Ollie Williams Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The Tues 12z & Wed 0z Model Suites trended colder overall to include some parts of the SE areas *outside of the mtns* potentially seeing a threat of wintry weather for Friday & Saturday.The 0z GFS was the warmest solution (that seems to be its bias, as stated by others) But it still continued to trend slightly colder (NAM as well) The CMC has a 1030 HP sliding into position along the lee side of the apps locking in cold air for CAD areas. Mixed bag of wintry weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ollie Williams Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 The Euro shows HP bleeding over the Apps ahead of the storm, so it essentially has a colder look similar to CMC. Looks like some snow/mix in parts of NC & VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ollie Williams Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 6z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Euro ensemble looks rock solid for WNC. KAVL has 47/50 showing accumulation for the 23rd-24th with 44/50 showing +2". The Deterministic is up above 6" and the ensemble average is just above 5". Boone has 49/50 seeing the storm and many of those members go over the 10" mark with the Monday clipper. If cold air can get itself in place over WNC, I think we see a pretty decent event up here in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Euro ensemble looks rock solid for WNC. KAVL has 47/50 showing accumulation for the 23rd-24th with 44/50 showing +2". The Deterministic is up above 6" and the ensemble average is just above 5". Boone has 49/50 seeing the storm and many of those members go over the 10" mark with the Monday clipper. If cold air can get itself in place over WNC, I think we see a pretty decent event up here in the mountains. Mountains and foothills have to like where we are sitting right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Mountains and foothills have to like where we are sitting right nowwould like to see it a tad colder. Cmc looks to be all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Mountains and foothills have to like where we are sitting right nowDepends of your location in the foothills. Sitting in the southern end gives. Major sense of uncertainty in this type of setup. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buncombe Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Depends of your location in the foothills. Sitting in the southern end gives. Major sense of uncertainty in this type of setup. Sent from my iPhone Trends have been positive overnight (couldn't have been worse yesterday), but I'm still very worried about temps. 850's look warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 WPC probabilities of 2 or more inches of snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The EPS graphs really perked up over night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I would say that WSW would likely go up sometime today if models keep the colder trend for some. What a difference last night. The drunk doc especially Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Did the 6z gfs come in colder too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The EPS graphs really perked up over night. For what areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I am not ruling out a front end thump of snow for the northern upstate. Mid/upper levels look potentially cold enough until midmorning Friday. The bigger concern during that time is/was low level temps; however, the models are tending much colder at the surface in response to the wedge. The Euro and CMC now have the northern upstate staying in the mid 30's all day Friday. In my experience, a finger of precip often outruns the model output in these type setups. If we could get some steady precip in here from 3am to 7am we might have a window for a quick thump of snow, before the upper levels warm. Wish thinking... I know! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I am not ruling out a front end thump of snow for the northern upstate. Mid/upper levels look potentially cold enough until midmorning Friday. The bigger concern during that time is/was low level temps; however, the models are tending much colder at the surface in response to the wedge. The Euro and CMC now have the northern upstate staying in the mid 30's all day Friday. In my experience, a finger of precip often outruns the model output in these type setups. If we could get some steady precip in here from 3am to 7am we might have a window for a quick thump of snow, before the upper levels warm. Wish thinking... I know! Very accurate explanation for this local area. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 For what areas? everywhere basically...boone went from 4" to 5", asheville at 5.5", RDU went from 0.1" to 0.2"....CLT went from 0" to 0.6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Did the 6z gfs come in colder too? no not really same as the 00z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 everywhere basically...boone went from 4" to 5", asheville at 5.5", RDU went from 0.1" to 0.2"....CLT went from 0" to 0.6" HKY was up to 4" on the EPS mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Did the 6z gfs come in colder too? No, in fact maybe a hair warmer in some areas along the escarpment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Big post update on my thoughts. More later for sure. Keep the cold trends alive. www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 KMRN had 6" on the OP and 4" on the EPS Mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 No, in fact maybe a hair warmer in some areas along the escarpment.Sounds about right Dan.... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I would really like to see the SREF come in colder. So far it's holding serve on a cool rain for almost everyone save for some of the highest elevations. That being said it isn't quite in it's range yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 For what areas? Everyone was way up. For our area, GSO was up to 2" with the vast majority of members showing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Thanks for the details on the EPS folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 HKY was up to 4" on the EPS mean. so is it looking more and more now like a snowstorm for some folks? think I'm reading that this is trending colder and the precip is more north and west now. if so will this start in the wee hours of Friday morning say around 3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The 9z SREF stinks from what I can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The 9z SREF stinks from what I can tell. the 850 looks to be just to the SE of rock hill at 69. So yeah, it looks warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Nam is getting juiced up at hr 39. Cold air is pressing a little further south on this run. Could be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 12z NAM appears to be coming in quite a bit faster with precip at 36. Low northeast TX coast vs. southeast TX coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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