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Possible Weekend Snowstorm, Jan 24 2015

ineedsnow

By ineedsnow,
in New England

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted

Why would dynamic cooling imply lower totals? Not knocking, just curious. Do you mean north of the Pike?

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Personally, if a model is not clear cut on where say the 850mb level is it shows me that they are having a difficult time resolving issues with it and how the system may or may not me intensifying. With a system such as this coming out of the gulf with a good amount of latent heat to release into the atmosphere I'd hedge warmer if I were to make a snowfall forecast in areas where the thermo profile is marginal at best for snow.

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BostonWX

BostonWX

Posted
Posted

.

Personally, if a model is not clear cut on where say the 850mb level is it shows me that they are having a difficult time resolving issues with it and how the system may or may not me intensifying. With a system such as this coming out of the gulf with a good amount of latent heat to release into the atmosphere I'd hedge warmer if I were to make a snowfall forecast in areas where the thermo profile is marginal at best for snow.

 

That's a good point, didn't think about it that way. I personally would hedge colder given this scenario, but what you said makes total sense.

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted

That's a good point, didn't think about it that way. I personally would hedge colder given this scenario, but what you said makes total sense.

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No problem. This system has had a lot of negative going for it from the get go that have been discussed over and over. Initially models were amplifying this system and bombing it out. Up till yesterday that was the case and than we saw a period where the models were not as intense and we were talking within 48h of the storm. That was pretty evident up into today on all guidance and it has not been until the 18z guidance that we've seen any reversal in that warming, deamplification. Maybe this is a case whereby we see the cold win out but we have seen countless times where systems come out of the gulf end up on the warmed side of guidance/models.

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