Possible Weekend Snowstorm, Jan 24 2015

[CoastalWx]

This one's a tough one...the thermal profile is so marginal for several hours...it's not like when we say "during the 2 hour period when it changes over, there's amazing dynamics so an extra 2 hours of S+ could really change the outcome before it flips to sleet"....in this case, we are talking about a static marginal profile for about 4 or 5 hours at the warmest point before it flips back to snow...not a huge WAA punch and then a dryslot.

 

We actually have the mid-level centers to our southeast which is more of an advantage. It's difficult to predict dynamics because you have to remember the models try and account for this. So you are really guessing whether the model has underestimated it or overestimated it. We have another round of models at 00z to help clear up the picture a little more....but my guess is there will be a lot of nowcasting for this one.

 

That's what I am afraid of and have the task of trying to communicate. Can't nowcast in this field...lol. Well aviation I mean. I wish we had euro soundings. Those sick Brit bastards and their data. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

I don't think there is a single model that gives you only 2-3" of snow.

I'm actually thinking 4-6" out here now.

[CoastalWx]

I'm also taking into account these slight ticks to the NW which continue to warm 850-800 ever so slightly. That has not stopped really.

[Ginx snewx]

Remember HVN won't get anywhere near 9

not playing games Kev, just asking what he thinks. I see a 6 pack front end alone just off the coast but I could be very wrong.

[Ginx snewx]

Euro is actually more robust in SSNE front end than I imagined, who needs your stinkin CCB, lol

[Damage In Tolland]

not playing games Kev, just asking what he thinks. I see a 6 pack front end alone just off the coast but I could be very wrong.

Thats what I meant. You get a quick 4-6 front and 1-3 on back .. It could bust high if you forecast low

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Final call. I'm going snowier because I can. If you disagree, suck it.

DXR: 9"

BDR: 8"

HVN: 7"

BDL: 8

IJD: 6"

[CoastalWx]

Looking at the euro now, not as warm as I thought aloft.

[Ginx snewx]

Looking at the euro now, not as warm as I thought aloft.

[CoastalWx]

Critical thicknesses aloft sort of follow the 850 0C line, but only just a bit NW of the 0C isotherm. Not way NW like you'd see in a SWFE. If that is right, I have a hard time seeing a prolonged taint from BDL-BED.

[HoarfrostHubb]

There have been like three storms in that past year where everyone is talking about dynamics overpowering and it doesn't, Thanksgiving was one of them. 

It helped for some of us

 

Actually, I have no idea if it was dynamic cooling or not that bombed my area that day

[Ginx snewx]

you guys have all seen this show, relax ,enjoy, we know where this is heading, congrats to anyone who jacks, its the start peeps, lets do this.

[CT Rain]

Euro is actually more robust in SSNE front end than I imagined, who needs your stinkin CCB, lol

 

3-6 most locations?

[HoarfrostHubb]

This is a very weird storm. Missing classic ingredients, fast mover, yet still producing a decent mod thump

 

Anyone have an event that is similar in the last 10 years or so?

[Ginx snewx]

3-6 most locations?

nice, thumpidity dumpity. Thumper the dumper

[Ginx snewx]

This is a very weird storm. Missing classic ingredients, fast mover, yet still producing a decent mod thump

 

Anyone have an event that is similar in the last 10 years or so?

I will get yelled at but yea a couple

[HoarfrostHubb]

I will get yelled at but yea a couple

Let me guess... Jan 1978, Dec 2005...something in 1682

[Ginx snewx]

Let me guess... Jan 1978, Dec 2005...something in 1682

since you got attitude, nope

[TalcottWx]

Euro would be pretty sick for NE Ma. Just finally taking a peek. Mid levels look great for banding here.

 

This is an extremely difficult forecast with this weird layer of warm air aloft

[ineedsnow]

i dont see much at all here if any im starting to think i pull off 6 to 8 of mashed 

Critical thicknesses aloft sort of follow the 850 0C line, but only just a bit NW of the 0C isotherm. Not way NW like you'd see in a SWFE. If that is right, I have a hard time seeing a prolonged taint from BDL-BED.

[toller65]

 

Would it be possible to provide the same output for the period through 12Z 25Jan2015?  thanks

[Baroclinic Zone]

you guys have all seen this show, relax ,enjoy, we know where this is heading, congrats to anyone who jacks, its the start peeps, lets do this.

Woohoo! 1-2", here I come.  I may top the biggest snowstorm I've had this season.

[Ginx snewx]

Woohoo! 1-2", here I come.  I may top the biggest snowstorm I've had this season.

Ok MPM no model except the GFS gives you that but you ride that horsey Mr Debra all day all night my man

 

[Ginx snewx]

Euro would be pretty sick for NE Ma. Just finally taking a peek. Mid levels look great for banding here.

 

This is an extremely difficult forecast with this weird layer of warm air aloft

Front ender is sick

[Baroclinic Zone]

Ok MPM no model except the GFS gives you that but you ride that horsey Mr Debra all day all night my man

12z NAM gave me 2"  

[TalcottWx]

Critical thicknesses aloft sort of follow the 850 0C line, but only just a bit NW of the 0C isotherm. Not way NW like you'd see in a SWFE. If that is right, I have a hard time seeing a prolonged taint from BDL-BED.

Just looking at critical thicknesses now. Taint might literally tickle Ray's fanny at it's furthest extent.

[SnowMan]

Ok MPM no model except the GFS gives you that but you ride that horsey Mr Debra all day all night my man

 

Serious side pipe going in that....

[Ginx snewx]

Would it be possible to provide the same output for the period through 12Z 25Jan2015?  thanks

Not euro but GFS has over 20 OTG for you by day ten

[Ginx snewx]

12z NAM gave me 2"  

bufkit gave EWB 3.5 how the heck are you 2 

[BostonWX]

I'm liking 5 to 9 anywhere north and or west of Boston to the Worcester area at this point. I think taint will limit it to a bit less than that here but still a decent bust potential.