Buddy1987 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 51 the moisture axis is definitively more northwest. 850s about the same however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 NAM sucks. 850s much warmer at 63. That track irks me so bad because it is perfect for this time of year off the coast of MYR and we get this. *well I say that at 63 but at 66 and 69 the 850s come crashing and there's still some pretty decent precip in the area. Idk I guess we'll see what the rest of the model suite shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Looks like it should start as snow, if you believe the NAM, across much of the piedmont. It isnt much but it's more than we've seen all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Btw, the NAM has some really good CAD siggy on there. Might really help some for Friday *at least initially* the MTNS should do really good here. PLUS by Friday night its really cooling NC at 2m by 00z FRI. Going to be interesting to see how this plays out. 1030mb high initially. Could this produce? TN has some snow by friday night over TN and early SAt am..For yall in NC, outside the mtns, the 850's look AWFUL!!, but the 2m temps are at or under 35 degrees for most of event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 12Z NAM is rain for everyone except the mountains (as currently progged). I seriously doubt the mountains will see 8-12 hours of freezing rain though. Most likely to be start as snow through 7am, transition to rain most of the day, then perhaps back to a wintry mix after dark. NAM is off its rocker with the ZR output (which almost never verifies in storms with these types of tracks - there's just nothing to lock in the cold air). The low is also not as wound up off the coast as GFS or Euro had (1002 mb vs. 986 mb on Euro). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Btw, the NAM has some really good CAD siggy on there. Might really help some for Friday *at least initially* the MTNS should do really good here. PLUS by Friday night its really cooling NC at 2m by 00z FRI. Going to be interesting to see how this plays out. 1030mb high initially. Could this produce? TN has some snow by friday night over TN and early SAt am..For yall in NC, outside the mtns, the 850's look AWFUL!!, but the 2m temps are at or under 35 degrees for most of event. 850's suck for the mtns. Nam is warmer this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 NAM backed off the accumulations a bit over TN, which doesnt surprise me. However, got to admit a nice change from atleast the last few days, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 850's suck for the mtns. Nam is warmer this run. I agree, its warmer for them for sure. outside of the MTNS, nobody should really expect much snow, or do yall? I would say its not going to pretty if anyone is. YES its colder at 2m, but thats it, and its too warm for ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Looking at the model, I really do like the 7AM-10AM period on Friday to see some -SN across much of the piedmont. Almost everyone thats been blanked this year should see something, IF the NAM is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Btw, the NAM has some really good CAD siggy on there. Might really help some for Friday *at least initially* the MTNS should do really good here. PLUS by Friday night its really cooling NC at 2m by 00z FRI. Going to be interesting to see how this plays out. 1030mb high initially. Could this produce? TN has some snow by friday night over TN and early SAt am..For yall in NC, outside the mtns, the 850's look AWFUL!!, but the 2m temps are at or under 35 degrees for most of event. I would think it's possible for some(outside mts) to see a snow/sleet mixture to start off. Dew points are in the 20s across north NC as the precip moves in (as you said some CAD). Surface temps in the mid/upper 30s. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=01&model_dd=21&model_init_hh=12&fhour=51¶meter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I agree, its warmer for them for sure. outside of the MTNS, nobody should really expect much snow, or do yall? I would say its not going to pretty if anyone is. YES its colder at 2m, but thats it, and its too warm for ZR.Idk I honestly am hoping that being a little further north I can squeak out an inch or two Fri night and Sat morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I would think it's possible for some(outside mts) to see a snow/sleet mixture to start off. Dew points are in the 20s across north NC as the precip moves in (as you said some CAD). Surface temps in the mid/upper 30s. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=01&model_dd=21&model_init_hh=12&fhour=51¶meter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Definitely agree. We have a little bit of evaporation that should occur that means a few hours of snow or sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 12Z NAM is rain for everyone except the mountains (as currently progged). I seriously doubt the mountains will see 8-12 hours of freezing rain though. Most likely to be start as snow through 7am, transition to rain most of the day, then perhaps back to a wintry mix after dark. NAM is off its rocker with the ZR output (which almost never verifies in storms with these types of tracks - there's just nothing to lock in the cold air). The low is also not as wound up off the coast as GFS or Euro had (1002 mb vs. 986 mb on Euro). I've never seen that happen in my lifetime and don't see any reason to believe it would this time....I seriously can't believe we are putting any weight on the NAM this far out. It was God awful with the icing event last week all the way up until now cast time. Worst case scenario imo is snow then zr but certainly not snow to rain. That just doesn't ever happen up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The hi-res nam is picking up on the cooler 850's for the mountains at hr 60. I'm interested to see what the 18z run shows later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I do not think weight is being put on the NAM. I assume most are just stating what is shown on the 12Z run. I've never seen that happen in my lifetime and don't see any reason to believe it would this time....I seriously can't believe we are putting any weight on the NAM this far out. It was God awful with the icing event last week all the way up until now cast time. Worst case scenario imo is snow then zr but certainly not snow to rain. That just doesn't ever happen up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Btw, the NAM has some really good CAD siggy on there. Might really help some for Friday *at least initially* the MTNS should do really good here. PLUS by Friday night its really cooling NC at 2m by 00z FRI. Going to be interesting to see how this plays out. 1030mb high initially. Could this produce? TN has some snow by friday night over TN and early SAt am..For yall in NC, outside the mtns, the 850's look AWFUL!!, but the 2m temps are at or under 35 degrees for most of event. Was just about to bring up the CAD on NAM Chris. I don't think it flies out that fast if the NAM is correct with the strength. Good thing to remember as well is that the NAM is usually out of it's range until about 48 hours from the storm. I'll be curious to see if the GFS has any changes WRT cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Definitely agree. We have a little bit of evaporation that should occur that means a few hours of snow or sleet. I will clarify I guess...lol sorry! I could see some there at the beginning, yes. I actually could see some in and around GSP if qpf moves in quickly friday am and its as cold as modeled. **HUGE IF*** will it stick, no, but some flakes flying...sure it possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Was just about to bring up the CAD on NAM Chris. I don't think it flies out that fast if the NAM is correct with the strength. Good thing to remember as well is that the NAM is usually out of it's range until about 48 hours from the storm. I'll be curious to see if the GFS has any changes WRT cooling. I don't either, but it probably means just 35 and a cold ass rain...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Looks like the GFS agrees with the NAM on the snow potential on the front end for CLT. Just a couple of hours but again, it's better than what we've seen all year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 NAM 4-km usually do decent with mountains and it's off to a good start with some snow on clown map by Friday afternoon. Also, Brad just posted a video but I was hoping someone on here would tell me what he's saying since I'm deaf I would rather meteorologists type up a blog, but I can understand why it's easier to do a vlob... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 NAM 4-km usually do decent with mountains and it's off to a good start with some snow on clown map by Friday afternoon. Also, Brad just posted a video but I was hoping someone on here would tell me what he's saying since I'm deaf I would rather meteorologists type up a blog, but I can understand why it's easier to do a vlob... He sees the possibility for a good amount of snow in the mtns but if cautious due to the temps. He seems to be putting a lot of weight into the SREF plumes which the mean is only 2" in Boone. Says there is still a lot of uncertainty though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 12z GFS is meh with 850mb temps. Got as warm as 5C over Asheville during event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Here's the last frame of the RGEM. Looks decent. I think the new GGEM is too far inland from what I've read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Yes, Pack, the 12z GGEM is an I-95 runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Euro looks the same so far...only out to 60 looks a little quicker too. 850's are really close.. Edit: "IF" heavier qpf was to come throu sooner it would better our chances of benefiting from dynamic cooling speaking for "Mcdowell county" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Looks warmer and not as wet to me. EDIT: Has 850s of 0C here at hr 60. Can't get any closer to that, but COLD RAIN! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 FWIW (not much), the WB clown goes 1.3" GSO, 1.7" INT, 1.8" HKY, 5.0" Wilkesboro, 5.9" Boone... looks like around 4" for AVL. Not sure I buy those totals outside the mountains, though it was close, so I guess it's not impossible something happened in between the six-hour panels (doubtful, though). Not really what I wanted to see. Looks like the front-end potential is waning at this point. Still hoping for a miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 ya, not as good as last night...oh well, thought maybe more would have a shot...not anymore at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 ya, not as good as last night...oh well, thought maybe more would have a shot...not anymore at this point. I personally wouldn't throw in the towel for areas outside the mtns until tomorrow's 12z runs...way too much time to trend yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I personally wouldn't throw in the towel for areas outside the mtns until tomorrow's 12z runs...way too much time to trend yet.Yeah im not throwing the towel in til 12z tomorrow to close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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