Possible Weekend Snowstorm, Jan 24 2015

[quizplz]

Like the new snow totals, but once again Lewiston/Auburn looks to miss out.  :-(

[wxsniss]

just looked at 12z suite... sorry if repeated elsewhere

 

Actually pretty decent consensus between 12Z NAM, 0Z Euro, and 12Z RGEM, with RGEM slightly warmer and throwing back qpf well west.

 

GFS looks the odd one out with warmer thermal profile

 

The Box Map looks good, if not a touch conservative in the Boston area imo... 12NAM/0Euro/12RGEM all put down > 6" for Boston.

 

If 12Z Euro stays the course, would think at least winter storm watches will go up for much of eastern MA from CT border north and ORH east, at least.

 

EDIT: meaning extend watches to include Boston

[weathercoins]

What's the over/under for BOX going with wsw vs wwa for this area?

I bet they upgrade the watch area to a warning, issue an advisory for all areas not in the watch area

[dryslot]

Like the new snow totals, but once again Lewiston/Auburn looks to miss out.  :-(

 

Dude, Relax, The are not missing out............lol

[JC-CT]

I think the higher elevations very well may stay in the 20s. I don't think it is going to be a big paste job in the higher terrain...maybe a semi-paste, but it's not going to be a 32F birch bender I don't think....on the CP from near BOS to the lower elevations of CT it could be though.

 

I like MBY for paste at the moment.

[dryslot]

Isn't chartreuse a yellow-greenish color?  Maybe that's beyond 48.

 

Cerise to burgandy would work

[powderfreak]

May go out on the biggest limb I ever have but tongue in cheek firmly but before this winter is over there will be one map with chartuese

Oh definitely...whether it actually works out is another case lol. BTV has used chartreuse a few times I think, mostly in that December cut off bomb.

[dryslot]

But for a short while it did change the 6-8 region to 4-6, and so on. I was going to work on getting Kevin to call me a debbie again and predict it would be down to 1-3 by 6:00 o'clock.

I'd be enjoying this a lot more if I didn't have that wedding to contend with.... may have to stay at my sister in law's tomorrow night... good thing I love her

 

Enjoy the wedding with family and friends, Its only snow

[Ginx snewx]

Isn't Chartreuse greenish?

I am color blind whatever that 24-36 color is lol purple pink thingy

[SnowMan]

I am color blind whatever that 24-36 color is lol purple pink thingy

oh ok lol I was just thinking I was looking at the wrong map...or you had a version that was greater than 48 inches

[N. OF PIKE]

Yeah the BOX map looks normal again

 

I am hoisting a S.M.W based on that map

[ineedsnow]

if anything i think it would go straight to a warning to close in now

just looked at 12z suite... sorry if repeated elsewhere

 

Actually pretty decent consensus between 12Z NAM, 0Z Euro, and 12Z RGEM, with RGEM slightly warmer and throwing back qpf well west.

 

GFS looks the odd one out with warmer thermal profile

 

The Box Map looks good, if not a touch conservative in the Boston area imo... 12NAM/0Euro/12RGEM all put down > 6" for Boston.

 

If 12Z Euro stays the course, would think at least winter storm watches will go up for much of eastern MA from CT border north and ORH east, at least.

 

EDIT: meaning extend watches to include Boston

[ORH_wxman]

if anything i think it would go straight to a warning to close in now

 

 

Yeah they will upgrade to warnings this afternoon. Prob most of the interior east of the Berkshires...though you could argue to put the east slope of the Berks into the warning now I think. It will depend too on how bullish the Euro is on the westward expansion of precip. But the trend this morning on guidance has been a better defined mid-level circulation.

[Baroclinic Zone]

1-2"  Woohoo!

Still waiting on my 24.6" the Euro gave me the other day.  

[MBRI]

1-2"  Woohoo!

Still waiting on my 24.6" the Euro gave me the other day.  

THAT WAS A TYPO  2.46"

[Ginx snewx]

GFS bufkit is ugly, gawd tossed all the way to Greenland like a deflated football

[CoastalWx]

Boston is a real wild card.

[Lava Rock]

Dude, Relax, The are not missing out............lol

i thought i was a worry wort. lol

[Baroclinic Zone]

THAT WAS A TYPO  2.46"

i/o error     deflated totals

[HoarfrostHubb]

Cerise to burgandy would work

Leave the puce!

[ORH_wxman]

Boston is a real wild card.

 

 

2-8" sounds like a good range for them.

[CoastalWx]

2-8" sounds like a good range for them.

I just don't like having to rely on dynamics to cool 850. That's not a good way to run a snow event. We'll see what the euro has.

[SR Airglow]

Boston is a real wild card.

Agreed. Very glad I don't have to forecast for them.

 

I like the BOX map a lot as to where it sets up the cutoff. That strip of 4-6"/3-4" is going to be the battleground either way where a shift of 10-20 miles means everything. I'm encouraged that it's been ticking slightly cooler over the last couple of cycles on most of the guidance, but it's definitely too close for comfort.

 

As far as CT goes, NWCT is going up from my 1-3" to 3-5". Unclear as to what the rest of the map does, but I'm inclined to go to either 4-8" or 5-9" for NECT(I have 4-7" now). Rest of the map probably is good, don't see too many areas outside the NE corner going over 6".

[wxsniss]

Boston is a real wild card.

 

Agree, the prolific totals on 12zNAM/0zEuro/12zRGEM so dependent on that dynamic cooling signal 18z-21z at 850 that is missing on GFS.

[ORH_wxman]

If that bit of a stinger CCB is real, then I think you'll see the cooling trend continue...but if it is overdone, then don't be surprised to see it come back a shade warmer.

 

My WAG is that it is real. The deeper looking H5 trough would argue for a nice burst for several hours at the end. Bigger omega would keep the mid-level warm tongue from pushing as far north versus lighter precip before the end-game CCB.

 

But these are the types of details we are forced to watch in an imperfect setup.

[Chrisrotary12]

Put my thoughts on a map.  Not the easiest forecast eh?

 

[wxsniss]

Coastal just saw you posted same re: dynamic cooling in Boston area

 

You guys have an explanation for that degree of dynamic cooling? The precipitation does not seem that intense in that timeframe. Or is it just that the 850 temps are that close?

 

Hour 33 off NAM:

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

Looks good for ~5" in this area per guidance and BOX. I noticed they also have .01-.05" of icing nearly to the shoreline.

[tavwtby]

ALY just upped my area to 6-8, kinda getting towards now cast time...closing in on 12-16 hours til go time

[CoastalWx]

I have to deal with this when I get into work later and I'm getting work done at home so I can't say I looked hard. Since temps at 850 are near .5C, good lift will help to cool it and wet bulb it down to near or below 0C. But this is dependent on strong lift. If it's weaker or delayed, then you have the thanksgiving disaster storm inside 128. If it's just as modeled or strong, then it's isothermal paste. That's the problem. It's tough to go balls out and say dynamics will win! If it's off slightly you are screwed. However, we are aware that a forecast for 2-3" could turn into 7. It's one of those things where you aren't surprised it busted high, but it's difficult to shoot high unless you are confident.