Possible Weekend Snowstorm, Jan 24 2015

[Zeus]

Yeah, there is no chance I am seeing ZR.

 

It's incredibly difficult for the coastal plain to get freezing rain for a sustained period of time... I see it forecast by models and worded into NWS forecasts substantially more often than I've actually encountered it in real life.

 

It's kind of like snow, in that regard.

[40/70 Benchmark]

GEM has backed off, and the 00z Euro was less robust than 12z, too. 

 

GFS is obviosuly more intense because it had cirrus yesterday.

Consensus is forming.

 

 

Well I hope noone was thinking the Euro with 12+ yesterday was right.

 

To me..this has always been  4-8 loll it 10 storm in area of "best snow"

[Baroclinic Zone]

that was a ten day total

Still waiting for it.  

[Guvna]

Something to keep in the back of your mind. 12 km NAM freezing rain from Wright Weather

Never happen.....

[CoastalWx]

Definitely a tick east there.

[weathafella]

984 on the bm

[CoastalWx]

It's incredibly difficult for the coastal plain to get freezing rain for a sustained period of time... I see it forecast by models and worded into NWS forecasts substantially more often than I've actually encountered it in real life.

 

It's kind of like snow, in that regard.

 

Climo with that track argues anything but, lol. 

[ORH_wxman]

Euro looked a bit colder. But still not the full on phase we saw yesterday. This is turning into like a 8-10 hour quick hitter.

Still a decent event though for many on the 12 run. Probably high end advisory with low end warning stuff for ORH to LWM.

[weathafella]

And not the crazy bomb of prior runs which may bode better Monday.

[Ginx snewx]

It's incredibly difficult for the coastal plain to get freezing rain for a sustained period of time... I see it forecast by models and worded into NWS forecasts substantially more often than I've actually encountered it in real life.

It's kind of like snow, in that regard.

it only takes .005 to create havoc, ask the coastal areas from southern Ct to NJ

[Damage In Tolland]

Euro looked a bit colder. But still not the full on phase we saw yesterday. This is turning into like a 8-10 hour quick hitter.

Still a decent event though for many on the 12 run. Probably high end advisory with low end warning stuff for ORH to LWM.

Why not low end warning farther SW?

[CoastalWx]

I'd take. Some nice paste here. 

[CoastalWx]

It has a decent back edge CCB from what I can tell. Not like yesterday, but sufficient enough as modeled.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Definitely a tick east there.

Probably a 2-5/3-6" deal, ultimately. 

[Damage In Tolland]

I'd take. Some nice paste here.

Still wet interior too?

[ineedsnow]

The quicker timing of the euro may be good for monday

[Ginx snewx]

Still waiting for it.

well seeing as day 10 would be Jan 30th you better roll your eyes back in your head, of course you would not get that but it doesn't matter as you are totally unemotionaly invested, people who roll their eyes are never showing emotions.

[CoastalWx]

Still wet interior too?

 

I don't think it will be too wet, but this isn't fluff. Might be the type to be a bit sticky to trees etc..but not like damaging paste. This is out your way. Warm 850-750 temps probably help make it wetter.

[Zeus]

it only takes .005 to create havoc, ask the coastal areas from southern Ct to NJ

 

That's true, but I spent the first 18 years of my life on the NJ shore. I can say with relative certainty that ground temps were very rarely cold enough to freeze rain, and when they were, the precip was usually snow. It's just a rare combo, is all. Not impossible, just extremely rare.

[SR Airglow]

It has a decent back edge CCB from what I can tell. Not like yesterday, but sufficient enough as modeled.

Yeah it's pretty nice. Would probably be warning level snows for you on the backend. Don't want it going any more east though.

[CoastalWx]

Kind of a catch 22 here, but we'll need dynamics too. Lose that, and it's a sloppy slush cover. You don't want it too far east either. Thread the needle.

[Damage In Tolland]

I don't think it will be too wet, but this isn't fluff. Might be the type to be a bit sticky to trees etc..but not like damaging paste. This is out your way. Warm 850-750 temps probably help make it wetter.

As long as it's got some franks n beans to it. Trees coming down would be a close second

[Ginx snewx]

Probably a 2-5/3-6" deal, ultimately.

that's advisory, Will said low end warning for you

[SR Airglow]

Probably a 2-5/3-6" deal, ultimately. 

Euro's 5-9" for you verbatim.

[40/70 Benchmark]

that's advisory, Will said low end warning for you

 6" is low end warning.

[Damage In Tolland]

Won't be long till Ryan posts about something he doesn't like

[jamesnichols89]

Scott, do you think CC turns from rain to snow and then how much on the backend?

[Zeus]

Kind of a catch 22 here, but we'll need dynamics too. Lose that, and it's a sloppy slush cover. You don't want it too far east either. Thread the needle.

 

Yeah, unless this baby bombs out hard, it's tough for it to produce in a less than ideal setup. But I'm beating a dead horse; that's already been stated and stated hard.

 

It's relevant NOW because of what it may mean for what is arguably a more intriguing setup for Monday.

[Ginx snewx]

That's true, but I spent the first 18 years of my life on the NJ shore. I can say with relative certainty that ground temps were very rarely cold enough to freeze rain, and when they were, the precip was usually snow. It's just a rare combo, is all. Not impossible, just extremely rare.

NAM is on crack I guess, we'll yea I should have never posted that, what was I thinking. Save a horse ride the Euro

[Ginx snewx]

Won't be long till Ryan posts about something he doesn't like

he is pretty far west