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Possible Weekend Snowstorm, Jan 24 2015

ineedsnow

By ineedsnow,
in New England

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

I didn't think I was. I'm excited about a general 4-8 inch snowfall for quite a few of our posters who have suffered thru a pretty miserable stretch. This year..for me personally..I'm looking forward to it. 

 

Well the GFS looks awful - the NAM looks pretty awful... and the Euro is very borderline. Not exactly a very exciting storm. 

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

Well the GFS looks awful - the NAM looks pretty awful... and the Euro is very borderline. Not exactly a very exciting storm. 

Well I think what set him off this morning on his piss in our cheerios tirade was that he's not getting a ton of snow from this..and the Monday system is only a light event..and I think he was grumpy from working 2nd shift last evening,, up late when he got home..and overall was in a bad mood this morning..and took it out on me.

 

At any rate..let's see what todays trends bring. A Euro/Rgem combo seems like a good compromise..If we toss the warm bias GFS.. I guess you do have to factor the Nam in to some degree

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Well I think what set him off this morning on his piss in our cheerios tirade was that he's not getting a ton of snow from this..and the Monday system is only a light event..and I think he was grumpy from working 2nd shift last evening,, up late when he got home..and overall was in a bad mood this morning..and took it out on me.

At any rate..let's see what todays trends bring. A Euro/Rgem combo seems like a good compromise..If we toss the warm bias GFS.. I guess you do have to factor the Nam in to some degree

Not really. It's because this board has become unreadable at times with people like you who have no clue about things. Nothing has changed in my mind about this storm for about two days.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Just looking at stuff this morning - it seems like the GFS is still quite a bit warmer than the Euro which has been really locked into a solution. Euro's consistency is impressive for sure - can't really go against it.

Yeah it really hasn't wavered. A bit warmer though. We might have funny layers to deal with and dynamics play a role so I'm not warm and fuzzy with this storm unless maybe ORH-LWM or so.
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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Looks like a crappy setup may get me a half decent event.

OT but Scott, any issues aviation wise today BOS-PIT-BOS? Heading out to PIT shortly (waiting to board) but returning on the 7:15PM is what I'm mildly concerned about. Tyia!

Not working at the moment. Maybe a few bumps coming back?

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

Not working at the moment. Maybe a few bumps coming back?

Thank you! I'm most worries about a delay from some WAA at PIT around the time I leave.

I agree the pike is the demarcation between frustration and joy but these always surprise and I guess for forecasting considering how close it os it has huge bust potential on all sides.

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wxsniss

wxsniss

Posted
Posted

BOX brings the heavier snow all the way to BOS.

attachicon.gifimage.jpg

 

this Box map looks straight off an RGEM / EURO blend 

 

GFS is warmer, 0z and even more so 6z, don't see that dynamic cooling signal at 850 over the Northshore / metrowest seen on the RGEM / EURO

 

NAM is faster

 

3-5 seems a good starting point for Boston based on RGEM / EURO, but it's marginal and would wait for 12z to make sure this does not tick warmer like GFS or faster like NAM. Outside route 128 looks better right now for the warning criteria

 

Not the prettiest way to shrug off futility, but I guess beggars can't be choosers.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

Here's a really good met Phil's map

 

Matches up well with overnight guidance..though I think maybe you could move that 3-6 right to the coast north of BOS

 

The highest totals – around 6″ (with an outside shot at 8″ in a few locales) will be found primarily in the Worcester hills and parts of the hillier terrain of Northeast Connecticut. In these areas, just a bit of elevation (1000 feet or so) will allow temperatures to be just a bit colder throughout the event.

 

CapeCodWeather.Net ‏@capecodweather  17m

 

Ugly day coming up on Saturday….latest snowfall forecast: http://www.capecodweather.net/weather-blog/fast-moving-coastal-storm-brings-us-an-ugly-saturday/ …

B8CT3EECIAAK1C-.jpg
 
 
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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

That seems too high given how warm the model is at 850mb down this way. 

 

Looks like most of it on the south coast/S CT is on the front end...it flips between 30-33 hours.

 

This is 3 hour precip by 30 hours when it is still snowing across all of SNE minus the Cape...there's actually a bit before this 3 hour frame too, but not much:

 

 

P1_GZ_D5_PN_030_0000.gif

 

 

 

 

PT_PN_030_0000.gif

 

 

 

 

That said, I'm not convinced the front end is this good. Though the Euro was more bullish than the American guidance too with over a quarter inch qpf for the south coast before the flip

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SnowMan

SnowMan

Posted
Posted

 

Here's a really good met Phil's map

 

Matches up well with overnight guidance..though I think maybe you could move that 3-6 right to the coast north of BOS

 

The highest totals – around 6″ (with an outside shot at 8″ in a few locales) will be found primarily in the Worcester hills and parts of the hillier terrain of Northeast Connecticut. In these areas, just a bit of elevation (1000 feet or so) will allow temperatures to be just a bit colder throughout the event.

 

CapeCodWeather.Net ‏@capecodweather  17m

 

Ugly day coming up on Saturday….latest snowfall forecast: http://www.capecodweather.net/weather-blog/fast-moving-coastal-storm-brings-us-an-ugly-saturday/ …

B8CT3EECIAAK1C-.jpg
 
 

 

Congrats on finally finding a map that puts you in the higher totals :whistle:

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

Looks like most of it on the south coast/S CT is on the front end...it flips between 30-33 hours.

 

This is 3 hour precip by 30 hours when it is still snowing across all of SNE minus the Cape...there's actually a bit before this 3 hour frame too, but not much:

 

 

P1_GZ_D5_PN_030_0000.gif

 

 

 

 

PT_PN_030_0000.gif

 

 

 

 

That said, I'm not convinced the front end is this good. Though the Euro was more bullish than the American guidance too with over a quarter inch qpf for the south coast before the flip

 

Yeah I see what you mean about the front end thump there on the RGEM.

 

I'm looking at weatherbell and it seems like they have 2 hires Canadian models available. The 2.5km HRDPS and the 10km RGEM. The higher res one is very bullish on the front end thump. 

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