Possible Weekend Snowstorm, Jan 24 2015

[ORH_wxman]

I wouldn't put it past some to disagree with your first statement

 

Looking at the detailed GFS maps on weatherbell, it gets most up to +1 to +2 at 850 which is pretty warm compared to the others, which are less than +1 at the height of it. Would have to be overdoing the warmth fairly substantially, but we've seen the GFS do that before. I wouldn't toss it entirely, but I'm sort of skeptical that it gets that warm. Combine the GFS and the EURO and you have a 2-4/3-6" deal for many, which given what we've seen so far this winter, I think we'd all be happy about.

 

Tearing my hair out forecasting it, that's for sure. But, it's the most fun that way

 

 

For a 48-54 hour forecast, it's really not that substantial. It's even a bit less than that for areas like BOS. It looks like the warm layer there at 48h is 0.8C.

[CoastalWx]

BOS has a big layer that's like between 0.0C and 0.5C while VVs go nuts. Big margin of error there possible for snow...or should I say, high stakes.

[powderfreak]

What's up with the GFS?  Man that model is all over the place.  It had no impact at all with a SE miss up until 6z this morning...now at 18z its one of the furthest north with the precip and mid-level warmth.  I mean this new GFS swings all over the place, it seems wildly unstable.

[dryslot]

I like my snowfalls at 12.5"

 

This one is probably not the one then, I like whatever falls

[bobbutts]

This got my attention

[HoarfrostHubb]

This one is definitely not the one then, I like whatever falls

FYP

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

What's up with the GFS? Man that model is all over the place. It had no impact at all with a SE miss up until 6z this morning...now at 18z its one of the furthest north with the precip and mid-level warmth. I mean this new GFS swings all over the place, it seems wildly unstable.

Yup. I wouldn't feel good using it. 12z euro ticked cooler than 0z while gfs goes other way. upgrade ftl imo.

[powderfreak]

Yup. I wouldn't feel good using it. 12z euro ticked cooler than 0z while gfs goes other way. upgrade ftl imo.

 

I just wish they or someone else would run the old GFS, even just twice a day, for comparison purposes.  The higher resolution is probably causing it to over-react to certain parameters, so in the end it can come up with a completely different look each time.

[WinterWolf]

I said a couple days ago that the GFS swings all over like a Dam Ape, and a poster thought I wasn't accurate in my opinion on that. Glad Powderfreak agrees with me...the thing goes from one extreme to the other in 6 hours. I think the increased resolution has made it unstable moreso than ever, but I don't know anything about model physics so maybe that's way off lol.

[Ginx snewx]

I just wish they or someone else would run the old GFS, even just twice a day, for comparison purposes. The higher resolution is probably causing it to over-react to certain parameters, so in the end it can come up with a completely different look each time.

GEFS control run?

[SR Airglow]

Not that it matters an enormous amount at this range, but only one of the twelve individual GEFS from 18z is equal to or warmer than the op as far as 850s go. Most are between the GFS and the EURO and a few definitely have EUROlike solutions. 

[Damage In Tolland]

LOL..Ryan painstakingly and purposely drew the line right to the east..It will kill him when we end up in that zone

Ryan Hanrahan ‏@ryanhanrahan  1h

1 hour ago

Here's what we're going with now - but man this is a tough call. Worst during the day Saturday.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Not that it matters an enormous amount at this range, but only one of the twelve individual GEFS from 18z is equal to or warmer than the op as far as 850s go. Most are between the GFS and the EURO and a few definitely have EUROlike solutions.

It does matter....we chuck the op.

[CoastalWx]

Actually, Harvey had that too. Too bad for those near exit 68.

[Damage In Tolland]

Actually, Harvey had that too. Too bad for those near exit 68.

Joe D > them?

[powderfreak]

Actually, Harvey had that too. Too bad for those near exit 68.

 

East slope side for the win? 

[SR Airglow]

We came up with this earlier, think it might be a little too high in some spots but we work as a team and this was the consensus between the three of us. Specifically, I want to pull the 2-5" north a bit, shrink the 4-7", and perhaps pull the 2-5" to the whole coastline. We decided to keep it 3-6" though because SWCT seems to always grab weenie bands in situations like this with front end and models have been trending stronger on front end so it's better to be a little high than low on that I think.

 

For everyone else, I like the BOX map almost verbatim, perhaps 3-5" in some of their 2-4" spots but that's about the only change I'd make.

[CT Rain]

 

LOL..Ryan painstakingly and purposely drew the line right to the east..It will kill him when we end up in that zone

Ryan Hanrahan ‏@ryanhanrahan  1h

1 hour ago

Here's what we're going with now - but man this is a tough call. Worst during the day Saturday.

 

 

Many people were involved in that decision including Joe D, Scott, and Phil. 

[Damage In Tolland]

We came up with this earlier, think it might be a little too high in some spots but we work as a team and this was the consensus between the three of us. 

 

For MA, I like the BOX map almost verbatim, perhaps 3-5" in some of their 2-4" spots but that's about the only change I'd make.

2/10 of ice accretion?? Huh?

[CoastalWx]

I think that map is spot on.

[Ginx snewx]

Many people were involved in that decision including Joe D, Scott, and Phil.

NWS chat FTW

[SR Airglow]

2/10 of ice accretion?? Huh?

First off, up to. Secondly, all three of us don't think low level cold is going anywhere, you can see it hanging on well on the hires models which don't warm a lot of the interior above 32 either at all or not until several hours after the 850s have gone above freezing. Not sure if it would be IP or ZR, but it's worth mentioning.

[Ginx snewx]

I think that map is spot on.

we shall grade your collective ability Sunday, looks good, five plus does allow for latitude

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Deff continues to feel like an 80s winter where 2-5" is a good storm.

[Ginx snewx]

First off, up to. Secondly, all three of us don't think low level cold is going anywhere, you can see it hanging on well on the hires models which don't warm a lot of the interior above 32 either at all or not until several hours after the 850s have gone above freezing. Not sure if it would be IP or ZR, but it's worth mentioning.

sure is, there are sigs for that in Bufkit in spots, this is IJD GFS Bufkit

150124/1200Z 42 VRB01KT 30.1F SNPL 12:1| 0.3|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.026 12:1| 0.3|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.03 87| 5| 8

150124/1500Z 45 03004KT 32.1F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.139 12:1| 0.3|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.16 0| 0|100

[Damage In Tolland]

I think that map is spot on.

You wouldn't dare disagree . Even if you really did

[HoarfrostHubb]

I could see a bit o icing in spots. Nothing like Sunday though. But enough to mention it

[CoastalWx]

I couldn't agree with that fine line on the western end of the 5+ any better.  Moosup > Tolland.

[CoastalWx]

SR, not a bad first guess either.

[TalcottWx]

Here's my first crack at a snowfall map. I don't have thousands watching my forecast like Ryan so I'm a little more bullish. I just think the warm air aloft is full of sh1t and will dynamically cool.