Possible Weekend Snowstorm, Jan 24 2015

[AlaskaETC]

NAM looks great for you guys. Fingers crossed.

[CoastalWx]

It's purdy to look at.

 

It always is.

[CT Rain]

I'm still pretty meh on this one. Having such an ugly looking setup really reduces the margin for error. Obviously mixing is a concern with the lack of a cold/dry high to the north but having such an unimpressive baroclinic zone really limits the storm's ability to develop a robust precip shield to the north of the low. Odds favor a tighter precip shield with the have nots outnumbering the haves by a good margin. 

[ORH_wxman]

When I think of thread the needle, I usually think of a situation where if you are too far west you miss and if you are too far right you miss.

 

It's all metaphoric, so you could say that it is thread the needle to have everything right to get the storm up the coast at all.

 

Again, what Steve (and I) believe is that temps are not as a big an issue as missing OTS.

 

 

 

"It's all metaphoric, so you could say that it is thread the needle to have everything right to get the storm up the coast at all."

 

Yes, this is what I was trying to say in an earlier post.  When you get a sig storm, things almost always have to go just right.  Also, I realize that this slipping east is a concern for most...and perhaps this has even less wiggle room than some other events.

 

Wouldn't it be Ironic, if this outperforms the next Tuesday system even though next week looks better on paper right now?  Still a chance we get skunked all together by both....that too is in the back of my mind.

 

 

Again...semantics.

 

It doesn't change the reasoning if we call it a "less margin for error than usual" storm vs "thread the needle".

 

Compact precip shield, no blocking, fast flow, and only an "OK" airmass. Word it as you like, but this is different from storms like 1/12/11 or 2/8/13 or even a 12/19/09 or 1/2/09 when there's some combination of a better airmass, blocking/slower flow and large overrunning WCB precip shield (a good high to the north can help this).

 

The good news is that a lot of models have this in a good spot right now and we are starting to get close enough that we might actually start believing them. But I can still see this screwing up easily...most likely would be a miss obviously, but you tuck this a bit west and all of the sudden, it quickly becomes a N ORH county/Monads/Berkshires storm with a lot of rain everywhere else.

[Damage In Tolland]

I'm glad I never bought into this one. Euro will shift east today..Good luck Ginx

 

Ryan Hanrahan ‏@ryanhanrahan  11s

11 seconds ago

Still don't like the setup for Saturday's storm. A few missing pieces make me think it will disappoint snow loves though it's still early.

[CT Rain]

Hayden had a really nice discussion this morning. Really sums up my thoughts well. 

[Nygmen]

I'm glad I never bought into this one. Euro will shift east today..Good luck Ginx

 

Ryan Hanrahan ‏@ryanhanrahan  11s

11 seconds ago

Still don't like the setup for Saturday's storm. A few missing pieces make me think it will disappoint snow loves though it's still early.

dude we get u dont like the threat...posting someone tweeting agreeing with you with no reasoning behind isnt gunna change anyone elses mind

[CoastalWx]

It's fine to have both thoughts. It's a tight margin of error which is what we have been saying since yesterday morning.  

[Ginx snewx]

Its probably not going to snow in Manchester, Monson, Marshfield, and yes that includes Moosup. OTS

K

[robertgny]

who cares about a tweet?

I'm glad I never bought into this one. Euro will shift east today..Good luck Ginx

 

Ryan Hanrahan ‏@ryanhanrahan  11s

11 seconds ago

Still don't like the setup for Saturday's storm. A few missing pieces make me think it will disappoint snow loves though it's still early.

[CTWeatherFreak]

dude we get u dont like the threat...posting someone tweeting agreeing with you with no reasoning behind isnt gunna change anyone elses mind

Ryan Hanrahan is not just  'Someone'!!!

[Damage In Tolland]

dude we get u dont like the threat...posting someone tweeting agreeing with you with no reasoning behind isnt gunna change anyone elses mind

Why do you think it  will happen Plaxico ..(scientific reasoning why it will snow on Long Island) ?

[CoastalWx]

who cares about a tweet?

 

It's a tweet with a reason behind it.

[Baroclinic Zone]

But one does not need to continue harping on their view when they've made it abundantly clear where they stand.

[Damage In Tolland]

It's a tweet with a reason behind it.

THE NYC weenies have now invaded SNE threads. UGH

[Nygmen]

what lol???? what model doesnt give me at least a little snow rn...pls show me    

[CoastalWx]

Bottom line is that it's about 84 hrs out so there is some room to shift around. Nobody should be dismissing it or locking anything in. Today's guidance should be rather telling as we will be entering the critical window to discern any trends.

[Bostonseminole]

Why do you think it  will happen Plaxico ..(scientific reasoning why it will snow on Long Island) ?

 

I think you need to step away, take some time off, spend some time with family.  Comeback refreshed.

[Ginx snewx]

But one does not need to continue harping on their view when they've made it abundantly clear where they stand.

he may be overlooking tomorrow(see RGEM)while looking for any tweet to support his stand, whats interesting is he quoted Ryans tweet which has nothing to do with his OTS claim. 

[ORH_wxman]

Bottom line is that it's about 84 hrs out so there is some room to shift around. Nobody should be dismissing it or locking anything in. Today's guidance should be rather telling as we will be entering the critical window to discern any trends.

 

 

Yeah today and tonight's runs are pretty big...we'll be getting inside that 72 hour window.

 

 

People should cease the pedantic analysis of who thinks it will snow and who won't until we are a bit closer.  

[Ginx snewx]

Bottom line is that it's about 84 hrs out so there is some room to shift around. Nobody should be dismissing it or locking anything in. Today's guidance should be rather telling as we will be entering the critical window to discern any trends.

72

[donsutherland1]

dude we get u dont like the threat...posting someone tweeting agreeing with you with no reasoning behind isnt gunna change anyone elses mind

A few quick things:

 

Ryan Hanrahan is a very good meteorologist. He didn't say "no snow," but that the storm could "disappoint" at least some snow lovers.

 

His point about "missing pieces" is important. One typically wants to see blocking for blockbuster events. So, even with a lot of uncertainty this far out, the pattern would argue that a moderate event would be more likely than a blockbuster event.

 

Finally, parts of Connecticut e.g. Litchfield County could well see little or no snow, even if a moderate snowfall blankets the such cities as Bridgeport, New Haven, and Groton.

[CT Valley Snowman]

A few quick things:

Ryan Hanrahan is a very good meteorologist. He didn't say "no snow," but that the storm could "disappoint" at least some snow lovers.

His point about "missing pieces" is important. One typically wants to see blocking for blockbuster events. So, even with a lot of uncertainty this far out, the pattern would argue that a moderate event would be more likely than a blockbuster event.

Finally, parts of Connecticut e.g. Litchfield County could well see little or no snow, even if a moderate snowfall blankets the such cities as Bridgeport, New Haven, and Groton.

good post. no one has ruled anything out completely yet, just explaining why the setup makes things more difficult

[codfishsnowman]

isnt that three snowy runs in a row for most folks on the nam?

[Bostonseminole]

isnt that three snowy runs in a row for most folks on the nam?

the nam trend is good, but still outside of its usefulness,  most mets start to use it around <54 hr or even less.. but it has done well in some storms in the past so can't be totally discounted IMHO 

[Ginx snewx]

It's a tweet with a reason behind it.

With no mention of OTS, if Kevins argument was marginal airmass with no baroclinicity then its right to retweet but to retweet and then say Euro goes east based on Ryans thoughts makes zero sense.

[JC-CT]

You can't give detailed thoughts on a storm evolution in 144 characters

[CoastalWx]

Looks like the 12Z will throw QPF a bit NW of 6z. All in all model agreement on something near 40/70 give or take 50 miles is pretty good.

[ORH_wxman]

Looks like the 12Z will throw QPF a bit NW of 6z. All in all model agreement on something near 40/70 give or take 50 miles is pretty good.

 

Yep, slight tick back west...but still SE of the model consensus at the moment. Of course, we'll see what the GGEM/Ukie/Euro do in the next couple hours.

[TalcottWx]

Yep, slight tick back west...but still SE of the model consensus at the moment. Of course, we'll see what the GGEM/Ukie/Euro do in the next couple hours.

The consistency of that model thus far is horrendous. The GFS showing no signs of being valuable at this range. I might weigh the GEM higher in the medium range right now until it improves.

 

My hunch is with Ray on this one. I'm leaning on a track inside the benchmark right now I think. It's going to be bombing out, wrapped up, and ferocious for a time. Best part is the rapid intensification may be perfect for us. I think our first plowable snowstorm is en route. Whether it be the first system or the second.