JC-CT Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Well it is true to a point. It is 6 hrs closer to an event and in theory should have a better idea than its 12z run. However, you still need to ask yourself if it makes sense. In this case, the RGEM surprised me a bit. Isn't the old mantra that these things always have a last minute tick east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Isn't the old mantra that these things always have a last minute tick east? The euro sometimes had that because it sometimes overamped a bit. But, that mantra is sometimes a myth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Who is this Noone person you keep talking about? Every met in this thread for starters. Just pretend it's not available to view. Like it was never invented Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 18z NAM considerably more moist, eh? LoL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I've heard of both the dreaded last minute SE tick or the dreaded last second NW tick...I'm not sure if there is a bias in one direction or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I've heard of both the dreaded last minute SE tick or the dreaded last second NW tick...I'm not sure if there is a bias in one direction or not. i think there is one for east coast TS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 How much money/beer/liquor would you like to bet that BOS sees over 3" lol...I'm a betting man...12 pack beer of your choice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 i think there is one for east coast TS Parabolic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 lol...I'm a betting man...12 pack beer of your choiceIt's on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 It's onyes sir it is! Good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 It's on You'll be drinking beer this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Exactly. It has no use in anyone's forecast. There aren't any mets that are basing any aspect of their forecast on it. Or shouldn't be if they arei look at it simply beacuse its there and to perhaps learn some biases. But with so much information out there and so little time to construct a forecast, i usually wont bog myself down but trying to figure it out. Not until it starts becoming more relaiable and less misleading. Ain't nobody got time for that. But i guess one important point here is to utilize science and knowledge of climo to construct a forecast and don't lock yourself into any one piece of info. The euro comes close tho...but even that chokes every so often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 i look at it simply beacuse its there and to perhaps learn some biases. But with so much information out there and so little time to construct a forecast, i usually wont bog myself down but trying to figure it out. Not until it starts becoming more relaiable and less misleading. Ain't nobody got time for that. But i guess one important point here is to utilize science and knowledge of climo to construct a forecast and don't lock yourself into any one piece of info. The euro comes close tho...but even that chokes every so often.Very good point and well stated. It's just so frustrating when you see comments about the Gfs worries me or that it is useful to incorporate into a forecast. For years I've argued that very thing on this forum. It only adds confusion when it goes against all other guidance and climo/ science. In the end though.. It's meteorology and not modelology as you said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Damn its quiet in here can we talk about snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Very good point and well stated. It's just so frustrating when you see comments about the Gfs worries me or that it is useful to incorporate into a forecast. For years I've argued that very thing on this forum. It only adds confusion when it goes against all other guidance and climo/ science. In the end though.. It's meteorology and not modelology as you said And that's what we state. You gotta know when to hold and know when to fold. It's not always terrible and can show a trend too. I've been burned by the euro as well, even though more often than not..it's usually better. It's part of the game, but like Mike said...incorporating climo and perhaps some previous similar setups can also help significantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Damn its quiet in here can we talk about snow Dead zone. No new model guidance for 2+ hours. I guess you could start looking at 18 hour rap forecasts. But those are about as useful as 84 hour nam forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 21z RPM 4km rolling out! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Dead zone. No new model guidance for 2+ hours. I guess you could start looking at 18 hour rap forecasts. But those are about as useful as 84 hour nam forecasts.I have work tonight. Probably gonna be a 15 person brawl and noone around to break it up cause ill be in the bathroom stall hiding from my bosses checking the overnight guidance."sorry boss the gfs was running" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I have work tonight. Probably gonna be a 15 person brawl and noone around to break it up cause ill be in the bathroom stall hiding from my bosses checking the overnight guidance."sorry boss the gfs was running" What bar? I'm go over and throw some chairs through the windows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Damn its quiet in here can we talk about snow. Its going to rain, a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 What bar? I'm go over and throw some chairs through the windows.Whisky Saigon. Used to be Gypsy Bar. It's at Boylston and Tremont on the common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 NAM has really trended up for KCON between 0z and 18z runs about .1" to .87" QPF with a steady gains each run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Whisky Saigon. Used to be Gypsy Bar. It's at Boylston and Tremont on the common. Oh yeah..I know that one. Good to know you'll let me right in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Whisky Saigon. Used to be Gypsy Bar. It's at Boylston and Tremont on the common.are you the entertainment? Pink thong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Oh yeah..I know that one. Good to know you'll let me right in the champagne room.Man Alison should know,I mean dude.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 How long until Tip posts the 18 Z GFS shifted SE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 And that's what we state. You gotta know when to hold and know when to fold. It's not always terrible and can show a trend too. I've been burned by the euro as well, even though more often than not..it's usually better. It's part of the game, but like Mike said...incorporating climo and perhaps some previous similar setups can also help significantly.when it comes to models i compare it to assessing the value of fantasy football players. You may hit big once or twice with coby fleener, but i'd rather take my chances with gronk from week to week. Over time, you win more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 are you the entertainment? Pink thong?Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 when it comes to models i compare it to assessing the value of fantasy football players. You may hit big once or twice with coby fleener, but i'd rather take my chances with gronk from week to week. Over time, you win more. Well said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 End of the HRRR run looks good for you guys. Pretty interested in seeing what happens. This forum comes alive for a SNE snowstorm. Should be a good one, especially how this year has gone. Most of you will be able to enjoy good snow cover, too, especially for the upcoming cold pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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