trend will occur tonight towards our longitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Nam at 30 has the low in the gulf about 3mb deeper, but pretty much in the same spot. The 5h is all shifted a tad westward on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Nam looks like it has more of a neutral tilt at 36 and has the low more southeast comparing to 18z where it was over the eastern tip of LA and now has it in the Gulf south of the western tip of the FL panhandle. Dont know if this will help in subsequent runs. We shall see. Again it is the Nam, so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Pretty warm. Maybe a tad cooler than 18z, but that's not saying much. Snow to start for the mountains, then rain, rain, rain. EDIT: Sorry about the incorrect temperature report before... was looking at dew points instead of 2m temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Ugh 850s are atrocious. Low literally right off the coast of MYR at 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Complete furnace on the nam! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Ugh 850s are atrocious. Low literally right off the coast of MYR at 45. Still looks like it's still over the GOM by then. Temps don't look colder, in fact it looks to erode the cold faster. This is a cold rain with pockets of a little ice and snow for the higher elevations. It's looked this way for several runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Still looks like it's still over the GOM by then. Temps don't look colder, in fact it looks to erode the cold faster. This is a cold rain with pockets of a little ice and snow for the higher elevations. It's looked this way for several runs now. Has the Nam been significantly warmer compared to the other model output? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Still looks like it's still over the GOM by then. Temps don't look colder, in fact it looks to erode the cold faster. This is a cold rain with pockets of a little ice and snow for the higher elevations. It's looked this way for several runs now. exactly..This really shouldn't surprise anyone. Ever since this mornings 6z run..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Nam is a lot wetter, not that it really matters, but seems more realistic on the northwest side of the storm now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I should say that over this entire hour, im sure I was pretty much wasting my time. Hell, the Nam was horrendous if im not mistaken for the forecast in Philly with that clipper today, so putting stock into the Nam is like putting stock back into Enron lol (ok maybe that was corny but just sayin...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I should say that over this entire hour, im sure I was pretty much wasting my time. Hell, the Nam was horrendous if im not mistaken for the forecast in Philly with that clipper today, so putting stock into the Nam is like putting stock back into Enron lol (ok maybe that was corny but just sayin...)Hope you're right. That being said, usually the nam is the one that overdoes the cold... So to see it being a blowtorch is troubling. I want to see the euro, which has been the coldest for the mountains, see if it holds serve one more time before I write this off. Real shame about the mountains, this is literally the perfect time period to chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Id wait til 12z tomorrow. Lol But im just an optimist, that's how we roll... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Hope you're right. That being said, usually the nam is the one that overdoes the cold... So to see it being a blowtorch is troubling. I want to see the euro, which has been the coldest for the mountains, see if it holds serve one more time before I write this off. Real shame about the mountains, this is literally the perfect time period to chase. Yeah my mind is blown how this doesn't workout for the mtns...you can't get much better of a track for us up here and to get a rainstorm is unreal. Don't know what to think right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Yeah my mind is blown how this doesn't workout for the mtns...you can't get much better of a track for us up here and to get a rainstorm is unreal. Don't know what to think right nowwe lack a cold air feed and the air mass in front of the storm is not very cold. If we had a colder air mass in place before hand then your area would come out alot better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 The 12z EPS mean "snowfall" is about the same as last night's run, give or take. KCLT: 0.4" - Charlotte KHNZ: 0.4" - Hendersonville KAKH: 0.8" - Gastonia KGSO: 1.6" - Greensboro KGSP: 2.2" - Greenville-Spartanburg KINT: 2.6" - Winston-Salem KHKY: 4.0" - Hickory KMWK: 4.1" - Mt. Airy KUKF: 4.5" - Wilkesboro KTNB: 5.8" - Boone KAVL: 6.0" - Asheville Usual huge disclaimers, yadadada... just FWIW... My first thought with this, was that KAVL is practically in Hendersonville so how those numbers were that far apart for the 2, was very perplexing. Then after I looked it up, I realized that KHNZ is the town of Henderson, down east of Raleigh, not Hendersonville in WNC.Either way, I'm taking all off this with a grain of salt. Many grains of salt, actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Wedge sig and high still trying to hang on at 18z on Fri, small chance still for NNC at onset? Timing couldn't be worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 My first thought with this, was that KAVL is practically in Hendersonville so how those numbers were that far apart for the 2, was very perplexing. Then after I looked it up, I realized that KHNZ is the town of Henderson, down east of Raleigh, not Hendersonville in WNC. Either way, I'm taking all off this with a grain of salt. Many grains of salt, actually. As you should. And, oops, yeah, that was Henderson, LOL... The 00z GFS looks terrible, even for the mountains for the most part. Think the goose might be cooked with this one. We'll see if the Euro caves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I'm holding on to my towel until 12z tomorrow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Well, at least we don't have to worry about this thing only skipping us... Gfs slides it offshore, and only cape cod gets a true beating, kinda like that "superbomb" last year. Chances are this will trend away from the euro's amped up solution and towards the weaker east gfs solution. Starting to wonder if the GFS gets decried so often because it's truly a bad model or because it is usually less fun than the euro and it's not what people want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 What a model WAR...WOW the GFS and EURO still mounds apart. Who wins this battle? my GUESS says the EURO does. What a forecast nightmare for everyone, especially the mid-atl..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ollie Williams Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 Canadian still keeping a little hope alive for some ... @ 48 @ 54 @ 60 @ 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ollie Williams Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 GEFS What a beautiful track! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ollie Williams Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 Check out the 12z JMA ... WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 EURO is gonna have the finger on SAT...at 12z right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 EURO is gonna have the finger on SAT...at 12z right now. What an absolute atrocity and waste of time. This winter blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Euro barely gives DC any love either.. warm and disorganized looking system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Even the clown sucks. DC gets trace amounts. Asheville gets practically nothing. Boone gets 3.3"... and that's overdone. Looks like the "King" has flopped again and the GFS/NAM reigns supreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Can we close this ridiculous thread now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ollie Williams Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 What an absolute atrocity and waste of time. This winter blows. Euro barely gives DC any love either.. warm and disorganized looking system So the euro sucked I'm assuming And I agree Buddy, This winter does blow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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