weathafella Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Nam is a snow bomb. Alas, the model blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 better then 18z i thought Its one blob of precip with not much to the NW behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Just looks funny. You aren't getting much thrown back west if you have a bog blob over SE MA. It's the same issue with the weaker solutions. It does try, but sometimes it's not easy to get significant moisture west unless it really develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Looking at my VV/RH product, it's awful. Luckily it's the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Just looks funny. You aren't getting much thrown back west if you have a bog blob over SE MA. It's the same issue with the weaker solutions. It does try, but sometimes it's not easy to get significant moisture west unless it really develops. a general 4-6" it seems for most of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 NAM looks putrid at H5...the trough is a little more neg tilted, but it doesn't really deepen much aloft. It's almost like a SWFE, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 NAM looks putrid at H5...the trough is a little more neg tilted, but it doesn't really deepen much aloft. It's almost like a SWFE, lol. One tiny closed contour at 850 mb. It's literally a line marking the 850 WF...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 H5 has been horrendous every run, Should be useful Saturday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 One tiny closed contour at 850 mb. It's literally a line marking the 850 WF...lol. When comparing it to the Euro, the Euro has the vortmax more consildated by the time it reaches S of SNE, the NAM has the vort energy all stretched out. It's hideous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Will be nice to see a Pastejob for everyone. Let's snow at 31-32 for the whole thing , snap some things and lay a nice base for the next couple storms next weekAmen. Lots of sugar past few seasons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The wintry qpf part f winter should start a ciimb back to respectability Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 NAM looks putrid at H5...the trough is a little more neg tilted, but it doesn't really deepen much aloft. It's almost like a SWFE, lol. Thats why I've been sort of pounding the front end thump idea down by NYC...there is not really a strong warm air push with this...the places that changeover do so because they get too close to the 850 low...in that case I said I could see NYC snowing from 06-14Z or so since surface winds are more or less NE the entire time, if any area gets under persistent moderate snow there is no way this system will overcome the mid-levels until that 850 low passes over or nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I noticed some accumulation maps being posted, so here are my thoughts. It's slightly on the lighter side, and I really hope I'm wrong because I love snow just as much as anyone here. I tried to be as objective as possible and come up with a first call map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 a general 4-6" it seems for most of the area. Yup, nobody is getting double digits in this one. Fast moving, marginal set up, lack of cold and really counting on an explosive low that stays true to modeled track. I think a high end advisory event is coming for many who deserve something decent (Ray, Jay and the I-495 crew look locked, hopefully Scott and others cash in) Biggest event of the season so far for many in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The wintry qpf part f winter should start a ciimb back to respectability Saturday. I'll access everything tmw night and make a final call, but just going by what I have read in here, I'd say 4-7" is a solid bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Lol...RGEM is basically isothermal at th height of it...look how close it is for the mid-levels...where it's heaviest is has sub-0C 850 temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 LOL, yeah I wonder where the dynamics are. 00z GFS may be a tad quicker, but doesn't look terribly different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Lol...RGEM is basically isothermal at th height of it...look how close it is for the mid-levels...where it's heaviest is has sub-0C 850 temps. That would actually get some accumulating snow back this way. lol That looks like an MTP to BOX track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 RGEM is actually a very good run for the pike crowd...only a couple hours of taint and it flips back to snow and is snowing very well at 48h when we reach the end of the run. It;s much longer duration than the NAM run This is snow through 48h..and its snowing in the CCB at this point with the R/S line collapsing SE in SE MA. 48h ptype Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Wow congrats Ray Ray on RGEM might hit a 10 spot on that and still snowing good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 RGEM is actually a very good run for the pike crowd...only a couple hours of taint and it flips back to snow and is snowing very well at 48h when we reach the end of the run. It;s much longer duration than the NAM run This is snow through 48h..and its snowing in the CCB at this point with the R/S line collapsing SE in SE MA. 48h ptype For where that surface low is tracking, It looks like we would get into the CCB as it looks to go thru the GOM instead of east of NS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 GFS looks like it cooled a smidge from 18z, but still on the warmer side of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Weenie map and cleaner precipitation type map, still accumulations at 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Looking better for southern New Hampshire weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 GFS has some weird dry pockets in the soundings from either subsidence or intense lift causing weird banding. Definitely something to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thomasnh Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 were getting about 2 inches thats it, this is a southern storm. Same for Monday wont problably see anything but a coating if that but will be nice to see light snow falling instead of rain. Hope we finally get our storm though maybe later on. Congrats to the guys to the south they so deserve this. I just hope James on the Cape gets his snow!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 were getting about 2 inches thats it, this is a southern storm. Same for Monday wont problably see anything but a coating if that but will be nice to see light snow falling instead of rain. Hope we finally get our storm though maybe later on. Congrats to the guys to the south they so deserve this. I just hope James on the Cape gets his snow!!!Pls stop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 rgem would even be good out this way would be nice to see it verify and make everyone happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 0z GFS looked like it cooled a bit. Solid QPF too. Perhaps a Ray jackpot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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