Possible Weekend Snowstorm, Jan 24 2015

[ORH_wxman]

GFS has a nice dynamic CCB with heavy snow...but still doesn't quite phase all the energy smoothly. It's part of the reason the taint gets about to the pike before things crash.

[dryslot]

Got precip up here to, Good run

[toller65]

SW Maine all snow on the Goofus?

[HoarfrostHubb]

That swath around Bob's house looks like a great spot onthis run. Goes to town for a while.

 

974 near the benchmark

 

edit  978   need glasses

[Baroclinic Zone]

SW Maine all snow on the Goofus?

Yes.

[CoastalWx]

Benchmark low with taint to the pike is not easy to do.

[CT Rain]

Rain to snow. Pretty decent looking storm on the GFS. Let's see what Dr. No does! 

[Baroclinic Zone]

That swath around Bob's house looks like a great spot onthis run. Goes to town for a while.

 

974 near the benchmark

Looks sloppy but I should get some light snows on the initial WAA burst before 850s torch and than it's a waiting game on how fast the SLP can go to town and crash heights.  An hour or 2 will make a big difference in totals for sure.

[Damage In Tolland]

I have a difficult time believing that track and profile would get sleet to the pike. That looks like an sll out snow thump within 30 miles of shore

[CT Rain]

Benchmark low with taint to the pike is not easy to do.

 

Yeah - if there's a way to do it it's when you have absolutely zero high pressure to the north. 

[Damage In Tolland]

It's not going to start as rain inland. No way

[HoarfrostHubb]

Yeah - if there's a way to do it it's when you have absolutely zero high pressure to the north. 

Funny no one has mentioned that

[CT Rain]

It's not going to start as rain inland. No way

 

Thanks for the analysis. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

It's not going to start as rain inland. No way

Does the "new and improved" GFS show any type of warm bias?

[ORH_wxman]

Does the "new and improved" GFS show any type of warm bias?

 

 

We havent really had a good system to test it out on yet.

[Damage In Tolland]

Does the "new and improved" GFS show any type of warm bias?

Considering the srefs have better verification scores the answer is yes

[CoastalWx]

I'm pretty sure I read a few weeks ago it does have a warm bias in the lower levels .

[dryslot]

Does the "new and improved" GFS show any type of warm bias?

 

Don't know about that one, I am hoping it is getting a clue on coastal cyclogenesis.................lol

[Damage In Tolland]

It looks like it also has its fathers SE bias on esst coast lows

[ORH_wxman]

I'm pretty sure I read a few weeks ago it does have a warm bias in the lower levels .

 

Wouldn't surprise me. The old one had a severe one on coastal systems, so even increasing the resolution probably couldn't get rid of all of it.

 

It's funny looking at the soundings vs the 2D map on the GFS...it looks like the 850 0C line gets about 10-15 miles NW of BOS at the height, but when you look at the soundings, its like isothermal at 0.5C, lol. It's not the usual +2C or something you might expect looking at that.

 

This is a good example of how much the dynamic height crash is going to matter in those marginal areas.

[quizplz]

SW Maine all snow on the Goofus?

I don't think that was ever an issue for SW Maine for this storm.

[quizplz]

The GFS is coming around a bit.  Looks like heavy snow to about GYX and south.  Lewiston/Auburn on north sees very little.

[CoastalWx]

Wouldn't surprise me. The old one had a severe one on coastal systems, so even increasing the resolution probably couldn't get rid of all of it.

 

It's funny looking at the soundings vs the 2D map on the GFS...it looks like the 850 0C line gets about 10-15 miles NW of BOS at the height, but when you look at the soundings, its like isothermal at 0.5C, lol. It's not the usual +2C or something you might expect looking at that.

 

This is a good example of how much the dynamic height crash is going to matter in those marginal areas.

 

Like you said, it doesn't quite bomb it and develop a nice coherent CCB. Looks like best blob of precip is near the Cape with the real good height falls and low level frontogenesis.  NAM is doing the same, it can't quite close off H5 in time.

[Ginx snewx]

Wouldn't surprise me. The old one had a severe one on coastal systems, so even increasing the resolution probably couldn't get rid of all of it.

It's funny looking at the soundings vs the 2D map on the GFS...it looks like the 850 0C line gets about 10-15 miles NW of BOS at the height, but when you look at the soundings, its like isothermal at 0.5C, lol. It's not the usual +2C or something you might expect looking at that.

This is a good example of how much the dynamic height crash is going to matter in those marginal areas.

this would be fun,

[CT Rain]

Like you said, it doesn't quite bomb it and develop a nice coherent CCB. Looks like best blob of precip is near the Cape with the real good height falls and low level frontogenesis.  NAM is doing the same, it can't quite close off H5 in time.

 

Anyone think the precip shield will wind up being even more compact than modeled? It seems to me the models tend to "overdo" the precip shileds when you have one of these compact nukes feeding off DCVA as opposed to the QPF field not being broad enough for the more generic big warm advection/DCVA storms. 

[CT Rain]

this would be fun,

 

Yes, it would be but between 00z and 03z it looks like you get one or two hundreths of an inch. That sounding is a bit misleading for ptype forecasting during the height of the storm.

 

I do agree tyhat someone gets croaked. Hopefully it's me but I'm not terribly optimistic. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

That swath around Bob's house looks like a great spot onthis run. Goes to town for a while.

974 near the benchmark

edit 978 need glasses

It doesn't look all that great to me. I think we taint/rain for a decent amount of time with that look. The million dollar question is how fast do we flip back over. As Bob noted, 1 or 2 hour differences are huge.

I think the box map is pretty good. I think that illustrates the most likely scenario for this area.

Flips to heavy snow for a short period and we pick up a couple of inches

[Jack66]

I know this may be too early to ask, but when do you think watches may go up?

[leesun]

SLP on GFS appears to me to be too far north initially based on H5. 

[CoastalWx]

Anyone think the precip shield will wind up being even more compact than modeled? It seems to me the models tend to "overdo" the precip shileds when you have one of these compact nukes feeding off DCVA as opposed to the QPF field not being broad enough for the more generic big warm advection/DCVA storms. 

 

If the GFS is right, it's more concentrated further SE IMO. You aren't getting a ton of moisture advection when it's forced out in one area leaving a narrow CCB. But, that is only speaking of the GFS verbatim.