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Possible Weekend Snowstorm, Jan 24 2015

ineedsnow

By ineedsnow,
in New England

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ineedsnow

ineedsnow

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Winter Storm WarningURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
355 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

...COASTAL STORM WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW AND A WINTRY MIX TOMORROW
AND TOMORROW EVENING...

CTZ002>004-MAZ004>006-011>014-026-RIZ001-240500-
/O.UPG.KBOX.WS.A.0002.150124T0500Z-150125T0400Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.WS.W.0002.150124T0500Z-150125T0000Z/
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-
CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION...
VERNON...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC...BARRE...FITCHBURG...FRAMINGHAM...
LOWELL...LAWRENCE...SPRINGFIELD...MILFORD...WORCESTER...FOXBORO...
NORWOOD...CAMBRIDGE...AYER...FOSTER...SMITHFIELD
355 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM
EST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY WET SNOW AND LIGHT ICING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH
IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHWEST RHODE ISLAND...AND
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND INTERIOR EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...EXCEPT 6 TO
10 INCHES IN WORCESTER AND MIDDLESEX COUNTIES...ALONG WITH A
TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE.

* TIMING...SNOW BEGINS VERY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND MAY MIX
WITH FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND EVEN JUST RAIN...BEFORE CHANGING
BACK TO SNOW TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT TRAVEL. LARGE BRANCHES AND WIRES COULD BE
BROUGHT DOWN.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN AN AVERAGE OF 6 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD...OR FOR 8 OR MORE
INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. TRAVEL WILL BE SLOW AT BEST ON WELL
TREATED SURFACES...AND QUITE DIFFICULT ON ANY UNPLOWED OR
UNTREATED SURFACES.
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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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I'm looking at the hi-res NAM and its way colder at 850mb than the 12km NAM at 18z. Is that usually what happens when you scale down all the way to 4km from 12km. I mean its also much colder than the 12z euro too. Wonder why?

The clown maps reflect that very well, meso details being important here and you see that on the hi Res Euro and RGEM as well.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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I'm looking at the hi-res NAM and its way colder at 850mb than the 12km NAM at 18z. Is that usually what happens when you scale down all the way to 4km from 12km. I mean its also much colder than the 12z euro too. Wonder why?

 

I think earlier hi res was warmer for 12z? Some of this may be related to precip intensity right at that time snap shot. Previous hours may have had any warmer area further SW. 

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Zeus

Zeus

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Warning map is fine..although I would put Essex county in pink.

 

Technically the interior of Essex county IS pink. I think I recall the eastern half/the shore going above 0 C on the last couple Euro runs at the height of things, so this could line up well with that.

 

Or is your thinking more that they do well on the back end, enough so to meet warning crit?

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Technically the interior of Essex county IS pink. I think I recall the eastern half/the shore going above 0 C on the last couple Euro runs at the height of things, so this could line up well with that.

 

Or is your thinking more that they do well on the back end, enough so to meet warning crit?

 

They have some latitude too..my guess is the area north of Cape Ann will do pretty well. I mean maybe right at the beaches is a bit less.

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Arnold214

Arnold214

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No, it's the model. I mean what a joke.

It's generally garbage no matter what they do to it. I shake my head when forecasters take a lot of time racking their brains and giving themselves anxiety trying to understand and incorporate the gfs into a forecast - especially when the chips are down. How bout this - use other tools and step away. It's ok to not consider it. If i'm wrong then I'm wrong but I'll go down with the ecmwf/ecmwf ens any day over this other junk.
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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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It's generally garbage no matter what they do to it. I shake my head when forecasters take a lot of time racking their brains and giving themselves anxiety trying to understand and incorporate the gfs into a forecast - especially when the chips are down. How bout this - use other tools and step away. It's ok to not consider it. If i'm wrong then I'm wrong but I'll go down with the ecmwf/ecmwf ens any day over this other junk.

Ive said that for years and taken crap from mets .,you just simply don't look at it or use it. Period. My preaching is being heard. You are now an official member of my church
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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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It's generally garbage no matter what they do to it. I shake my head when forecasters take a lot of time racking their brains and giving themselves anxiety trying to understand and incorporate the gfs into a forecast - especially when the chips are down. How bout this - use other tools and step away. It's ok to not consider it. If i'm wrong then I'm wrong but I'll go down with the ecmwf/ecmwf ens any day over this other junk.

 

This will be the first good test for both proximity in the 2-3 day range (which it failed) and thermal profile in the near term. It's already a warm outlier.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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It's generally garbage no matter what they do to it. I shake my head when forecasters take a lot of time racking their brains and giving themselves anxiety trying to understand and incorporate the gfs into a forecast - especially when the chips are down. How bout this - use other tools and step away. It's ok to not consider it. If i'm wrong then I'm wrong but I'll go down with the ecmwf/ecmwf ens any day over this other junk.

 

This is the worst part about it. It can't nail a winter storm in the northeast...it just doesn't. Occasionally it scores a coup, but that is a pretty rare exception. So often it actually just totally chokes in a sizable event.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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It's generally garbage no matter what they do to it. I shake my head when forecasters take a lot of time racking their brains and giving themselves anxiety trying to understand and incorporate the gfs into a forecast - especially when the chips are down. How bout this - use other tools and step away. It's ok to not consider it. If i'm wrong then I'm wrong but I'll go down with the ecmwf/ecmwf ens any day over this other junk.

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Arnold214

Arnold214

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This is the worst part about it. It can't nail a winter storm in the northeast...it just doesn't. Occasionally it scores a coup, but that is a pretty rare exception. So often it actually just totally chokes in a sizable event.

The last few winters it exhibited an alarming trend on several events, i.e., the solution getting less accurate and having less continuity within 72 hours with each successive run. That's not exactly something that infuses confidence. When a model has shown that it's 96 hour forecast is better then it's 24 hour forecast, that's a bit of an issue.
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CT Rain

CT Rain

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.The last few winters it exhibited an alarming trend on several events, i.e., the solution getting less accurate and having less continuity within 72 hours with each successive run. That's not exactly something that infuses confidence. When a model has shown that it's 96 hour forecast is better then it's 24 hour forecast, that's a bit of an issue.

It seems that it's particularly bad with east coast cyclogenesis. When it's solutions are flopping around wildly run to tun it makes the model completely unusable IMO.

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