Possible Weekend Snowstorm, Jan 24 2015

[Ginx snewx]

Ryan says possible rain to Berks

Hes so overplaying the antecedent stuff. 962 dynamics drive interior down to 20s at the surface, the Euro does not show anything close to his thoughts. Cripes even Will told you its powder in NCT. Its almost like peeps get an idea and refuse to let it go in the face of mounting evidence,. Sure you get this initial WAA burst but when that mofo crashes heights it crashes .Not seeing it on Euro GGEM op runs 

[CoastalWx]

The Euro agreeing with its ensembles and, what, the Canadian? Sort of the NAM (with a nod to this not being a timeframe where the NAM is its "best"). The GFS is still doing its own thing and it sounds like the Ukie as well (though I haven't seen that myself yet).

 

I'd say there's whiff-wiggle.

 

It could come west to the cape or east...but I feel like the east trend is less of a threat. Probably a greater chance to come west a bit. Who knows though at this stage...this winter has done some weird stuff when it comes to guessing like that.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Hes so overplaying the antecedent stuff. 962 dynamics drive interior down to 20s at the surface, the Euro does not show anything close to his thoughts. Cripes even Will told you its powder in NCT. Its almost like peeps get an idea and refuse to let it go in the face of mounting evidence,. Sure you get this initial WAA burst but when that mofo crashes heights it crashes .Not seeing it on Euro GGEM op runs

We do have a stubborn Quebec low though, I am concerned about it.

[CT Rain]

Hes so overplaying the antecedent stuff. 962 dynamics drive interior down to 20s at the surface, the Euro does not show anything close to his thoughts. Cripes even Will told you its powder in NCT. Its almost like peeps get an idea and refuse to let it go in the face of mounting evidence,. Sure you get this initial WAA burst but when that mofo crashes heights it crashes .Not seeing it on Euro GGEM op runs 

 

OK - well I wouldn't say a 962mb low is a lock - and I think without blocking and a nice cold high to the north this thing could easily come west. Most of the EPS members are west of the op/ensemble mean and inside the benchmark. 

[CoastalWx]

Hes so overplaying the antecedent stuff. 962 dynamics drive interior down to 20s at the surface, the Euro does not show anything close to his thoughts. Cripes even Will told you its powder in NCT. Its almost like peeps get an idea and refuse to let it go in the face of mounting evidence,. Sure you get this initial WAA burst but when that mofo crashes heights it crashes .Not seeing it on Euro GGEM op runs 

 

He's talking about storm track dude. It definitely could tuck closer too,  if it really intensifies because of the lack of confluence near Maine. One thing to watch is that s/w in Ontario. That tries to push SE along with other weak impulses and helps save this thing from running into BDR. So if that weakens etc, then it comes west. If it's quicker, it goes east. These are all moving parts that aren't very clear right now. 

[Damage In Tolland]

OK - well I wouldn't say a 962mb low is a lock - and I think without blocking and a nice cold high to the north this thing could easily come west. Most of the EPS members are west of the op/ensemble mean and inside the benchmark.

Just would make it a wetter snow inland and up

[Ginx snewx]

Ed Vallee ‏@EdValleeWx  10m

 

Mean EPS snowfall generally in the 6-10" range from just west of DC up through coastal ME. Less along the coast due to mixing.

[CT Rain]

He's talking about storm track dude. It definitely could tuck closer too,  if it really intensifies because of the lack of confluence near Maine. One thing to watch is that s/w in Ontario. That tries to push SE along with other weak impulses and helps save this thing from running into BDR. So if that weakens etc, then it comes west. If it's quicker, it goes east. These are all moving parts that aren't very clear right now. 

Yeah with the setup I think it's fair to say the band of S+ will be relatively narrow and there is certainly the possibility this comes west a bit. Without much confluence to the north that's always a risk. 

[Ginx snewx]

OK - well I wouldn't say a 962mb low is a lock - and I think without blocking and a nice cold high to the north this thing could easily come west. Most of the EPS members are west of the op/ensemble mean and inside the benchmark. 

I thought you were talking about op runs 

[TheSnowman]

I hope it hits, not because I want snow, but because I have no direct way of punishing you for the way you capitalize **** at random.

I capitalize strategically so you Better hear my inflection. There needs to be sound clips available here. But if you've talked to me before you'd get it.

[CT Rain]

I thought you were talking about op runs 

 

No. EPS. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Part of me wants you to debbie your way to a deform band because the posts from 40/70 would be epically entertaining lol.

See, that is fine by me. 

Feel however you'd like.

 

I don't understand the morons that get butt-hurt and call me a DB for posts like that.

As if we control it...jesus, it's snow.

[Ginx snewx]

No. EPS. 

Gotcha, I could see a hellacious CF setup, going to be very interesting as some of those Ens members are pure sick

[CoastalWx]

To me, this won't have a CF unless it plows into CT. If that low takes a track like the EC has, it's something where winds go light and then almost immediately, NE-N. Rapid cyclogenesis will prevent that.

[Ginx snewx]

It could come west to the cape or east...but I feel like the east trend is less of a threat. Probably a greater chance to come west a bit.

Interestingly Will said the opposite. I suppose ether based on ens is within the realm so saying possible rain, possible heavy snow possible whiff is is correct. Once again pretty much go time decisions or at least inside 36.

[powderfreak]

Well I for one need ensemble member 48 to work out, lol.

[dryslot]

EPS looked better as the low did not get the boot ENE like the op run had and tracked just east of the tip of NS

[Ginx snewx]

To me, this won't have a CF unless it plows into CT. If that low takes a track like the EC has, it's something where winds go light and then almost immediately, NE-N. Rapid cyclogenesis will prevent that.

I could see going from heavy ripping snow to rain as one approaches the Cape Cod Ma area

[Chrisrotary12]

There are a lot of members (I'd say the biggest cluster) west of the ensemble mean. I would say that's a big red flag for many in SNE with such a hideous setup to our north. 

 

This has been the theme with the last few runs going back to at least 3 model runs.  Honestly a track over ACK or the Outer Cape would not shock me. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yea, that cluster s of RI is disconcerting.

[JC-CT]

Yea, that cluster s of RI is disconcerting.

 

Would still be your biggest snowfall of the season.

[Ginx snewx]

The theme for me is sub 975, super rapid bombogenesis, crashing heights,super high VVs, intense dynamic colling.

[ORH_wxman]

Some of that is timing differences too...it's not like a low S of central LI ends up tracking over the canal like some other events. This trough is humming along.

[Damage In Tolland]

That massive cluster near the BM is overwhelming

[TalcottWx]

Yea, that cluster s of RI is disconcerting.

From what I have seen we will be fine at both Wilmington and Andover as long as this doesn't track over the cape. Seems like the east track is an outlier and so is one on the cape at this moment in time. That leaves us with plowable likely imho in the least. I think we are in the potential absolute crush region if this verifies. That would really include anywhere from us to ORH to even Kevin. It's the SE MA/South of BOS/Around people that I am worried for with this NW trend that has yet to cease.

 

I think we have no reason to worry about mixing here just judging right now. I hope this isn't the kiss of death, but there simply isn't a lot of time for this to plow inland with the progressive nature of the setup. I would feel pretty damn good inland away from the immediate coast right now. Not sure about the far northwest at this time.

[CT Rain]

Some of that is timing differences too...it's not like a low S of central LI ends up tracking over the canal like some other events. This trough is humming along.

 

Yes - some is - but if you look at the individual members the clustering is most impressive inside the benchmark. We'll see it looks like a fun storm nonetheless - just a few big caution flags for many of us outside of ORH and Litchfield Hills in SNE.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Would still be your biggest snowfall of the season.

Not saying much. 

[wxmanmitch]

The Reader's Digest version of the 2014-2015 winter:

 

A TRACK FURTHER EAST WOULD RESULT IN A HIGHER RISK FOR WET SNOW

ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...BUT THE REST OF THE REGION WOULD SEE

LESS SNOW AND POSSIBLY A COMPLETE SHUT OUT IN NORTHWEST

MASSACHUSETTS.

 

Hopefully for our sake this thing tracks from MTK to GHG. Given the compact nature of this storm, we're practically going to need it to track inland over SE MA. Often times an ACK track is okay here, but this time even an ACK track may be too far SE. This event will have a narrow zone of bliss.

 

I was hoping the first storm would end up being a non-event, setting the stage for a bigger, slower moving storm early next week that has room to develop and get all of us pretty good, but the first event kind of mucks things up by shifting the baroclinic zone too far SE. Two waves close together won't have as much room to develop either. As such, we may have a situation where we miss both storm #1 and storm #2 here in W MA due to destructive interference.

[CoastalWx]

Interestingly Will said the opposite. I suppose ether based on ens is within the realm so saying possible rain, possible heavy snow possible whiff is is correct. Once again pretty much go time decisions or at least inside 36.

 

Well I stated why it could go either direction. It very well may not change at all. Who really knows right now, other than a storm is on the table. Luckily things are still rather progressive overall.

[powderfreak]

Hopefully for our sake this thing tracks from MTK to GHG. Given the compact nature of this storm, we're practically going to need it to track inland over SE MA. Often times an ACK track is okay here, but this time even an ACK track may be too far SE. This event will have a narrow zone of bliss.

 

 

 

lol I was thinking about that...sometimes we can do awesome with the current track going over ACK up here, but not with this compact system.  For myself to get hit with this compact nuke, it would have to track over CON, .