Possible Weekend Snowstorm, Jan 24 2015

[ORH_wxman]

Nam colder west, Warmer out east

 

It's warmer aloft where you are too...but it just happens at 750mb vs 850...you are getting sandblasted with pellets on the NAM run for several hours.

[CoastalWx]

Nam colder west, Warmer out east

 

Just at 850, but it's within the realm of noise. 2 hrs earlier it could have been over you. This forecast will suck.

[MarkO]

Where will it stay all snow? NH Border or north of 495/Rt2?

[dryslot]

Good luck dude... you've been on the watching end of some of the NNE storms lately, hopefully you can score big in a SNE storm haha.

 

Thanks man, Its funny how this one has crept up over the last day

[TrueBlue]

18z Nam is a crushing up here

Do tell.................

[CoastalWx]

GFS is such a piece of cow sh*t. From a whiff to a furnace aloft. Eff you. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

No reason to NOT believe the NAM thermal profiles this close in unless they are off their rocker as compared to other guidance.

[ORH_wxman]

Where will it stay all snow? NH Border or north of 495/Rt2?

 

 

It's gonna be around there I think...probably close to a LWM-ORH line...it may creep above that line, but if it does, I think it won't last that long.

[dryslot]

Do tell.................

 

Well, fwiw..............

 

[ORH_wxman]

No reason to NOT believe the NAM thermal profiles this close in unless they are off their rocker as compared to other guidance.

 

They were definitely somewhat warmer than the RGEM....and the previous 12z NAM. I usually want to see agreement with other short term models and also some consistency before using the NAM.

[TrueBlue]

Very nice

[Damage In Tolland]

It's warmer aloft where you are too...but it just happens at 750mb vs 850...you are getting sandblasted with pellets on the NAM run for several hours.

That'll wash out

[ORH_wxman]

That'll wash out

 

Just hope the NAM is off it's rocker (which it very well might be)...because 2C at 750mb isn't "washing out"...lol.

 

If it was 0.5C, then yeah, maybe.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just hope the NAM is off it's rocker (which it very well might be)...because 2C at 750mb isn't "washing out"...lol.

 

If it was 0.5C, then yeah, maybe.

Well what i meant was on the NAM it would wash out in model chaos. I mean the Euro was basically 0-0.5C for the entire event..which is why I am steadfast it won't mix for 99% of the event..unless there's some weird lull in precip or something

[powderfreak]

Thanks man, Its funny how this one has crept up over the last day

 

Yeah, ticking north the last 24 hours with the precip shield.  Nice trends for you guys SE of the mountains.

[CT Rain]

Just hope the NAM is off it's rocker (which it very well might be)...because 2C at 750mb isn't "washing out"...lol.

 

If it was 0.5C, then yeah, maybe.

 

Though at 15z Saturday - there's a lot of QPF that falls and it's still <0c in the column around Hartford. Looks like that spike comes in an hour or 2 later around 750mb. 

 

I feel confident that almost all of CT gets a several hour (at least) icy mix period with pingers and ZR. 

[CoastalWx]

Well what i meant was on the NAM it would wash out in model chaos. I mean the Euro was basically 0-0.5C for the entire event..which is why I am steadfast it won't mix for 99% of the event..unless there's some weird lull in precip or something

 

A lull or at least a break in intensity may happen after the front end too. You are going to mix regardless, but you'll get a decent dumping.

[powderfreak]

euro/rgem has been steadfast and has increased front end snow and expanded qpf areal coverage

 

QPF queens worry about that stuff.

[ORH_wxman]

Well what i meant was on the NAM it would wash out in model chaos. I mean the Euro was basically 0-0.5C for the entire event..which is why I am steadfast it won't mix for 99% of the event..unless there's some weird lull in precip or something

 

 

I think you are severely under-estimating the amoutn of mixing...just embrace the sleet. You've never been one to shy away from it. You know how easy it sleets there.

 

There will still be plenty of snow on the front and back end and the sleet will help your pack last.

[Damage In Tolland]

I think you are severely under-estimating the amoutn of mixing...just embrace the sleet. You've never been one to shy away from it. You know how easy it sleets there.

 

There will still be plenty of snow on the front and back end and the sleet will help your pack last.

Fish is my favorite dish

Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher  12m

12 minutes ago

Latest thoughts on what will be falling from the sky tomorrow. Begins 4-7a from south to north.

[SR Airglow]

Though at 15z Saturday - there's a lot of QPF that falls and it's still <0c in the column around Hartford. Looks like that spike comes in an hour or 2 later around 750mb. 

 

I feel confident that almost all of CT gets a several hour (at least) icy mix period with pingers and ZR. 

I'm drawing the mix line basically 10 miles north of 84 west of BDL to 10 miles west of 91 basically, anywhere SE of that mixes I think. NW hills might ping for a little while, but I'm pretty confident in 90%+ snow up there.

[dryslot]

Yeah, ticking north the last 24 hours with the precip shield.  Nice trends for you guys SE of the mountains.

 

Will be curious to see where the RGEM is at 18Z, My guess is it may ramp up some as everything else has

[wxsniss]

18z NAM definitely red flag for Boston metro

But as pointed out, NAM and GFS are warmest guidance vs. Euro / RGEM

 

18z RGEM will be informative imo, if this warming trend vs. 12z continues then maybe NAM is onto something

[HIPPYVALLEY]

MPM will Eeyore his way to 6" on the NAM.

[wxmanmitch]

Nice hit for Berkshires on the 18z NAM. Looks like a widespread 6"+ event here, and now that we're within 24 hours, the NAM has more credibility. Me likey. 

[powderfreak]

Well what i meant was on the NAM it would wash out in model chaos. I mean the Euro was basically 0-0.5C for the entire event..which is why I am steadfast it won't mix for 99% of the event..unless there's some weird lull in precip or something

 

You are going to mix.  You are going to get a good dump of 5"+ of snow.  Those two things are a given. 

[ORH_wxman]

MPM will Eeyore his way to 6" on the NAM.

 

 

He did that on the Euro....NAM was probably closer to 8-10

 

And there's a 100% chance he will complain no matter which solution verifies.

[JC-CT]

Just hope the NAM is off it's rocker (which it very well might be)...because 2C at 750mb isn't "washing out"...lol.

 

If it was 0.5C, then yeah, maybe.

 

Maybe I don't know how to read a skew T, but i see one 3-hour frame that shows that at hr 24, which is also in between the front-end dump and the back-end tail. And that's for my location.

[WinterWolf]

GFS is such a piece of cow sh*t. From a whiff to a furnace aloft. Eff you. 

Lmao...he's jumped!!  Let it out...it feels good to do that!!

[Damage In Tolland]

You are going to mix.  You are going to get a good dump of 5"+ of snow.  Those two things are a given. 

Not if the Euro is right..If it's not..then i will. No harm no foul either way.

 

Congrats everyone