Possible Weekend Snowstorm, Jan 24 2015

[CoastalWx]

Tomorrow should be an interesting dual-pol day.

[SnowMan]

Tomorrow should be an interesting dual-pol day.

Sleet in N. CT while snowing just across the border in MA?

[CoastalWx]

Now NAM has a big warm thrust at 850 into ern MA. So much for that idea.

[klw]

SREF plumes are all over the place up here.  They range from .14 to 1.37 inches of snow in St. J.  How can we make plans with such uncertainty!!

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20141124&RT=03&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=1V4&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=44.49234506559211&mLON=-72.82372153625488&mTYP=roadmap

 

 

 

 

Edit: I just looked again and saw the more recent two runs actually show a spread with a couple of 5+ members this way.  I self jinxed.

 

this actually puts thie interesting area so close to me.

[Ginx snewx]

Sleet in N. CT while snowing just across the border in MA?

dumbfounded? If the Euro is right we all party, shot per inch? Saturday, snow, daytime, 

[CT Rain]

NAM is fun. Looks stronger and NW but a bit cooler at 850mb for many areas outside of SE NE. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Now NAM has a big warm thrust at 850 into ern MA. So much for that idea.

When in doubt, go higher.  

[Baroclinic Zone]

bufkit gave EWB 3.5 how the heck are you 2 

Well BOX has TAN @ 1-2" as of their latest map.

[Ginx snewx]

Nam on the thumidity dumpity train

 

[TalcottWx]

NAM is certainly west and warmer at 850 for E MA.

[ineedsnow]

nam is beautiful for my area seems like it would taint just south and keep me mostly snow

[CoastalWx]

When in doubt, go higher.  

 

It's one of those deals. A mess. Keeps slowly ticking warmer aloft though.

[SR Airglow]

Yeah NAM is weenie suicides for BOS metro, basically nothing for them on the front end while just NW is warning snows. Also jackpots our resident eeyore. Back end is nice for them though so it events out a bit.

[CoastalWx]

The general trend since yesterday has been to get warmer aloft from 850-700. It's not 850 you need to focus on.

[Bostonseminole]

nam QPF keeps increasing also

[dryslot]

18z Nam is a crushing up here

[Bostonseminole]

central mass does well on the NAM 8"+ 128 nw still 6-8" on NAM.. but drops off to <6" as you move into boston metro ( cambridge, boston, etc)

[TalcottWx]

It's still the NAM in the end. I prefer the RGEM over it.

[ORH_wxman]

The general trend since yesterday has been to get warmer aloft from 850-700. It's not 850 you need to focus on.

 

 

But as long as that 750-800 range stays below 0C, then it doesn't matter...this NAM run, it end sup mattering for BOS, but a lot of other runs it's warmer at like 750mb but colder at 850mb which is a good tradeoff if it was previously warmer at 850mb (but above zero)...and the latter scenario has a warmer but still below 0C 750mb.

[powderfreak]

18z Nam is a crushing up here

 

Good luck dude... you've been on the watching end of some of the NNE storms lately, hopefully you can score big in a SNE storm haha.

[Bostonseminole]

snow hangs around into early evening for EMA

[dryslot]

It's still the NAM in the end. I prefer the RGEM over it.

 

Its 16hrs out if its ever going to be right

[MarkO]

QPF weenies are going to love the NAM

[Ginx snewx]

The general trend since yesterday has been to get warmer aloft from 850-700. It's not 850 you need to focus on.

euro/rgem has been steadfast and has increased front end snow and expanded qpf areal coverage

[CoastalWx]

But as long as that 750-800 range stays below 0C, then it doesn't matter...this NAM run, it end sup mattering for BOS, but a lot of other runs it's warmer at like 750mb but colder at 850mb which is a good tradeoff if it was previously warmer at 850mb (but above zero)...and the latter scenario has a warmer but still below 0C 750mb.

 

I know, but every tick matters. It's the NAM, but the same general idea is there on the models. The ticks have to end soon. It really gets warm closer to 750-800 or so. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Nam colder west, Warmer out east

[ORH_wxman]

NAM does give a nice little parting gift to BOS despite the crappy period between 15z-21z.

 

 

But I can't take this model seriously unfortunately.

[SR Airglow]

GYX has warnings up for coastal ME and SENH.

[TalcottWx]

Beware of model noise. It's the day before the event. We often see these little differences in track that end up being nothing but noise in the end. Look for some consistency here heading into tonight before you get overly weenie or overly debbie depending on where you are. Just remember, it's the NAM. RGEM/EURO/Canadien probably a better combination.

[CoastalWx]

On the other hand, better looking tail at the end is also appearing as mid levels form nicely.