Possible Weekend Snowstorm, Jan 24 2015

[ORH_wxman]

Lol. Too early?? It's 36 hours till stArt time. We've honed in final solutions this afternoon

 

There's still room for 30 mile wiggles given we are at the 48h mark...which could make a lot of difference.

[TalcottWx]

Lol. Too early?? It's 36 hours till stArt time. We've honed in final solutions this afternoon

 

 

There's still room for 30 mile wiggles given we are at the 48h mark...which could make a lot of difference.

This ^

[J Paul Gordon]

When does it really wind up on Saturday. Yes, Kevin, I believe in Santa Claus, so it's 6-8 (or 5-9) locked. But even 2" in hilly old Worcester can be interesting if its coming down hard enough and the plows/sanders decide that it isn't really necessary to go to work on a Saturday.

[Zeus]

A is what Kevin tends to be.  Gets all wound up over things and lets his enthusiasm cloud his intelligence.

 

A Debbie is a "Debbie Downer" and is what Ryan tends to be to temper the s   Yin for Yang

 

"Debbie" is joining "tepid" on the banned speech list.

 

Also, you may no longer say "chances" when talking about favorable-looking opportunities for winter storm impacts in less certain ranges of time. You have to say "maybe babies" instead. Ex: "The first week of February has some maybe babies in it."

 

It has been decreed.

[SR Airglow]

I'll probably make a map this afternoon only because we usually try to do a first call 36-48 hours in advance and I'm reasonably confident for CT as to where this is heading, but I wouldn't hold it against anyone that waited until tomorrow morning to put something out.

 

Pretty much think the GGEM is a good blend between the GFS and the EURO right now and will probably go with something close to that. 3-5, 4-6 sort of stuff with a 5-9 jackpot somewhere probably in the area that Will outlined and possibly a bit south of that given I'm a little skeptical of the super warm solutions verifying.

[dryslot]

Some have not learned from earlier events

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Some have not learned from earlier events

Some never will.

[HoarfrostHubb]

"Debbie" is joining "tepid" on the banned speech list.

 

Also, you may no longer say "chances" when talking about favorable-looking opportunities for winter storm impacts in less certain ranges of time. You have to say "maybe babies" instead. Ex: "The first week of February has some maybe babies in it."

 

It has been decreed.

 

Can we add "weak sauce" to this?

[Zeus]

Can we add "weak sauce" to this?

 

How else, then, will I describe your gentleman's relish?

 

But, I kid.

 

We must focus on the weekend storm. Salt the roads. Light the triple wick votive candles. Purchase whiskey. Ignore coworkers. Slaughter the fattened calf. The Great White Slop cometh, and it cometh for some. Weak sauce indeed. Advisory level weak sauce.

[The 4 Seasons]

Winter Storm Watches up.

[NorEastermass128]

Winter Storm Watches up.

4-7" is the call right now in that watch. Sounds good and is a KU for this winter here.

I think the consensus is for a moderate storm for those in the small sweet spot, which is a moving target right now.

[TalcottWx]

Digesting the euro, that should be ripping snow at BOS. Even Scott too?

 

I think the high jackpot area will be 6-10". Mid level tracks look good.

[HoarfrostHubb]

This could be my second biggest storm of the season.

 

Thanksgiving Eve being the biggest

[J Paul Gordon]

Okay..... I'm a believer.... it will be a snowy Saturday wedding. Since it is at 11 and the reception is in the same place (very low key) I may get home and up my hill before it gets dark..... IF the street is plowed!

[Quincy]

Marginal thermal profiles make this a tricky forecast for HFD-IJD-SFZ, even TOL gets tainted a bit I think.

[J Paul Gordon]

Marginal thermal profiles make this a tricky forecast for HFD-IJD-SFZ, even TOL gets tainted a bit I think.

Tolland? On the massif? Impossible!

[HIPPYVALLEY]

This could be my second biggest storm of the season.

Thanksgiving Eve being the biggest

BOX going 2-4" for you 1-2" out this way. I'm almost inclined to take the under on that.

[N. OF PIKE]

Basically the only trend we dont want is significantly weaker

[HoarfrostHubb]

BOX going 2-4" for you 1-2" out this way. I'm almost inclined to take the under on that.

Yup  I could see a 2-4" in this area.  Pretty close though.  I can taste the higher amounts, but depends on a shift one way or the other

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Basically the only trend we dont want is significantly weaker

I think that is the biggest concern and that can change as late as Friday night on the models.

[ORH_wxman]

Euro ensembles look pretty good. 980 between ACK and the BM...not too dissimilar from the OP.

[TalcottWx]

Euro ensembles look pretty good. 980 between ACK and the BM...not too dissimilar from the OP.

That makes me feel a whole lot better now.

[SR Airglow]

Watches out. Sort of surprised they didn't go all the way to the coast in metro BOS/north shore considering it's not coastal influences that are going to warm those areas up and that they'll get the bestof the CCB, but overall pretty solid positioning I think.

[JC-CT]

Watches out. Sort of surprised they didn't go all the way to the coast in metro BOS/north shore considering it's not coastal influences that are going to warm those areas up and that they'll get the bestof the CCB, but overall pretty solid positioning I think.

 

Figured they had enough time to wait for another cycle, maybe.

[ORH_wxman]

Watches out. Sort of surprised they didn't go all the way to the coast in metro BOS/north shore considering it's not coastal influences that are going to warm those areas up and that they'll get the bestof the CCB, but overall pretty solid positioning I think.

 

 

They need 50% confidence for 6"+ for a watch...so it's not surprising they left the coast out...even if they stay snow, its a bit warmer for a time which may make it very sloppy.

 

Regardless, the watch looks like it is in a decent spot. They'll probably move it to the coast overnight tonight if it still looks good on the CCB for BOS on the 00z runs.

[WinterWolf]

Box going with the whole Elevation thing, and that places that exceed 5 inches could have powerline problems/Tree problems from the Heavy wet Snow.  From what most were saying on here..it wasn't looking to Pasty for interior CT.  And I wasn't thinking the Elevation idea was going to matter to much with this event.  But???

[mahk_webstah]

Euro ensembles look pretty good. 980 between ACK and the BM...not too dissimilar from the OP.

dee[ for an ensemble mean

[SR Airglow]

New BOX map out, looks excellent overall I think.

[JC-CT]

New BOX map out, looks excellent overall I think.

 

Kevin approves

[CoastalWx]

SR, near BOS is the mid level issue, but N shore would be better. Higher el obviously have the low level cold and no surprise the watch is there. You are also at the mercy of the stupid county zones, so the ideas aren't going to be clearly displayed when bounded by county zone outlines. I don't understand the watch fetish anyways. It doesn't change how much snow you are going to get.