Possible Weekend Snowstorm, Jan 24 2015

[40/70 Benchmark]

Canadian isn't very impressive until it gets past our latitude.

 Would fit the pattern of the season.

If the Euro does that, advisory it is.

[Damage In Tolland]

Good thing you're not invested Kevin until 7 pm tonight...cuz latest trends seem to be diminishing this system on guidance.

The do? The GFS is the best run yet and as all the mets said it's probably still too far SE

[40/70 Benchmark]

The do? The GFS is the best run yet and it's probably still too far SE

GEM has backed off, and the 00z Euro was less robust than 12z, too. 

 

GFS is obviosuly more intense because it had cirrus yesterday.

Consensus is forming.

[Damage In Tolland]

GEM has backed off, and the 00z Euro was less robust than 12z, too. 

 

GFS is obviosuly more intense because it had cirrus yesterday.

Consensus is forming.

Well I hope noone was thinking the Euro with 12+ yesterday was right.

 

To me..this has always been  4-8 loll it 10 storm in area of "best snow"

[WinterWolf]

 Would fit the pattern of the season.

If the Euro does that, advisory it is.

I sure would.  And the Euro was heading that way last night with the sloppy phase, and I believe it will continue that trend today as well.

I agree that Advisory will do it for most if the Euro follows with a less powerful system.  Hopefully the Euro jumps on board with the Monday deal...that would be very nice.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Well I hope noone was thinking the Euro with 12+ yesterday was right.

 

To me..this has always been  4-8 loll it 10 storm in area of "best snow"

I'm still looking for my 24.6" bulls-eye.

[NorEastermass128]

Well I hope noone was thinking the Euro with 12+ yesterday was right.

 

To me..this has always been  4-8 loll it 10 storm in area of "best snow"

Agreed.  It may be a very narrow area too, relatively speaking. 

[CT Valley Snowman]

yes we may be trending towards a 3-to 6 inch snowfall consensus for many, let's see what the euro has to say.

[powderfreak]

How is the GGEM so warm?  This seems excessive to me at H85 with a developing cyclone well to the south.

 

 

 

[CoastalWx]

Because, the low near Montreal floods aloft with warmer air. So the 850 circulation is doing nothing, but pulling down garbage air from NNE. You also have a warm srn stream system also moving up from the south. It's just not a good antecedent airmass, but good enough in some areas especially just inland. Ironically, this system isn't really marine taint that screws SE MA. It's temps aloft.

[WinterWolf]

Well I hope noone was thinking the Euro with 12+ yesterday was right.

 

To me..this has always been  4-8 loll it 10 storm in area of "best snow"

If this doesn't wrap up real Nuke style, there isn't going to be any 8 inch deals in Most of SNE, if latest guidance is correct.  Now if the Euro goes Ballistic again, then perhaps.  But the Euro was trending away from that last night, and my guess is it will continue that today.

 

Then consensus has been forming that this doesn't phase cleanly, thus taking too long to really get Rocking, and with no Cold Feed that really hurts us.  But who knows.  Euro will be telling in 30 minutes.

[ORH_wxman]

How is the GGEM so warm? This seems excessive to me at H85 with a developing cyclone well to the south.

cmc_pr6_slp_t850_neng_10.png

Pretty close to the GFS actually. It's believable with zero high to the north. It does crash SE but that initial warm surge has nothing opposing it.

[powderfreak]

Because, the low near Montreal floods aloft with warmer air. So the 850 circulation is doing nothing, but pulling down garbage air from NNE. You also have a warm srn stream system also moving up from the south. It's just not a good antecedent airmass, but good enough in some areas especially just inland. Ironically, this system isn't really marine taint that screws SE MA. It's temps aloft.

Ahh I didn't see that low to the north. I just figured a rapidly deepening system would tug the cold south not north as it's not like a ridiculous SE jet or anything, but it does look like the air in the low levels is pretty chilly.

Hopefully you guys can wet bulb that isothermal or at least get smoked by the CCB.

[powderfreak]

Pretty close to the GFS actually. It's believable with zero high to the north. It does crash SE but that initial warm surge has nothing opposing it.

Seems to be a theme this winter. Like in that last event when we started as rain like 24 hours after being -20F...and had to dynamically change to heavy wet snow.

[SnowGoose69]

I'm wondering if the best chance with this is a surprise front end blast for 5-6 hours, nothing really shows it now but it's something to root for.

[HoarfrostHubb]

If this doesn't wrap up real Nuke style, there isn't going to be any 8 inch deals in Most of SNE, if latest guidance is correct.  Now if the Euro goes Ballistic again, then perhaps.  But the Euro was trending away from that last night, and my guess is it will continue that today.

 

Then consensus has been forming that this doesn't phase cleanly, thus taking too long to really get Rocking, and with no Cold Feed that really hurts us.  But who knows.  Euro will be telling in 30 minutes.

One run does not equal a trend.

[ORH_wxman]

I'm wondering if the best chance with this is a surprise front end blast for 5-6 hours, nothing really shows it now but it's something to root for.

That portion of the storm is probably going to not have great precip rates with no opposing high to the north.

[jamesnichols89]

I have a feeling our best chance at accumulating snowfall is on the backside of the low.

[MarkO]

Noyes thinking this isn't much ado about anything. Sliver of 2-4 with 5 lolli's ;

http://www.mattnoyes.net/forecast/2015/01/daily-forecast-video-so-what-are-the-chances-a-saturday-storm-hits-your-community.html

[Zeus]

That portion of the storm is probably going to not have great precip rates with no opposing high to the north.

 

And that's where temp profiles remain cold enough to support snow on the front end.

 

I think the areas that see the heaviest precip may well be rain for a portion of the onset, especially along & SE of 95-6-84

[Ginx snewx]

Something to keep in the back of your mind. 12 km NAM freezing rain from Wright Weather

[WinterWolf]

One run does not equal a trend.

Yes, but NAM, Canadian and Euro all are backing down on this intensity and with no cold air source, that's not a nice trend imo.  But let's see what the Euro shows?

[Ginx snewx]

Ahh I didn't see that low to the north. I just figured a rapidly deepening system would tug the cold south not north as it's not like a ridiculous SE jet or anything, but it does look like the air in the low levels is pretty chilly.

Hopefully you guys can wet bulb that isothermal or at least get smoked by the CCB.

you missed the dozens of posts about the LP to the north

[HoarfrostHubb]

Noyes thinking this isn't much ado about anything. Sliver of 2-4 with 5 lolli's ;

http://www.mattnoyes.net/forecast/2015/01/daily-forecast-video-so-what-are-the-chances-a-saturday-storm-hits-your-community.html

I can't argue too much with that thinking. 

[CoastalWx]

Yeah, there is no chance I am seeing ZR.

[Ginx snewx]

I'm still looking for my 24.6" bulls-eye.

that was a ten day total

[CoastalWx]

Euro seems a bit quicker to me.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Yes, but NAM, Canadian and Euro all are backing down on this intensity and with no cold air source, that's not a nice trend imo.  But let's see what the Euro shows?

I think if the 12z Euro shows the same or weaker/further east then that is the case.

Not a big storm anyway

[Baroclinic Zone]

I have a feeling my only chance at accumulating snowfall is on the backside of the low.

FYP

[weathafella]

Euro saves the day!