Max Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I'm looking at the hi-res NAM and its way colder at 850mb than the 12km NAM at 18z. Is that usually what happens when you scale down all the way to 4km from 12km. I mean its also much colder than the 12z euro too. Wonder why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 He did that on the Euro....NAM was probably closer to 8-10 And there's a 100% chance he will complain no matter which solution verifies. Harsh! I've got no complaints. I wonder if my snowblower still starts--haven't used it since Thanksgiving morning. Now THAT's worth a complaint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Not really you got to move, you got to move, when the lord is ready you got to move Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 These confuse me. They have me 1-2" but over 60% chance of getting >4 inches. Kindcof misleading What's so confusing about it? They are expecting you to get less than they believe you are most likely to get. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I'm really liking that corridor near ORH-LWM. Been all about that area for a couple days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 Winter Storm WarningURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA355 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015...COASTAL STORM WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW AND A WINTRY MIX TOMORROWAND TOMORROW EVENING...CTZ002>004-MAZ004>006-011>014-026-RIZ001-240500-/O.UPG.KBOX.WS.A.0002.150124T0500Z-150125T0400Z//O.NEW.KBOX.WS.W.0002.150124T0500Z-150125T0000Z/HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION...VERNON...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC...BARRE...FITCHBURG...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE...SPRINGFIELD...MILFORD...WORCESTER...FOXBORO...NORWOOD...CAMBRIDGE...AYER...FOSTER...SMITHFIELD355 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PMEST SATURDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORMWARNING FOR HEAVY WET SNOW AND LIGHT ICING...WHICH IS IN EFFECTFROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCHIS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHWEST RHODE ISLAND...ANDMUCH OF CENTRAL AND INTERIOR EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT ICEACCUMULATIONS.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...EXCEPT 6 TO10 INCHES IN WORCESTER AND MIDDLESEX COUNTIES...ALONG WITH ATRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE.* TIMING...SNOW BEGINS VERY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND MAY MIXWITH FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND EVEN JUST RAIN...BEFORE CHANGINGBACK TO SNOW TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT TRAVEL. LARGE BRANCHES AND WIRES COULD BEBROUGHT DOWN.* WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN AN AVERAGE OF 6 OR MOREINCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD...OR FOR 8 OR MOREINCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. TRAVEL WILL BE SLOW AT BEST ON WELLTREATED SURFACES...AND QUITE DIFFICULT ON ANY UNPLOWED ORUNTREATED SURFACES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Boston gets an advisory, everywhere west gets a warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I'm looking at the hi-res NAM and its way colder at 850mb than the 12km NAM at 18z. Is that usually what happens when you scale down all the way to 4km from 12km. I mean its also much colder than the 12z euro too. Wonder why? The clown maps reflect that very well, meso details being important here and you see that on the hi Res Euro and RGEM as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 What's so confusing about it? They are expecting you to get less than they believe you are most likely to get. lol Lol, apparently. I'm expecting a couple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Boston gets an advisory, everywhere west gets a warning Climo says that's probably a good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 BOX warnings/advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 BOX warnings/advisories. Ginxy was right...we did get Chartreuse on a map before the season was over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Warning map is fine..although I would put Essex county in pink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I'm looking at the hi-res NAM and its way colder at 850mb than the 12km NAM at 18z. Is that usually what happens when you scale down all the way to 4km from 12km. I mean its also much colder than the 12z euro too. Wonder why? I think earlier hi res was warmer for 12z? Some of this may be related to precip intensity right at that time snap shot. Previous hours may have had any warmer area further SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Warning map is fine..although I would put Essex county in pink. Technically the interior of Essex county IS pink. I think I recall the eastern half/the shore going above 0 C on the last couple Euro runs at the height of things, so this could line up well with that. Or is your thinking more that they do well on the back end, enough so to meet warning crit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Technically the interior of Essex county IS pink. I think I recall the eastern half/the shore going above 0 C on the last couple Euro runs at the height of things, so this could line up well with that. Or is your thinking more that they do well on the back end, enough so to meet warning crit? They have some latitude too..my guess is the area north of Cape Ann will do pretty well. I mean maybe right at the beaches is a bit less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 No, it's the model. I mean what a joke.It's generally garbage no matter what they do to it. I shake my head when forecasters take a lot of time racking their brains and giving themselves anxiety trying to understand and incorporate the gfs into a forecast - especially when the chips are down. How bout this - use other tools and step away. It's ok to not consider it. If i'm wrong then I'm wrong but I'll go down with the ecmwf/ecmwf ens any day over this other junk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 well the meso 4km Nam certainly is a horse of a different color than its big sistah and baby momma Looks a bit more Euro-like than the op NAM...at least for CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monadnocks Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Boston gets an advisory, everywhere west gets a warning In the Monadnock region in NH, we now have an advisory. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 It's generally garbage no matter what they do to it. I shake my head when forecasters take a lot of time racking their brains and giving themselves anxiety trying to understand and incorporate the gfs into a forecast - especially when the chips are down. How bout this - use other tools and step away. It's ok to not consider it. If i'm wrong then I'm wrong but I'll go down with the ecmwf/ecmwf ens any day over this other junk.Ive said that for years and taken crap from mets .,you just simply don't look at it or use it. Period. My preaching is being heard. You are now an official member of my church Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 If i'm wrong then I'm wrong Can't argue with that logic. Truth is, you can usually tell when it has a system figured out and when it doesn't. It never had this one, or Monday, figured out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 It's generally garbage no matter what they do to it. I shake my head when forecasters take a lot of time racking their brains and giving themselves anxiety trying to understand and incorporate the gfs into a forecast - especially when the chips are down. How bout this - use other tools and step away. It's ok to not consider it. If i'm wrong then I'm wrong but I'll go down with the ecmwf/ecmwf ens any day over this other junk. This will be the first good test for both proximity in the 2-3 day range (which it failed) and thermal profile in the near term. It's already a warm outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 It's generally garbage no matter what they do to it. I shake my head when forecasters take a lot of time racking their brains and giving themselves anxiety trying to understand and incorporate the gfs into a forecast - especially when the chips are down. How bout this - use other tools and step away. It's ok to not consider it. If i'm wrong then I'm wrong but I'll go down with the ecmwf/ecmwf ens any day over this other junk. This is the worst part about it. It can't nail a winter storm in the northeast...it just doesn't. Occasionally it scores a coup, but that is a pretty rare exception. So often it actually just totally chokes in a sizable event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The nice thing is the slow steady creep up. Did the Euro ens also increase again? I don't have access to the qpf maps for the ensembles Mark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 These confuse me. They have me 1-2" but over 60% chance of getting >4 inches. Kindcof misleading Yeah those things are not terribly useful. I would definitely NOT say BDL has a 100% chance of seeing 4" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 It's generally garbage no matter what they do to it. I shake my head when forecasters take a lot of time racking their brains and giving themselves anxiety trying to understand and incorporate the gfs into a forecast - especially when the chips are down. How bout this - use other tools and step away. It's ok to not consider it. If i'm wrong then I'm wrong but I'll go down with the ecmwf/ecmwf ens any day over this other junk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 This is the worst part about it. It can't nail a winter storm in the northeast...it just doesn't. Occasionally it scores a coup, but that is a pretty rare exception. So often it actually just totally chokes in a sizable event. The last few winters it exhibited an alarming trend on several events, i.e., the solution getting less accurate and having less continuity within 72 hours with each successive run. That's not exactly something that infuses confidence. When a model has shown that it's 96 hour forecast is better then it's 24 hour forecast, that's a bit of an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Yeah those things are not terribly useful. I would definitely NOT say BDL has a 100% chance of seeing 4" of snow.Right.. They have a 110% chance of at LEAST 6 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 .The last few winters it exhibited an alarming trend on several events, i.e., the solution getting less accurate and having less continuity within 72 hours with each successive run. That's not exactly something that infuses confidence. When a model has shown that it's 96 hour forecast is better then it's 24 hour forecast, that's a bit of an issue. It seems that it's particularly bad with east coast cyclogenesis. When it's solutions are flopping around wildly run to tun it makes the model completely unusable IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Rgem clowny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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