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Possible Weekend Snowstorm, Jan 24 2015

ineedsnow

By ineedsnow,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

RGEM cools by hr 54 at 850. It also tends to be warm and amp a bit at the end of the run. 00z tonight and more likely tomorrow is better for it.

 

 

Yep, 00z RGEM is really the first good idea we will have from that model...it's runs today though give us an indication that it is favoring a bit more amped unlike the NAM.

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SR Airglow

SR Airglow

Posted
Posted

GFS a furnace at 850

Much stronger with precip and better looking aloft though I thought. It tried to close off H5 a couple of times which would have been excellent if it did verify. Given it's history with midlevel temps, I'm inclined to discount it in that regard in favor of a blend of the rest of the guidance, but we'll see.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

If this becomes a NNE event and screws SNE, you're going to have a mutiny of angry weenies at your doorsteps.

 

 

He doesn't control the weather. :lol:

 

 

At any rate, that's a good run for SNE if you think it muight be a shade warm aloft...which is certainly possible.

 

Euro looks pretty strong right now. But it's admittedly going to be a close call aloft.

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SR Airglow

SR Airglow

Posted
Posted

He doesn't control the weather. :lol:

 

 

At any rate, that's a good run for SNE if you think it muight be a shade warm aloft...which is certainly possible.

 

Euro looks pretty strong right now. But it's admittedly going to be a close call aloft.

I wouldn't put it past some to disagree with your first statement :)

 

Looking at the detailed GFS maps on weatherbell, it gets most up to +1 to +2 at 850 which is pretty warm compared to the others, which are less than +1 at the height of it. Would have to be overdoing the warmth fairly substantially, but we've seen the GFS do that before. I wouldn't toss it entirely, but I'm sort of skeptical that it gets that warm. Combine the GFS and the EURO and you have a 2-4/3-6" deal for many, which given what we've seen so far this winter, I think we'd all be happy about.

 

Tearing my hair out forecasting it, that's for sure. But, it's the most fun that way ;)

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NorEastermass128

NorEastermass128

Posted
Posted

a bit overdone, maybe 128 south/east toast on this run

Nah. You and myself are fine with this. Will noted earlier that the maps make the warmth at 850 seem more impressive than it really is. The 850 temp may be 0.5C at BOS and within that range for tens of miles either side for example.

A true tippy isothermal blue bomb for metro west. A good base builder for us.

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