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Possible Weekend Snowstorm, Jan 24 2015

ineedsnow

By ineedsnow,
in New England

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted

Steve, even BOX points this out in their AM Disco

 

 

 

A FEW IMPORTANT THINGS TO REMEMBER. THE MODELS ARE NOW IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK/INTENSITY...BUT THE STORM IS STILL MORE THAN
96 HOURS OUT IN THE MODEL WORLD. DATA CAN STILL UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT
SHIFTS IN TRACK AND INTENSITY IN THIS TIME RANGE...SO NOTHING IS SET
IN STONE. WE DO NOT HAVE A HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SO THE ANTECEDENT AIRMASS IS VERY
MARGINAL. THAT MEANS A SUBTLE SHIFT IN TRACK CAN MAKE A HUGE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN RAIN VS. HEAVY WET SNOW. THE LACK OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL ALSO LIMIT THE BAROCLINICITY THAT
WE OFTEN SEE WITH WINTER STORM/S. PRECIPITATION SHIELD MAY NOT
REACH AS FAR NORTHWEST AS WE OFTEN SEE BASED ON THE GIVEN TRACK.
THEREFORE...STILL UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION MAKES IT
NORTHWEST OF I-95. ITS POSSIBLE THAT OUR NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING
AREA IS SHUT OUT. WHILE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SWATH OF 6 OR
MORE INCHES OF WET SNOW FOR A PORTION OF THE REGION...THERE IS QUITE
A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHARP CUTOFF IN QPF AND
UNCERTAINTY IN THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL LIKELY MAKE THIS A VERY
DIFFICULT FORECAST IN THE COMING DAYS.

 

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted

I think what Ginxy means, is that when we think of thread the needle, alot of things are wrong with a system, and much needs to go right to get it to happen.  Like he said, it's a big storm and it's coming up the coast, and it's either to far east for alot of us, or it's close enough for a sig snowstorm.  Also that term is so overused at times that it gets very tiresome.  

 

And there is always lots that can go wrong with any system.  And yes there are things that could make this a non event, I do realize that completely.  Time will tell.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

I think what Ginxy means, is that when we think of thread the needle, alot of things are wrong with a system, and much needs to go right to get it to happen. Like he said, it's a big storm and it's coming up the coast, and it's either to far east for alot of us, or it's close enough for a sig snowstorm. Also that term is so overused at times that it gets very tiresome.

Well we just explained why it's "thread the needle". If you don't like the term then it's just a semantics argument.

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted

Well we just explained why it's "thread the needle". If you don't like the term then it's just a semantics argument.

I was typing while you were explaining so I didn't see your post.  And I agree with you completely.  Not trying to be argumentative at all, was just pointing out what Ginxy might be getting at.  Maybe I'm all wrong as well?  Hey, give me some snow, and I'll be happy...don't need a foot, 5 inches would be nice :-).

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The 4 Seasons

The 4 Seasons

Posted
Posted

To me the 06Z GFS Ens mean is very similar to the 00Z Ens mean and just a hair SE of the BM.

 

This far out I don't think the shift SE in the 06Z GFS was anything strange or unusual. Things like that are to be expected at this timeframe. We'll have to see if its a trend or a wobble. If this thing was tracking over the lakes, most would probably say the 06Z run is consistent with the 00Z and with the 18Z as well.

 

 

The 00Z EC ensembles were very clustered together and similar to the operational.

 

 

Not sure if this was mentioned or how much its worth but the 00Z CMC ensemble mean is sub 990 just a tick south east of the benchmark.

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted

You are wrong ...really wrong.

There is a chance he could be right...this year is very finicky so far.  However, he is doing this to safeguard himself from getting invested and then being let down.  It's only weather, and you, me and him will still have to get up for work tomorrow regardless of what the models show lol.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

With as small a precip field this has, It will be extremely critical to track as there will be some big winners and some big losers in about a 100 mile or less swath, And is the case in a few of these storms and the last one is probably a great example, The day of the storms sometimes these will be east or west some of where its modeled which will make this one even more of a nail biter

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted

When I think of thread the needle, I usually think of a situation where if you are too far west you miss and if you are too far right you miss.

 

It's all metaphoric, so you could say that it is thread the needle to have everything right to get the storm up the coast at all.

 

Again, what Steve (and I) believe is that temps are not as a big an issue as missing OTS.

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted

"It's all metaphoric, so you could say that it is thread the needle to have everything right to get the storm up the coast at all."


 


Yes, this is what I was trying to say in an earlier post.  When you get a sig storm, things almost always have to go just right.  Also, I realize that this slipping east is a concern for most...and perhaps this has even less wiggle room than some other events.


 


Wouldn't it be Ironic, if this outperforms the next Tuesday system even though next week looks better on paper right now?  Still a chance we get skunked all together by both....that too is in the back of my mind.

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