Possible Weekend Snowstorm, Jan 24 2015

[SR Airglow]

I know this may be too early to ask, but when do you think watches may go up?

Would be this afternoon if they were going to go up.

[ORH_wxman]

I know this may be too early to ask, but when do you think watches may go up?

 

 

Probably not until late tonight (the overnight package)....unless they get 50% confidence of 6"+ by later this afternoon.

[Ginx snewx]

Funny no one has mentioned that

every one is snarky lately, lots of egos on Twitter today. I am still pissed at NWS NYC for Sunday,Ryan nailed it as well as some here. This upcoming storm could be trouble for NWS too. Could be a rain to heavy flip causing big traffic issue's. If it stays as modeled I'd warn right to the coast regardless of criteria. The warning system is broken. DOT better be on the ball, weekend storms mean calling in OT help. Spend the money that you haven't had to use.

[CT Rain]

If the GFS is right, it's more concentrated further SE IMO. You aren't getting a ton of moisture advection when it's forced out in one area leaving a narrow CCB. But, that is only speaking of the GFS verbatim. 

 

Yeah was just throwing out some thoughts. It seems like when you're relying on the CCB you get a really narrow band of great stuff but outside of that it's more meh. 

[Ginx snewx]

Yes, it would be but between 00z and 03z it looks like you get one or two hundreths of an inch. That sounding is a bit misleading for ptype forecasting during the height of the storm.

I do agree tyhat someone gets croaked. Hopefully it's me but I'm not terribly optimistic.

there's a 6 hour period of isothermal snow

[CT Rain]

there's a 6 hour period of isothermal snow

 

I'd say there's a 6 hour period that's "close" to isothermal snow - I can't really say either way to be honest. 

[quizplz]

I know this may be too early to ask, but when do you think watches may go up?

Friday I would think.

[CoastalWx]

I don't think there is a doubt that the CCB probably would be rather intense, but it's more how long it lasts and exactly where. 

[leesun]

every one is snarky lately, lots of egos on Twitter today. I am still pissed at NWS NYC for Sunday,Ryan nailed it as well as some here. This upcoming storm could be trouble for NWS too. Could be a rain to heavy flip causing big traffic issue's. If it stays as modeled I'd warn right to the coast regardless of criteria. The warning system is broken. DOT better be on the ball, weekend storms mean calling in OT help. Spend the money that you haven't had to use.

This storm throws up red flags all over the place.  Right now, on models. it is "threading the needle".  But a lot can go wrong with this, even this close in.  Don't blame BOX for being conservative.  I see this as a no win for BOX.  They are going to have to put up warnings and there is probably going to be many that don't reaching criteria

[Ginx snewx]

I'd say there's a 6 hour period that's "close" to isothermal snow - I can't really say either way to be honest.

true, but I'd lean snow at plus .5 with TTs near 40, VVs plus 24-40 -ubars with wet bulbs upper 20s, jmho

[Baroclinic Zone]

Yeah was just throwing out some thoughts. It seems like when you're relying on the CCB you get a really narrow band of great stuff but outside of that it's more meh. 

I'd say if we have a more mature system as it comes off HAT than we should see more precip thrown back into the cold sector.

[Ginx snewx]

This storm throws up red flags all over the place. Right now, on models. it is "threading the needle". But a lot can go wrong with this, even this close in. Don't blame BOX for being conservative. I see this as a no win for BOX. They are going to have to put up warnings and there is probably going to be many that don't reaching criteria

which is absolutely fine.

[Chrisrotary12]

The hi-res Nam is nice.

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_12z/cloop.html

[CT Valley Snowman]

my RGEM is not loading past hour 36, does anyone know how it looks?

[dryslot]

12z GGEM looks to be slightly west of 0z, Pretty toast in SE MA, RI and CT

[CoastalWx]

Canadian isn't very impressive until it gets past our latitude.

[mahk_webstah]

Canadian isn't very impressive until it gets past our latitude.

define "our"

lol

[CoastalWx]

define "our"

lol

 

SNE, but by then it's in Nova Scotia.

[ORH_wxman]

define "our"

lol

 

You are too far NW for much on the Canadian if that is what you are asking.

 

 

It just doesn't really go to town until more in the gulf of maine...still a decent CCB for E MA, but just not what we're looking for if we are trying for 6"+...its probably a lot of slop with like 3-5", though perhaps a narrow area from like Ray to ORH could get warning snows on that.

[Damage In Tolland]

Sounds like GGEM is still west of GFS

[jamesnichols89]

GGEM is west of GFS, not what you want if you live on the coast.

[weathafella]

CMC would be disappointing but not surprising.

[mahk_webstah]

You are too far NW for much on the Canadian if that is what you are asking.

 

 

It just doesn't really go to town until more in the gulf of maine...still a decent CCB for E MA, but just not what we're looking for if we are trying for 6"+...its probably a lot of slop with like 3-5", though perhaps a narrow area from like Ray to ORH could get warning snows on that.

I would never ask about MBY!

 

In reality the Euro has been rock steady and it will probably win, although what you are describing about the GGEM is not unrealistic in this pattern I'd think

[Damage In Tolland]

Is that GGEM better or worse than last nite's run?

[CoastalWx]

Is that GGEM better or worse than last nite's run?

 

It's actually a bit weaker with the CCB and as a whole.

[Lava Rock]

12z GGEM looks to be slightly west of 0z, Pretty toast in SE MA, RI and CT

bring it up here please.

[WinterWolf]

Good thing you're not invested Kevin until 7 pm tonight...cuz latest trends seem to be diminishing this system on guidance.

[dryslot]

bring it up here please.

 

If i could i would bring them all up..............lol

[JC-CT]

Is that GGEM better or worse than last nite's run?

 

snow/rain/snow

[Damage In Tolland]

snow/rain/snow

The chances of the interior(meaning you) of getting plain rain are very low