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Possible Weekend Snowstorm, Jan 24 2015

ineedsnow

By ineedsnow,
in New England

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

Oh good!  Although I feel that anything more than 4 inches is a win up here.  I don't have any real sense of storms like this which have the precip constricted on the nw side.  With this track I would've though we could get a nice deformation band somewhere up here.  I guess like usual the 700 track is important.  Baroclinic zone said the GFS I think had it going PVD to Bos....great for Ray but no for us.

 

Once it moved off the coast it was more strung out like 06z, It did get a little more precip back NW though but it was weaker and ended up about the same as 06z, FWIW and that is not much, Should start to get close to the RGEM range, Maybe just outside but will have a general idea at 12z where it is down south along the coast

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ineedsnow

ineedsnow

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Ya nam doesnt really matter right now but im interested to see what the gfs and other models do

We're still about another 3 or 4 runs away from the NAM being semi-useful.

The RGEM today should start seeing the beginning of the event, but even the RGEM will be much more useful tonight at 00z.

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

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Once it moved off the coast it was more strung out like 06z, It did get a little more precip back NW though but it was weaker and ended up about the same as 06z, FWIW and that is not much, Should start to get close to the RGEM range, Maybe just outside but will have a general idea at 12z where it is down south along the coast

Well perhaps what we can take, if it is a good short term model, is whether it is showing us good stuff within the 48 hour short range timeframe.  In other words, good stuff early in the run that can translate to a better result later.

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TalcottWx

TalcottWx

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Euro last night was interesting to say the least. Talk about a tight demarcation between potential mix and heavy snow at points! That could be an absolute crushing in Weymouth up to me and Ray. I'm a little more confident naturally up here in Andover as we are potentially in that nice mid level deformation area. I don't buy this bizarre situation where it would be mixing up here and heavy snow in Boston lol. I guess I'm leaning on climo in the end?

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TalcottWx

TalcottWx

Posted
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12z RGEM is significantly more amped than the 12z NAM...but we can't see past 48h, It will be more useful tonight.

I honestly thought we might see more model swings leading up to this event but it hasn't happened. We've pretty much had a clue the GFS was out to lunch at the beginning and now it's come toward euro. Actually kind of surreal after the terrible start.

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
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I honestly thought we might see more model swings leading up to this event but it hasn't happened. We've pretty much had a clue the GFS was out to lunch at the beginning and now it's come toward euro. Actually kind of surreal after the terrible start.

It is very much like we used to see.  This progressive flow has just wreaked havoc on models.

 

I still think this will give us a surprise or 2...for better or for worse

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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Euro has been steadfast, sucks having to wait 12 hrs in between useful model runs

 

 

Relatively speaking...last night's less dynamic run was certainly warmer...esp along/SE of a BOS-IJD line.

 

We want to see the more dynamic solution that it had yesterday.

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

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yea things have gone downhill since the 962 run for sure, oh well some snow and hope for more. Its a start

962 is rare....

and sometimes those runs show a deep storm, weaken a bit but in the end come back to a deeper storm.  If we hit 975 thats a helluva storm.  Maybe this mornings RGEM and NAM deeper early in the run are a harbinger to going back to a deeper storm.

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